{ "meta": { "title": "The Gas-to-AI Tracker", "publisher": "Sunya Scoop Research", "version": "3.8.5", "published": "2026-04-29", "description": "The complete record of every disclosed oil & gas operator commitment to data-center-linked gas supply.", "contact": "hello@sunyascoop.com", "data_through": "2026-04-29", "deal_count": 61, "gross_mmcfd": 21108.4, "deal_count_in_total": 56, "schema_version": "3.3", "gross_pct_us_dry_production": 19.6, "label": "Reconciled Edition \u00b7 Apr 28 + 5 deals + Jupiter correction", "us_dry_production_reference_bcfd": 107.7, "us_dry_production_reference_year": 2026, "us_dry_production_source": "EIA STEO Apr 2026", "tracker_count": 56, "watchlist_count": 5, "total_count": 61, "gross_bcfd": 21.11, "version_label": "Conviction Layer \u00b7 Phase 1 Complete + Methodology", "updated_at": "2026-04-29" }, "deals": [ { "id": "eqt-homer-city", "name": "Homer City AI Campus", "op": "EQT", "op_ticker": "NYSE: EQT", "cp": "Homer City Redevelopment", "cp_type": "DC developer (GIP-backed)", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 645, "mmbtud": 665000, "mw": 4400, "lon": -79.18, "lat": 40.53, "basin": "Appalachia (Marcellus / Utica)", "location": "Indiana County, PA", "state": "PA", "date": "2025-07-15", "status": "AIP", "status_detail": "Agreement in principle (July 2025); turbines ordered, first power expected 2027. Not yet a definitive commercial agreement.", "term_years": null, "headline": "4.4 GW gas-fired campus on retired coal site; largest US gas-fired plant announced to date.", "structure": "Exclusive gas supply agreement. EQT serves as exclusive partner sourcing and supplying natural gas to the 4.4 GW gas facility powering the 3,200-acre AI/HPC campus. Supply runs through Texas Eastern Transmission and Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage pipeline systems for redundancy.", "structure_detail": "Up to 665,000 MMBtu/day (~645 MMcf/d at 1,032 Btu/cf). Seven GE Vernova 7HA.02 gas turbines ordered. Kiewit Power Constructors as EPC. First turbine deliveries 2026, first power 2027. Power campus independent of grid.", "counterparty_note": "Homer City Redevelopment is backed by Knighthead Capital and Kiewit Power Constructors; Corey Hessen (former Talen Energy CEO) runs HCR as CEO. Tenant is TBD but the campus is marketed to major hyperscalers and HPC operators.", "volume_basis": "Operator-disclosed firm gas: 665,000 MMBtu/d per EQT/Homer City Redevelopment July 2025 Agreement in Principle. 665,000 MMBtu/d \u00f7 (4,400 MW \u00d7 24 hours) = 6.30 MMBtu/MWh, which is consistent with a modern CCGT running near full load (not 50% utilization). Actual dispatch and capacity factor at first power (expected 2027) will depend on PJM market conditions, AI campus demand profile, and turbine staging. Earlier tracker versions incorrectly described this as \"~50% utilization\"; corrected v2.5.0.", "economics_note": "One of largest single-site natural gas purchases in North American history per HCR. Project capex estimated at $10B+ implied by turbine order + 4.4 GW site scope.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Toby Z. Rice, President & CEO, EQT", "quote": "This project is a win for Pennsylvania and for America. We are proud to be named the exclusive partner to provide the energy needed to power the Homer City Energy Campus and the future of AI.", "context": "HCR press release, July 15, 2025" }, { "speaker": "Corey Hessen, CEO, Homer City Redevelopment", "quote": "This agreement ensures long-term energy security for the data center campus, while demonstrating our commitment to powering the future with Pennsylvania gas, Pennsylvania power and ultimately, Pennsylvania data centers.", "context": "HCR press release, July 15, 2025" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Homer City Redevelopment", "title": "Agreement in Principle for EQT to Supply Nation's Largest Natural Gas-Powered Data Center Campus", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250715006970/en/Homer-City-Redevelopment-Announces-Agreement-in-Principle-for-EQT-Corporation-to-Supply-Nations-Largest-Natural-Gas-Powered-Data-Center-Campus", "date": "2025-07-15", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Homer City Redevelopment", "title": "Corporate press release archive", "url": "https://www.homercityredevelopment.com/post/press-release-homer-city-redevelopment-announces-agreement-in-principle-for-eqt-corporation-to-supp", "date": "2025-07-15", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "EQT Snags Two Natural Gas Supply Contracts, Including for Massive 4.4 GW AI Campus in Pennsylvania", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/eqt-snags-two-natural-gas-supply-contracts-including-for-massive-44-gw-ai-campus-in-pennsylvania/", "date": "2025-07-18", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "volume", "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "S&P Global Commodity Insights", "title": "US producer EQT unlocks growth option with 1.4 Bcf/d in firm gas supply deals", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/072125-interview-us-producer-eqt-unlocks-growth-option-with-14-bcfd-in-firm-gas-supply-deals", "date": "2025-07-21", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Pipeline & Gas Journal", "title": "EQT to Supply Natural Gas for Data Center Campus in Pennsylvania", "url": "https://pgjonline.com/news/2025/july/eqt-to-supply-natural-gas-for-data-center-campus-in-pennsylvania", "date": "2025-07-15", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "pipeline_route", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Nasdaq", "title": "Homer City Redevelopment Announces Agreement in Principle for EQT Corporation", "url": "https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/homer-city-redevelopment-announces-agreement-principle-eqt-corporation-supply-nations", "date": "2025-07-15", "source_class": "NEWS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ] } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "positioning_only", "mw_disclosed": 4400, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "mixed", "contract_binding_status": "agreement_in_principle", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "non_definitive_status" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "agreement_in_principle", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.45, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Homer City, PA", "data_center_location": "Indiana County, PA", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 3, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 8, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB-", "moody": "Baa3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "EQT" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "disclosed_secured", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_note": "7\u00d7 GE Vernova 7HA.02 gas turbines ordered (per EQT / Homer City Redevelopment July 2025 Agreement in Principle, BusinessWire Jul 15 2025). Kiewit Power Constructors as EPC. First deliveries 2026, first power 2027.", "key_public_statements": [ { "speaker": "Corey Hessen", "role": "CEO, Homer City Redevelopment", "date": "2025-07-15", "occasion": "Homer City Redevelopment / EQT agreement-in-principle press release", "quote": "EQT is synonymous with Pennsylvania energy and American innovation, and we are thrilled to have them as a partner for this project. This agreement ensures long-term energy security for the data center campus, while demonstrating our commitment to powering the future with Pennsylvania gas, Pennsylvania power and ultimately, Pennsylvania data centers.", "source_url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250715006970/en/Homer-City-Redevelopment-Announces-Agreement-in-Principle-for-EQT-Corporation-to-Supply-Nations-Largest-Natural-Gas-Powered-Data-Center-Campus", "source_publisher": "BusinessWire", "confidence": "verbatim_verified" }, { "speaker": "Toby Z. Rice", "role": "President and CEO, EQT Corporation", "date": "2025-07-15", "occasion": "Homer City Redevelopment / EQT agreement-in-principle press release", "quote": "This project is a win for Pennsylvania and for America. We are proud to be named the exclusive partner to provide the energy needed to power the Homer City Energy Campus and the future of AI.", "source_url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250715006970/en/Homer-City-Redevelopment-Announces-Agreement-in-Principle-for-EQT-Corporation-to-Supply-Nations-Largest-Natural-Gas-Powered-Data-Center-Campus", "source_publisher": "BusinessWire", "confidence": "verbatim_verified" } ], "key_public_statements_confidence": "verbatim_verified", "equipment_slot": "ordered" }, { "id": "eqt-shippingport", "name": "Shippingport Power Station", "op": "EQT", "op_ticker": "NYSE: EQT", "cp": "Frontier Group of Companies", "cp_type": "Industrial site owner / brownfield developer", "type": "ipp", "mmcfd": 800, "mw": 3500, "lon": -80.41, "lat": 40.63, "basin": "Appalachia (Marcellus / Utica)", "location": "Beaver County, PA", "state": "PA", "date": "2025-07-15", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Announced", "term_years": null, "headline": "$3.2B redevelopment of retired Bruce Mansfield coal plant; 800 MMcf/d of EQT gas to power 3-5 GW gas station feeding a behind-the-meter DC plus 1+ GW of excess to PJM.", "structure": "EQT is the sole gas supplier to Shippingport Power Station, sourced from Marcellus and Utica shales. National Fuel Gas Supply Corp (NYSE: NFG) transports a significant portion of the gas. Frontier has secured a data center tenant (unnamed) for the majority of power.", "structure_detail": "~800 MMcf/d sourced at site of former 2.7 GW Bruce Mansfield coal plant (retired 2019). 660-acre Shippingport Industrial Park. Excess >1 GW goes to PJM. East Daley estimates total power between 3-5 GW depending on plant specs.", "counterparty_note": "Frontier Group of Companies is a Buffalo-based private brownfield redeveloper specializing in liability transfers of industrial sites. DC tenant is under NDA but per East Daley likely to be >2 GW load \u2014 largest single DC project East Daley tracks in Pennsylvania.", "volume_basis": "Operator-disclosed firm MMcf/d from company press release.", "economics_note": "Announced $3.2 billion investment by Frontier. 15,000 construction jobs + 300+ permanent jobs. Expected $6B+ in economic activity to Pennsylvania.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Toby Z. Rice, President & CEO, EQT", "quote": "As a Pennsylvania company, we are especially proud to be a part of this important project, which highlights the critical role of domestic energy in powering economic growth.", "context": "Frontier/EQT/NFG joint press release, July 15, 2025" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "The Frontier Group of Companies", "title": "Frontier to Transform Bruce Mansfield Power Plant into State-of-the-Art Natural Gas Power Plant", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250715103342/en/The-Frontier-Group-of-Companies-to-Transform-Bruce-Mansfield-Power-Plant-into-State-of-the-Art-Natural-Gas-Power-Plant-Supporting-Americas-Energy-Goals-and-Pennsylvanias-Economic-Growth", "date": "2025-07-15", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "volume", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Frontier Group of Companies", "title": "Shippingport Power Station project page", "url": "https://frontier-companies.com/the-frontier-group-of-companies-to-transform-bruce-mansfield-power-plant-into-state-of-the-art-natural-gas-power-plant-supporting-americas-energy-goals-and-pennsylvanias-economic-gr/", "date": "2025-07-15", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "National Fuel Gas Company (IR)", "title": "The Frontier Group of Companies to Transform Bruce Mansfield Power Plant", "url": "https://investor.nationalfuelgas.com/news-and-events/press-releases/press-releases-details/2025/The-Frontier-Group-of-Companies-to-Transform-Bruce-Mansfield-Power-Plant-into-State-of-the-Art-Natural-Gas-Power-Plant-Supporting-Americas-Energy-Goals-and-Pennsylvanias-Economic-Growth/default.aspx", "date": "2025-07-15", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "East Daley Analytics", "title": "EQT Inks Supply Deal to Fuel Giant Data Center", "url": "https://eastdaley.com/the-burner-tip/eqt-inks-supply-deal-to-fuel-giant-data-center", "date": "2025-07-24", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "EQT Snags Two Natural Gas Supply Contracts", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/eqt-snags-two-natural-gas-supply-contracts-including-for-massive-44-gw-ai-campus-in-pennsylvania/", "date": "2025-07-18", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Marcellus Drilling News", "title": "Frontier Group Converting Coal to Gas-Fired Plant, NatGas from EQT", "url": "https://marcellusdrilling.com/2025/07/frontier-group-converting-coal-to-gas-fired-plant-natgas-from-eqt/", "date": "2025-07-16", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "volume" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 3500, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "mixed", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.807, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Shippingport, PA", "data_center_location": "Beaver County, PA", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 13, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB-", "moody": "Baa3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "EQT" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Gas redirects to capacity market, peaker plant, or industrial. Possible margin compression but asset operates.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "eqt-duke", "name": "EQT\u2013Duke Energy 10-year SPA", "op": "EQT", "op_ticker": "NYSE: EQT", "cp": "Duke Energy", "cp_type": "Investor-owned utility", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 800, "lon": -80.84, "lat": 35.23, "basin": "Appalachia \u2192 Transco Zone 5 (NC)", "location": "North Carolina / Duke Energy Carolinas service territory", "state": "NC", "date": "2025-06-12", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Binding 10-year firm supply", "term_years": 10, "headline": "800 MMcf/d 10-year firm to Duke, routed via MVP and Williams SESE \u2014 anchoring Carolinas' AI power buildout.", "structure": "10-year firm gas supply agreement starting 2027. Uses EQT's MVP (Mountain Valley Pipeline) capacity acquired via July 2024 Equitrans acquisition. Delivered into Transco Zone 5 via Williams Southeast Supply Enhancement (SESE) expansion, 1.6 Bcf/d, in-service Q4 2027.", "structure_detail": "EQT originally disclosed supply to 'investment-grade utilities'; Argus and Zacks sources later confirmed Duke as the 800 MMcf/d counterparty. Duke plans 5 GW of new gas generation by 2029 to meet data center load. EQT expects corporate gas price differential to narrow from ~60\u00a2/mmBtu (2025) to ~30\u00a2/mmBtu by 2028 on this and the Southern deal. Both contracts represent ~20% of EQT's current production.", "counterparty_note": "Duke Energy Carolinas serves data center alley for VA/NC/SC, including campuses from Amazon, Google, Microsoft. Investment grade (A-/A3). Duke's 2024 Carolinas Resource Plan targets 5 GW new CCGT by 2029.", "volume_basis": "Triangulated via Argus reporting + EQT disclosures. Confirmed 800 MMcf/d to Duke, 400 MMcf/d to Southern.", "economics_note": "Gas arbitraged from Tetco M-2 index (2024 spot avg $1.67/MMBtu) to higher-value Transco Zone 5 South. MVP capacity of 2.0 Bcf/d (expanding to 2.6 Bcf/d) is now a strategic asset post-Equitrans acquisition.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "S&P Global Commodity Insights", "title": "US producer EQT unlocks growth option with 1.4 Bcf/d in firm gas supply deals", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/072125-interview-us-producer-eqt-unlocks-growth-option-with-14-bcfd-in-firm-gas-supply-deals", "date": "2025-07-21", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Argus Media", "title": "EQT signs 10-year gas deals with Duke, Southern", "url": "https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2697957-eqt-signs-10-year-gas-deals-with-duke-southern", "date": "2025-06-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "volume" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Pipeline and Gas Journal", "title": "EQT Strikes 10-Year Gas Deals with Duke, Southern to Fuel Power Sector Shift", "url": "https://pgjonline.com/news/2025/june/eqt-strikes-10-year-gas-deals-with-duke-southern-to-fuel-power-sector-shift", "date": "2025-06-16", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2029, "FID_status": "in-service", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.637, "dedupe_group_id": "southeast-eqt-duke-southern-transco", "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Southeast US (Duke service territory)", "data_center_location": "North Carolina / Duke Energy Carolinas service territory", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 4, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2029", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Microsoft", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 4, "investability_total": 15, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AAA", "moody": "Aaa", "tier": "highest_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Microsoft" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB-", "moody": "Baa3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "EQT" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Gas redirects to capacity market, peaker plant, or industrial. Possible margin compression but asset operates.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Prefers PPA + nuclear/renewable matching; gas tolerated for backup/peaking. Public Climate Pledge constrains gas-tied long-term commitments. Will accept fuel-cell or low-emissions gas if narrative survives ESG review.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "eqt-southern", "name": "EQT\u2013Southern Company 10-year SPA", "op": "EQT", "op_ticker": "NYSE: EQT", "cp": "Southern Company", "cp_type": "Investor-owned utility", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 400, "lon": -84.39, "lat": 33.75, "basin": "Appalachia \u2192 Transco Zone 4 (GA)", "location": "Georgia / Southern Company service territory", "state": "GA", "date": "2025-06-12", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Binding 10-year firm supply", "term_years": 10, "headline": "400 MMcf/d to Southern Company's GA/AL DC load via MVP + SESE; paired with the Duke deal as EQT's utility power anchor.", "structure": "10-year firm gas supply starting 2027. Paired structurally with the Duke deal \u2014 both routed through MVP, both delivering into Transco corridor via Williams' SESE expansion.", "structure_detail": "Georgia Power (Southern subsidiary) has disclosed 8+ GW of incremental forecast load growth through 2030 driven by data centers. This deal helps firm that gas supply.", "counterparty_note": "Southern Company (A/A3) is the parent of Georgia Power, Alabama Power, Mississippi Power. Georgia is the #3 US data center market after VA and TX.", "volume_basis": "Triangulated via Argus reporting + EQT disclosures.", "economics_note": "Same arbitrage economics as Duke: shifts gas from Tetco M-2 to Transco Zone 4. Combined Duke+Southern volume (1.2 Bcf/d) is roughly 20% of EQT's 6.5 Bcf/d production base.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "S&P Global Commodity Insights", "title": "US producer EQT unlocks growth option with 1.4 Bcf/d in firm gas supply deals", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/072125-interview-us-producer-eqt-unlocks-growth-option-with-14-bcfd-in-firm-gas-supply-deals", "date": "2025-07-21", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Argus Media", "title": "EQT signs 10-year gas deals with Duke, Southern", "url": "https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2697957-eqt-signs-10-year-gas-deals-with-duke-southern", "date": "2025-06-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "volume" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2029, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.637, "dedupe_group_id": "southeast-eqt-duke-southern-transco", "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Southeast US (Southern Company territory)", "data_center_location": "Georgia / Southern Company service territory", "cost_recovery": "general-ratepayer", "critical_path_constraint": "permitting", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2029", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 14, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB-", "moody": "Baa3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "EQT" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Gas redirects to capacity market, peaker plant, or industrial. Possible margin compression but asset operates.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "chevron-msft", "name": "Chevron\u2013Microsoft\u2013Engine No. 1 Exclusivity", "op": "Chevron", "op_ticker": "NYSE: CVX", "cp": "Microsoft", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 311, "mw": 2500, "lon": -102.35, "lat": 31.89, "basin": "Permian / Delaware", "location": "West Texas", "state": "TX", "date": "2026-03-31", "status": "Exclusivity", "status_detail": "Exclusivity agreement announced April 2026 between Chevron, Microsoft, and Engine No. 1; per Reuters, no definitive commercial agreement and commercial terms not yet finalized. First power targeted late 2027.", "term_years": null, "headline": "Chevron and Microsoft signed exclusivity for a West Texas gas-fired power hub scalable from 2.5 GW to 5.0 GW, colocated with Microsoft's AI campus.", "structure": "Three-party exclusivity agreement between Chevron, Microsoft, and Engine No. 1 on a proposed power generation and electricity offtake arrangement. Builds on Chevron-Engine No. 1-GE Vernova joint venture announced January 28, 2025. Behind-the-meter, colocated with data center, not connected to ERCOT grid.", "structure_detail": "Chevron is developing a 2.5 GW gas-fired power hub in West Texas (Permian), scalable to 5.0 GW. Partnership with Engine No. 1 as financial partner; seven GE Vernova turbines ordered. Colocated with Microsoft AI campus \u2014 behind-the-meter generation to bypass grid delays. Microsoft and Chevron announced exclusivity on talks in April 2026.", "counterparty_note": "Microsoft has disclosed >$80B AI infrastructure spend in FY2025. Engine No. 1 is Chris James's post-activist infrastructure investor (famous for the 2021 Exxon proxy fight). GE Vernova provides turbines and power systems.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and EIA's 2024 CCGT heat rate (~6.3 MMBtu/MWh). 2,500 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 311 MMcf/d. Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, and Data Center Dynamics all describe a 2,500 MW power deal \u2014 no source discloses a gas volume in MMcf/d. Previous v2.3.x releases listed this row at 2,500 MMcf/d, which was a unit error: the 2,500 MW power figure was carried as gas volume. Corrected v2.4.0 to modeled burn.", "economics_note": "Bloomberg/DCD/Reuters reports a ~$7B estimated cost. Chevron produces >1M boe/d in the Permian, making it a natural gas counterparty for the adjacent power plant. This is Chevron's largest US power commitment since the original JV.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Joint statement (Chevron / Microsoft / Engine No. 1)", "quote": "AI is driving significant growth in demand for reliable, always on power, underscoring the importance of energy security and abundant domestic supply.", "context": "March 31, 2026 joint statement" }, { "speaker": "Chris James, Founder & CIO, Engine No. 1", "quote": "By using abundant domestic natural gas to generate electricity directly connected to data centers, we can secure AI leadership, drive productivity gains across our economy, and restore America's standing as an industrial superpower.", "context": "Original JV press release, Jan 28, 2025" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Chevron Corporation", "title": "Chevron Statement Regarding Exclusivity Agreement with Microsoft and Engine No. 1", "url": "https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2026/q1/chevron-statement-regarding-exclusivity-agreement-with-microsoft-and-engine-no-1", "date": "2026-03-31", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Chevron Corporation", "title": "Original JV: Engine No. 1, Chevron, and GE Vernova to Power U.S. Data Centers", "url": "https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/engine-no-1-chevron-and-ge-vernova-power-us-data-centers", "date": "2025-01-28", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Business Wire / Engine No. 1 & Chevron", "title": "Engine No. 1, Chevron, and GE Vernova to Power U.S. Data Centers", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250128934656/en/Engine-No.-1-Chevron-and-GE-Vernova-to-Power-U.S.-Data-Centers", "date": "2025-01-28", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Fortune", "title": "Microsoft and Chevron enter exclusivity deal on powering West Texas data center complex", "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/01/microsoft-chevron-exclusivity-powering-west-texas-data-center-complex/", "date": "2026-04-01", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "Microsoft inks gas deal with Chevron and Engine No. 1 to supply power for AI data centers", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-inks-gas-deal-with-chevron-and-engine-no-1-to-supply-power-for-ai-data-centers/", "date": "2026-04-01", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Knowledge", "title": "Chevron\u2013Microsoft Talks Signal New Phase in AI Power Buildout", "url": "https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/energy-power-supply/chevron-microsoft-talks-signal-new-phase-in-ai-power-buildout", "date": "2026-04-02", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "S&P Global Commodity Insights", "title": "Chevron, Engine No. 1, GE Vernova to power US Southeast, Midwest, West data centers", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/012825-chevron-engine-no-1-ge-vernova-to-power-us-southeast-midwest-west-data-centers", "date": "2025-01-28", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Frontier", "title": "Chevron, GE Vernova, Engine No.1 Join Race to Co-Locate Natural Gas Plants", "url": "https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/energy/article/55264592/chevron-ge-vernova-engine-no1-join-race-to-co-locate-natural-gas-plants-for-us-data-centers", "date": "2025-02-10", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "mmbtud": 320952, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 2500, "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "exclusivity", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed", "non_definitive_status" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "exclusivity", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.3, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "West Texas", "data_center_location": "West Texas (Permian Basin)", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Microsoft", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 2, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 9, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AAA", "moody": "Aaa", "tier": "highest_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Microsoft" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "AA-", "moody": "Aa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Chevron" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Prefers PPA + nuclear/renewable matching; gas tolerated for backup/peaking. Public Climate Pledge constrains gas-tied long-term commitments. Will accept fuel-cell or low-emissions gas if narrative survives ESG review.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "exxon-ccs-plant", "name": "ExxonMobil CCS-enabled data center power plant", "op": "ExxonMobil", "op_ticker": "NYSE: XOM", "cp": "Undisclosed hyperscaler", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (TBD)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 187, "mw": 1500, "lon": -95.37, "lat": 29.76, "basin": "Gulf Coast (Permian gas routed)", "location": "Gulf Coast (TBD), TX", "state": "TX", "date": "2024-12-11", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "In early development; FID targeted late 2026", "term_years": null, "headline": "First Exxon-built commercial power plant ever: >1.5 GW BTM gas plant with >90% CCS serving an undisclosed hyperscaler. Late-2026 FID.", "structure": "Exxon-developed, Exxon-operated power plant using low-CI Permian gas, colocated with data center, using Exxon CCS system to capture 90%+ of CO2 emissions. Grid-independent / 'fully islanded' per Exxon corporate plan. CO2 transported via Exxon's US Gulf Coast CCS network \u2014 the largest in North America (9 Mt/yr contracted).", "structure_detail": "1.0 GW baseline project with ~3.5 Mta CCS capture; upside to >1.5 GW. 2030 corporate plan confirms late-2026 FID target. Builds on Exxon's 5.5 GW of power projects developed since 2001 (previously all for captive operations, like Baytown and Mont Belvieu refineries).", "counterparty_note": "Darren Woods has publicly confirmed 'very few opportunities in the short term to power those data centers and do it in a way that at the same time minimizes, if not completely eliminates, the emissions.' Hyperscaler identity tightly guarded \u2014 Exxon names no customer.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 1500 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 187 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). MW-based disclosure from corporate plan; gas burn at 1.5 GW with 90% CCS (energy penalty) implies ~120 MMcf/d.", "economics_note": "Data centers could account for 20% of Exxon's total CCS addressable market by 2050 per 2030 Plan. First commercial (non-captive) Exxon plant. Exxon's Permian gas is low methane intensity \u2014 strategic fit for hyperscaler emissions targets.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "ExxonMobil corporate plan (December 2024)", "quote": "We'd build a facility that would use natural gas to generate a significant amount (>1.5 gigawatts) of high-reliability electricity for a data center, and look for opportunities to source low-carbon-intensity natural gas like the kind we're producing in the Permian Basin. We'd use carbon capture to remove more than 90 percent of the associated CO2 emissions.", "context": "ExxonMobil corporate.exxonmobil.com" }, { "speaker": "Darren Woods, CEO, ExxonMobil", "quote": "There are very few opportunities in the short term to power those data centers and do it in a way that at the same time minimizes, if not completely eliminates, the emissions.", "context": "December 11, 2024 media call" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "ExxonMobil", "title": "What can't our CCS help decarbonize? (includes >1.5 GW data center plant description)", "url": "https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/what-we-do/delivering-industrial-solutions/carbon-capture-and-storage/steel-ammonia-ai-what-cant-ccs-help-decarbonize", "date": "2024-12-11", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "ExxonMobil Investor Relations", "title": "ExxonMobil Raises Its 2030 Plan \u2014 Transformation Delivering Higher Earnings", "url": "https://investor.exxonmobil.com/company-information/press-releases/detail/1198/exxonmobil-raises-its-2030-plan-transformation", "date": "2025-12-09", "source_class": "EARNINGS", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=EARNINGS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Magazine", "title": "ExxonMobil Planning Large Gas-Fired Plant to Serve Data Centers", "url": "https://www.powermag.com/exxonmobil-planning-large-gas-fired-plant-to-serve-data-centers/", "date": "2024-12-11", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "ExxonMobil plots natural gas power plant to exclusively power data centers", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/exxonmobil-plots-natural-gas-power-plant-to-exclusively-power-data-centers/", "date": "2024-12-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "ExxonMobil Eyeing More Natural Gas Growth, CCS Deals and Push for Data Centers", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/exxonmobil-eyeing-more-natural-gas-growth-ccs-deals-and-push-for-data-centers/", "date": "2025-12-19", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Engineering", "title": "ExxonMobil plans large gas plant with CCS for data center power", "url": "https://www.power-eng.com/gas/exxonmobil-plans-large-gas-plant-with-ccs-for-data-center-power/", "date": "2025-01-27", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Carbon Credits", "title": "ExxonMobil's $20B Low-Carbon Bet in 2030 Plan: Big Emissions Cuts, Bigger Oil Production", "url": "https://carboncredits.com/exxonmobils-20b-low-carbon-bet-in-2030-plan-big-emissions-cuts-bigger-oil-production/", "date": "2025-12-12", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 1500, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "CCS_enabled", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2030, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 192984, "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.25, "dedupe_group_id": "exxon-ccs-cluster", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Gulf Coast (TBD), TX", "data_center_location": "Gulf Coast (TBD), TX", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "financing", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2030", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 10, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "AA-", "moody": "Aa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "ExxonMobil" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45Q", "name": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", "eligibility": "likely", "value": "$60-85/tonne CO2 sequestered (post-2026 IRA enhancement)", "note": "Project must capture and securely store/use CO2 from gas combustion. Eligibility depends on project specifics; consult counsel.", "confidence": "inferred" } ] }, { "id": "exxon-calpine", "name": "ExxonMobil \u00d7 Calpine Baytown CCS (low-carbon power, no DC counterparty)", "op": "ExxonMobil", "op_ticker": "NYSE: XOM", "cp": "Calpine Corporation (Baytown Energy Center; no specific data center customer disclosed)", "cp_type": "IPP", "type": "ipp", "mmcfd": 62, "mw": 500, "lon": -94.97, "lat": 29.74, "basin": "Permian", "location": "Baytown, TX (Houston area)", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-04-23", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "CO2 transport & storage agreement", "term_years": null, "headline": "ExxonMobil to transport and store up to 2 MTA CO2 from Calpine Baytown Energy Center; produces ~500 MW low-carbon power for Texas customers. No specific DC counterparty disclosed.", "structure": "ExxonMobil \u00d7 Calpine signed CCS agreement April 2025 to transport and permanently store up to 2 million metric tons per annum of CO2 from Calpine's Baytown Energy Center, a cogeneration facility near Houston. The Baytown CCS Project produces ~500 MW of low-carbon electricity to Texas customers and steam for industrial use. **No specific data center counterparty has been disclosed.** ExxonMobil's sixth CCS customer; brings total CO2 under contract to ~16 MTA. DOE awarded Baytown $12.5M federal funding (of $270M total cost share). Project execution is \"pending supportive government policy, customer power-sales agreements, and obtaining the required regulatory permits\" per ExxonMobil press release.", "structure_detail": "Baytown Energy Center is a 810 MW cogeneration facility; CCS captures 95% of CO2 from two of three turbines, producing ~500 MW low-carbon power. **Previous tracker version mislabeled this row as \"Quail Run Energy Center.\"** Quail Run is a separate Calpine asset; the ExxonMobil CCS agreement is for Baytown specifically. Corrected v2.5.0.", "counterparty_note": "Calpine is the largest competitive power generator in the US, acquired by Constellation Energy in 2025. Quail Run serves Permian industrial and can be repurposed for DC offtake.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% CF and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh CCGT heat rate. 500 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 62 MMcf/d. No DC-specific gas volume disclosed because the project is power-side, not gas-supply-side, and has no DC counterparty disclosed. Row included in tracker as \"gas-linked AI infrastructure\" only because Calpine has stated CCS-enabled gas plants are intended to serve future data center demand. If a specific DC counterparty is never disclosed, this row may be moved to watchlist in a future release.", "economics_note": "Scope 2 profile is materially improved with 90%+ CCS, which is the metric most hyperscalers target. First IOC-owned major power asset in the Permian positioned for DC customers.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "ExxonMobil", "title": "Calpine, ExxonMobil sign CO2 transportation and storage agreement for power generation project", "url": "https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/news-releases/2025/0423_calpine-exxonmobil-sign-co2-transportation-and-storage-agreement-for-power-generation-project", "date": "2025-04-23", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "pipeline_route", "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "publisher": "Power Engineering", "title": "Calpine strikes new agreement for Texas power generation CCS project", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.power-eng.com/environmental-emissions/carbon-capture-storage/calpine-strikes-new-agreement-for-texas-power-generation-ccs-project/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 500, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "mixed", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "previous_mislabel_quail_run", "project_pending_policy_and_permits", "volume_modeled_not_disclosed", "no_dc_counterparty_disclosed" ], "mmbtud": 63984, "first_power_year": 2028, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.3, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Baytown, TX (Houston area)", "data_center_location": "Baytown, TX (Houston area)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "permitting", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 13, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "AA-", "moody": "Aa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "ExxonMobil" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45Q", "name": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", "eligibility": "likely", "value": "$60-85/tonne CO2 sequestered (post-2026 IRA enhancement)", "note": "Project must capture and securely store/use CO2 from gas combustion. Eligibility depends on project specifics; consult counsel.", "confidence": "inferred" } ] }, { "id": "et-cloudburst", "name": "CloudBurst San Marcos Campus", "op": "Energy Transfer", "op_ticker": "NYSE: ET", "cp": "CloudBurst Data Centers", "cp_type": "DC developer", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 436, "mw": 1200, "mmbtud": 450000, "lon": -97.94, "lat": 29.88, "basin": "TX / San Marcos", "location": "San Marcos, TX", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-02-10", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Conditional on FID; 10+ year firm", "term_years": 10, "headline": "ET's first direct-to-DC gas supply deal: 450,000 MMBtu/d to power 1.2 GW behind-the-meter campus via Oasis Pipeline.", "structure": "Long-term agreement (10+ year firm) to supply up to 450,000 MMBtu/d via ET's Oasis Pipeline to CloudBurst's Next-Generation Data Center campus. BTM power up to ~1.2 GW. Subject to CloudBurst reaching FID with its offtake customer.", "structure_detail": "CloudBurst expected to reach FID in 2025; facility operational Q3 2026. Oasis Pipeline is ET's 588-mile intrastate Permian/Texas gas line.", "counterparty_note": "CloudBurst is a private DC developer focused on behind-the-meter campuses. Anchor customer not disclosed.", "volume_basis": "Operator-disclosed firm MMBtu/d. ~450 MMcf/d equivalent.", "economics_note": "First commercial DC deal for Energy Transfer. Sets precedent for ET's subsequent Oracle, Fermi, and Entergy deals. 140,000-mile ET pipeline footprint is competitive moat.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Energy Transfer (investor relations)", "title": "Energy Transfer and CloudBurst Sign Agreement for Natural Gas Supply to Data Center Project in Central Texas", "url": "https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-and-cloudburst-sign-agreement-natural-gas-supply", "date": "2025-02-10", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "American Public Power Association", "title": "Companies Sign Natural Gas Supply Agreement for Texas Data Center Project", "url": "https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/companies-sign-natural-gas-supply-agreement-texas-data-center-project", "date": "2025-02-13", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Oil & Gas Journal", "title": "Energy Transfer signs deal to provide natural gas to proposed data center in Texas", "url": "https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/55266915/energy-transfer-signs-deal-to-provide-natural-gas-to-proposed-data-center-in-texas", "date": "2025-02-10", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 1200, "basin_group": "Other", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "mixed", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.85, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Other", "generation_location": "San Marcos, TX", "data_center_location": "Travis County, TX", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 7, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "scarcity_score": 4, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 5, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 20, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "key_public_statements": [ { "speaker": "Cynthia Thompson", "role": "Executive Chair, CloudBurst Data Centers, Inc.", "date": "2025-02-10", "occasion": "Energy Transfer / CloudBurst gas supply agreement press release", "quote": "We are very excited about our close relationship with Energy Transfer and feel extremely confident in their ability to provide redundancy through their vast pipeline network and storage capacity. In addition, we will work closely with Energy Transfer to identify additional potential data center sites, on or close to their strategic natural gas pipeline network, using our proprietary site selection software.", "source_url": "https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-and-cloudburst-sign-agreement-natural-gas-supply", "source_publisher": "Energy Transfer IR", "confidence": "verbatim_verified" } ], "key_public_statements_confidence": "verbatim_verified" }, { "id": "et-oracle", "name": "Energy Transfer \u2192 Oracle (3 data centers)", "op": "Energy Transfer", "op_ticker": "NYSE: ET", "cp": "Oracle (OCI)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 900, "mw": 2300, "lon": -97.74, "lat": 30.27, "basin": "TX intrastate (Permian + Haynesville)", "location": "Texas (2 of 3 sites)", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-11-05", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Multiple long-term agreements", "term_years": null, "headline": "900 MMcf/d (~25 MMcm/d) firm to three Oracle AI data centers \u2014 2 in Texas \u2014 via ET's intrastate network; power delivered by VoltaGrid's 2.3 GW modular fleet.", "structure": "Multiple long-term agreements for ~900,000 Mcf/d of gas to three Oracle Cloud Infrastructure AI data centers. Power delivered via VoltaGrid 2.3 GW modular natural gas platform (INNIO Jenbacher engines + ABB controls). ET supplies gas, VoltaGrid burns it, Oracle offtakes the power.", "structure_detail": "Gas sourced from Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale. Delivered via ET's intrastate network. Hugh Brinson lateral (bi-directional, Waha to ET DFW network, 2.2 Bcf/d W-to-E capacity) under construction. VoltaGrid has previously deployed 1 GW for Vantage Data Centers and 35 MW at xAI Memphis.", "counterparty_note": "Oracle has disclosed massive AI infrastructure buildout \u2014 this is their largest single gas deal. OCI competes directly with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud for AI workloads.", "volume_basis": "Confirmed 900,000 Mcf/d via ET's Q3 2025 investor presentation + Argus reporting.", "economics_note": "Announced intrastate indexing (ERCOT-area pricing dynamics). ET co-CEO McCrea said on Nov 5 call that additional data center deals in Oklahoma and Texas are 'very close' to finalization.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Mackie McCrea, Co-CEO, Energy Transfer", "quote": "We couldn't be more upbeat about where we sit today with data centers throughout the country, but especially in Texas, because of our ability to perform and provide reliable gas service.", "context": "Q3 2025 earnings call, Nov 5, 2025" }, { "speaker": "Mahesh Thiagarajan, EVP OCI, Oracle", "quote": "AI workloads are uniquely power-intensive and highly variable, often creating swings in demand. By collaborating with VoltaGrid, we're engineering innovations that dampen these swings, making AI's power usage more stable, predictable, and grid-friendly.", "context": "Oracle / VoltaGrid announcement, Oct 15, 2025" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Energy Transfer (SEC 8-K filings series)", "title": "Energy Transfer LP 8-K filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001276187&type=8-K", "date": "2025-11-05", "source_class": "SEC", "proves": [ "binding_status", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=SEC" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Energy Transfer", "title": "Investor Presentation December 2025 (Oracle 900 MMcf/d confirmed pp. 24)", "url": "https://www.energytransfer.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ET-December-2025-Investor-Presentation_Final.pdf", "date": "2025-12-01", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "volume", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Argus Media", "title": "Energy Transfer to supply gas for Oracle AI", "url": "https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2750558-energy-transfer-to-supply-gas-for-oracle-ai", "date": "2025-11-10", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Pipeline & Gas Journal", "title": "Energy Transfer to Supply VoltaGrid Powering Oracle's 2.3-GW AI Data Centers", "url": "https://pgjonline.com/news/2025/october/energy-transfer-to-supply-voltagrid-powering-oracle-s-23-gw-ai-data-centers", "date": "2025-10-16", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "pipeline_route", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Magazine", "title": "Oracle Taps VoltaGrid for 2.3-GW Modular Gas Fleet to Power AI Data Centers Across Texas", "url": "https://www.powermag.com/oracle-taps-voltagrid-for-2-3-gw-modular-gas-fleet-to-power-ai-data-centers-across-texas/", "date": "2025-10-15", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "VoltaGrid to supply Oracle with 2.3GW of natural gas power for AI data centers", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/voltagrid-to-supply-oracle-with-23gw-of-natural-gas-power-for-ai-data-centers/", "date": "2026-03-11", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "Energy Transfer Launches Natural Gas Deliveries to Oracle Data Center", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/energy-transfer-launches-natural-gas-deliveries-to-oracle-data-center/", "date": "2026-02-20", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 2300, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "recip_engine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "in-construction", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.85, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Texas (2 of 3 sites)", "data_center_location": "Permian Basin, TX", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 7, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Microsoft", "scarcity_score": 4, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 5, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 22, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AAA", "moody": "Aaa", "tier": "highest_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Microsoft" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Prefers PPA + nuclear/renewable matching; gas tolerated for backup/peaking. Public Climate Pledge constrains gas-tied long-term commitments. Will accept fuel-cell or low-emissions gas if narrative survives ESG review.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "et-fermi", "name": "Fermi HyperGrid (Project Matador)", "op": "Energy Transfer", "op_ticker": "NYSE: ET", "cp": "Fermi America", "cp_type": "DC developer", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 291, "mmbtud": 300000, "mw": 2000, "lon": -101.83, "lat": 35.2, "basin": "Amarillo, TX", "location": "Texas Panhandle / Carson County", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-10-09", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "10-year exclusive firm supply", "term_years": 10, "headline": "10-year exclusive firm to Fermi's 5,236-acre HyperGrid behind-the-meter campus \u2014 11 GW design, 6 GW gas approved by TCEQ. Phase 1 interconnection Q1 2026.", "structure": "10-year exclusive firm gas supply agreement. Initial ~300,000 MMBtu/d to power first 2 GW of HyperGrid's planned 11 GW campus. Fermi interconnects to ET's pipeline south of campus; Phase 1 interconnection in service Q1 2026. Site is behind-the-meter private grid combining gas, nuclear, solar, wind generation.", "structure_detail": "5,236-acre campus partnered with Texas Tech University System. 18 million square feet of DC shell planned. Off-grid by design. TCEQ preliminary approval for 6 GW of gas. $550M Japan-pledged investment may flow through related East Texas NextEra/Comstock project (separate deal).", "counterparty_note": "Fermi America is led by Toby Neugebauer (GP of HBK Capital) and former US Energy Secretary Rick Perry. Water supply framework with City of Amarillo (2.5 MGD initial, optional 10 MGD) finalized Oct 2025.", "volume_basis": "ET-disclosed initial 300,000 MMBtu/d via exclusive agreement. Scales with campus buildout.", "economics_note": "East Daley calls HyperGrid one of the largest US DC campuses planned. 11 GW is ~1% of all US electricity generation.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Toby Neugebauer, Co-Founder & CEO, Fermi America", "quote": "What makes our Amarillo campus one of the top sites in the country for other clean sources of energy is that it was first an elite natural gas site. This agreement with Energy Transfer secures the firm natural gas supply necessary to generate our first two gigawatts of clean, reliable power for our AI data center customers.", "context": "Oct 9, 2025 press release" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Fermi America (via PRNewswire)", "title": "Fermi America Secures Firm Natural Gas Supply from Energy Transfer to Power Phase One of the HyperGrid Campus", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fermi-america-secures-firm-natural-gas-supply-from-energy-transfer-to-power-phase-one-of-the-hypergrid-campus-302579238.html", "date": "2025-10-09", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Fermi Inc. (SEC 8-K)", "title": "Fermi Inc. 8-K with HyperGrid / Project Matador update", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002071778/000121390025108289/ea026472101ex99-1_fermi.htm", "date": "2025-11-12", "source_class": "SEC", "proves": [ "binding_status", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=SEC" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Pipeline & Gas Journal", "title": "Energy Transfer to Deliver Firm Gas for Fermi's HyperGrid AI Project in Texas", "url": "https://pgjonline.com/news/2025/october/energy-transfer-to-deliver-firm-gas-for-fermi-s-hypergrid-ai-project-in-texas", "date": "2025-10-09", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "East Daley Analytics", "title": "Energy Transfer Taps Into Texas Data Center Boom", "url": "https://eastdaley.com/daley-note/energy-transfer-taps-into-texas-data-center-boom", "date": "2025-10-22", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Infrastructure Brief", "title": "Energy Transfer to Fuel Fermi HyperGrid with Firm Texas gas", "url": "https://infrastructurebrief.com/energy-transfer-to-fuel-fermi-hypergrid-with-firm-texas-gas/", "date": "2025-10-10", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "volume" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "American Public Power Association", "title": "Company Secures Natural Gas Supply Agreement for Texas Data Center Project", "url": "https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/company-secures-natural-gas-supply-agreement-texas-data-center-project", "date": "2025-11-02", "source_class": "NEWS", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty", "end_user" ] } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 2000, "basin_group": "Gulf_Coast", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "tenant_unconfirmed", "pending_litigation", "execution_risk_high", "construction_status_uncertain" ], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "in-service", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.4, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Gulf_Coast", "generation_location": "Texas Panhandle / Carson County", "data_center_location": "Amarillo, TX", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "fermi_capacity_buckets": { "signed_gas_supply_bcfd": 0, "secured_generation_gw": 2.0, "air_permitted_gw": 6.0, "air_permitted_expansion_gw": 5.0, "tenant_backed_demand_gw": 0, "announced_buildout_gw": 17.0 }, "execution_risk_note": "Fermi/Matador has 17 GW announced + ~6 GW air-permitted + 2 GW gas generation equipment secured, but construction status uncertain (Wash Post Apr 2026), no major tenant publicly named, ongoing litigation, and significant equity drawdown. Probability weight reduced to 0.40 pending tenant disclosure and binding gas supply.", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "scarcity_score": 4, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 19, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Gulf_Coast basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 5, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "et-entergy-meta", "name": "Entergy Richland / Meta $10B LA campus", "op": "Energy Transfer", "op_ticker": "NYSE: ET", "cp": "Entergy Louisiana (for Meta Platforms)", "cp_type": "Utility \u2192 Hyperscaler", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 250, "lon": -91.69, "lat": 32.4, "basin": "Richland Parish, LA (Haynesville-adjacent)", "location": "Richland Parish, LA", "state": "LA", "date": "2025-11-10", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "20-year firm supply", "term_years": 20, "headline": "20-year firm supply via 12-mile Tiger lateral to Entergy CCGT. Part of Entergy's 10-plant, 7.46 GW buildout for Meta's $27B Hyperion campus (expanded from 3 plants on March 27, 2026).", "structure": "20-year firm gas supply via a new 12-mile lateral off Energy Transfer's Tiger Pipeline. Gas delivered to Entergy Louisiana CCGT plants. Entergy generates power and sells to Meta under its Louisiana regulated framework.", "structure_detail": "20-year firm gas supply via a new 12-mile lateral off ET's Tiger Pipeline, delivered to Entergy Louisiana CCGT plants. Entergy generates power and sells to Meta under Louisiana regulated framework. March 27, 2026: Entergy and Meta announced 7 additional plants on top of the original 3, bringing total to 10 plants / ~7.46 GW. ET's ~250 MMcf/d supply contract is one piece of that broader utility-funded ecosystem; the incremental 7 plants are being supplied by multiple upstream sources, not all via this specific ET lateral.", "counterparty_note": "Entergy (NYSE: ETR) is up ~25% YTD 2026 largely on Meta momentum. Meta's ~$27B Louisiana investment is the largest single hyperscaler site commitment on record; it includes 10 gas plants (with 3 original + 7 announced March 2026), battery storage, transmission, plus a collaborative framework for future nuclear exploration.", "volume_basis": "Reporting of 20-year firm with 12-mile Tiger lateral. Volume estimated at 250 MMcf/d based on CCGT sizing.", "economics_note": "First ET direct utility-anchored DC deal. Haynesville gas to Louisiana DC load is the archetypal 'basin to server' corridor. Meta's $27B commitment is one of the largest hyperscaler site commitments ever disclosed.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Bloomberg", "title": "Meta Funds Seven Gas Plants to Power Biggest Data Center", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/meta-funds-seven-entergy-gas-plants-to-power-biggest-data-center", "date": "2026-03-27", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "BCG", "title": "Solving the US Data Center Power Crunch", "url": "https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/solving-the-us-data-center-power-crunch", "date": "2026-04-01", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Haynesville", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.85, "dedupe_group_id": "meta-louisiana-hyperion", "gas_origin_basin": "Haynesville", "generation_location": "Richland Parish, LA", "data_center_location": "Richland Parish, LA", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 7, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Meta", "mw_revised_2026": 5200, "structure_revised_note": "Meta-Entergy revised agreement (Mar 2026): seven gas-fired plants totaling >5.2 GW, plus transmission, storage, and nuclear upgrades. Entergy says Meta covers full cost of service; revised structure designed to deliver ~$2B in customer savings.", "ratepayer_protection": "meta_full_cost_coverage", "scarcity_score": 4, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 5, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 23, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "A+", "moody": "A1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Meta" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 79, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 111, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 160, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Haynesville basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Behind-the-meter + utility-wrapped (Entergy template). Insists on ratepayer-protection structures. Open to gas if customer covers full cost of service. Tightest community-impact scrutiny among hyperscalers.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "williams-socrates", "name": "Williams Socrates (for Meta / Sidecat)", "op": "Williams Companies", "op_ticker": "NYSE: WMB", "cp": "Meta Platforms (via Sidecat LLC)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 50, "mw": 400, "lon": -82.79, "lat": 39.99, "basin": "Ohio Utica (via Blue Racer/Cardinal)", "location": "New Albany, Licking County, OH", "state": "OH", "date": "2025-02-28", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "10-year fixed-price PPA; 5-year extension option", "term_years": 10, "headline": "$1.6B two-site BTM gas plant for Meta affiliate Sidecat \u2014 400 MW online Q3 2026; anchors Williams' new $7.3B Power Innovation business.", "structure": "Will-Power OH (Williams subsidiary) builds, owns, operates two 200 MW BTM gas plants (Socrates North, Socrates South). 10-year fixed-price PPA with Meta-affiliate Sidecat, 5-year extension option. Williams also builds two 24-inch dedicated gas pipelines + electrical substation.", "structure_detail": "Turbines: Solar Turbines Titan 250 + PGM 130; Siemens SGT400; Caterpillar 3520 reciprocating engines. Dedicated gas supply. East Daley estimates 5x build multiple = ~$320M annual transmission segment revenue. Socrates South approved by OPSB June 9, 2025.", "counterparty_note": "Sidecat LLC is a direct Meta affiliate. Meta owns 740-acre DC campus within New Albany International Business Park; this plant sits adjacent and feeds BTM.", "volume_basis": "400 MW \u00d7 ~125 MMcf/d/GW at 85% CF (EIA 2024 heat rate ~6.3 MMBtu/MWh) \u2248 50 MMcf/d. Previous v2.3 figure of 120 was an arithmetic error; corrected per audit Apr 26.", "economics_note": "First of Williams' four announced Power Innovation projects (now $7B+ total: Socrates, Apollo, Aquila, Socrates the Younger). 20%+ returns implied by 5x multiple.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Ohio Power Siting Board", "quote": "The Socrates station will operate 'behind-the-meter' to serve the electric load of an adjacent data center and will not be physically connected to the electric power grid.", "context": "OPSB release, June 9, 2025" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Williams Companies", "title": "Socrates Power Solution Facilities", "url": "https://www.williams.com/expansion-project/socrates-power-solution-facilities/", "date": "2025-02-28", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "mw", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Magazine", "title": "New 200-MW Gas-Fired Plant in Ohio Will Power Meta Data Center", "url": "https://www.powermag.com/new-200-mw-gas-fired-plant-in-ohio-will-power-meta-data-center/", "date": "2025-06-11", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "Ohio regulators approve construction of 200MW gas power plant to serve Meta's New Albany data center", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/ohio-regulators-approve-construction-of-200mw-gas-power-plant-to-serve-meta-data-center-in-new-albany-ohio/", "date": "2025-06-10", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Engineering", "title": "Onsite gas turbines, reciprocating engines to power Meta data center", "url": "https://www.power-eng.com/onsite-power/onsite-gas-turbines-reciprocating-engines-to-power-meta-data-center/", "date": "2025-06-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Hart Energy", "title": "Williams Leans into Power Supply Growth with Ohio Gas-Fired Project", "url": "https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/williams-leans-power-supply-growth-ohio-gas-fired-project-212843", "date": "2025-05-07", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "East Daley Analytics", "title": "WMB's Project Socrates Offers Enlightening Energy Solution", "url": "https://eastdaley.com/media-and-news/wmbs-project-socrates-offers-enlightening-energy-solution", "date": "2025-06-03", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 400, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "recip_engine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.7, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "New Albany, Licking County, OH", "data_center_location": "Ohio", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "signed-modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 7, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Meta", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 5, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 21, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "A+", "moody": "A1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Meta" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Williams" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Behind-the-meter + utility-wrapped (Entergy template). Insists on ratepayer-protection structures. Open to gas if customer covers full cost of service. Tightest community-impact scrutiny among hyperscalers.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "disclosed_in_negotiation", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_note": "Williams Power Innovation series; specific turbine OEM not yet publicly disclosed" }, { "id": "williams-apollo", "name": "Williams Apollo Power Generation", "op": "Williams Companies", "op_ticker": "NYSE: WMB", "cp": "Undisclosed (top-tier hyperscaler)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (unnamed)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 200, "mw": 700, "lon": -82.5, "lat": 39.97, "basin": "Ohio Utica", "location": "Ohio", "state": "OH", "date": "2025-11-12", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "12.5-year firm PPA (upsized from 10)", "term_years": 12.5, "headline": "Williams' second Ohio power project; upsized and extended to 12.5-year term at Feb 2026 analyst day.", "structure": "Behind-the-meter gas-fired generation project in Ohio. Backed by 12.5-year take-or-pay PPA with top-tier hyperscaler customer. Part of Williams' $7.3B Power Innovation buildout.", "structure_detail": "Combined with Aquila (Utah), total Apollo+Aquila investment is ~$3.1B. In-service H1 2027. Terms were extended at Feb 2026 analyst day from 10 years to 12.5 years \u2014 indicating customer demand for locked-in capacity.", "counterparty_note": "Customer not disclosed but Williams cites top-tier hyperscalers and utilities.", "volume_basis": "Estimated from project scope and Williams capex disclosures.", "economics_note": "5x build multiple = ~20% returns. Fully contracted with take-or-pay.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Williams Companies", "title": "Apollo Power Generation Project", "url": "https://www.williams.com/expansion-project/apollo-power-generation-project/", "date": "2026-01-28", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "volume", "mw", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Engineering", "title": "Williams pushes deeper into power generation as data center demand accelerates", "url": "https://www.power-eng.com/gas/williams-pushes-deeper-into-power-generation-as-data-center-demand-accelerates/", "date": "2025-11-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "ETF Trends", "title": "WMB Analyst Day: Power & Pipe to Drive Robust Growth", "url": "https://www.etftrends.com/energy-infrastructure-content-hub/wmb-analyst-day-power-pipe-drive-robust-growth/", "date": "2026-02-17", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 700, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "in-service", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.85, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Ohio", "data_center_location": "Ohio", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 7, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 5, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 18, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Williams" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "disclosed_in_negotiation", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_note": "Same as Socrates series" }, { "id": "williams-aquila", "name": "Williams Aquila Power Generation", "op": "Williams Companies", "op_ticker": "NYSE: WMB", "cp": "Undisclosed", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler/utility (unnamed)", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 200, "mw": 700, "lon": -111.88, "lat": 40.76, "basin": "Utah / Rockies", "location": "Utah", "state": "UT", "date": "2025-11-12", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "12.5-year firm PPA (upsized from 10)", "term_years": 12.5, "headline": "Williams' Utah Power Innovation project \u2014 first outside Ohio; upsized at Feb 2026 analyst day.", "structure": "BTM gas-fired generation in Utah. 12.5-year firm contract. Targets H1 2027 in-service.", "structure_detail": "Paired with Apollo (Ohio) in Williams' combined $3.1B second-wave announcement. Sources gas through Williams' Rockies pipeline network (Northwest Pipeline, Opal, etc.).", "counterparty_note": "Customer identity protected.", "volume_basis": "Estimated.", "economics_note": "Same 5x multiple economics as other Power Innovation projects.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Williams Companies", "title": "Williams Projects overview", "url": "https://www.williams.com/our-company/expansion-projects/", "date": "2026-02-19", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "volume", "mw", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Engineering", "title": "Williams pushes deeper into power generation as data center demand accelerates", "url": "https://www.power-eng.com/gas/williams-pushes-deeper-into-power-generation-as-data-center-demand-accelerates/", "date": "2025-11-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "ETF Trends", "title": "WMB Analyst Day: Power & Pipe to Drive Robust Growth", "url": "https://www.etftrends.com/energy-infrastructure-content-hub/wmb-analyst-day-power-pipe-drive-robust-growth/", "date": "2026-02-17", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 700, "basin_group": "Other", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "in-service", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.85, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Other", "generation_location": "Utah", "data_center_location": "Aquila, KS", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 7, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "scarcity_score": 4, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 5, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 20, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Williams" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "disclosed_in_negotiation", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_note": "Same as Socrates series" }, { "id": "williams-socrates-younger", "name": "Williams Socrates the Younger", "op": "Williams Companies", "op_ticker": "NYSE: WMB", "cp": "Undisclosed", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (unnamed)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 42, "mw": 340, "lon": -82.85, "lat": 40.02, "basin": "Ohio Utica", "location": "Ohio", "state": "OH", "date": "2026-02-17", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "10-year firm agreement", "term_years": 10, "headline": "340 MW Williams Power Innovation project announced at Feb 2026 analyst day; H2 2028 in-service.", "structure": "BTM Ohio gas plant + associated pipeline infrastructure + compression + 340 MW power generation. 10-year firm agreement. H2 2028 in-service.", "structure_detail": "Follow-on to original Socrates. Demonstrates Williams' 'one-stop shop' model: gas gathering + transport + compression + generation + offtake.", "counterparty_note": "Unnamed but likely adjacent to Ohio hyperscaler presence (AWS, Google, Microsoft, Intel campuses in same corridor).", "volume_basis": "340 MW \u00d7 ~125 MMcf/d/GW at 85% CF \u2248 42 MMcf/d. Previous v2.3 figure of 110 was an arithmetic error; corrected per audit Apr 26.", "economics_note": "Pushes Williams' announced Power Innovation capex from ~$5.1B to ~$7.3B.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Argus Media", "title": "Williams to supply gas, power to meet Ohio demand", "url": "https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2786994-williams-to-supply-gas-power-to-meet-ohio-demand", "date": "2026-02-21", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "ETF Trends", "title": "WMB Analyst Day: Power & Pipe to Drive Robust Growth", "url": "https://www.etftrends.com/energy-infrastructure-content-hub/wmb-analyst-day-power-pipe-drive-robust-growth/", "date": "2026-02-17", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Fortune", "title": "Data centers and gas demand make boring pipelines great again", "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/11/data-centers-gas-demand-make-boring-pipelines-great-again/", "date": "2026-04-11", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "pipeline_route", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "publisher": "Williams Companies (Power Innovation portfolio update)", "title": "Williams Power Innovation: Apollo, Aquila, Socrates, Socrates the Younger", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.williams.com/expansion-project/power-innovation/", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "mw", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 340, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "in-service", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.665, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Ohio", "data_center_location": "Ohio", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "signed-modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Microsoft", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 20, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AAA", "moody": "Aaa", "tier": "highest_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Microsoft" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Williams" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Prefers PPA + nuclear/renewable matching; gas tolerated for backup/peaking. Public Climate Pledge constrains gas-tied long-term commitments. Will accept fuel-cell or low-emissions gas if narrative survives ESG review.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45V", "name": "Hydrogen Production Tax Credit", "eligibility": "project-specific", "value": "$0.60-3.00/kg H2 (depending on lifecycle GHG intensity)", "note": "Hydrogen-related projects only.", "confidence": "inferred" } ] }, { "id": "williams-transco-sese", "name": "Williams Transco SESE (Southeast Supply Enhancement)", "op": "Williams Companies", "op_ticker": "NYSE: WMB", "cp": "Duke Energy + Southern Co (anchor shippers)", "cp_type": "Utility", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 1600, "lon": -77.54, "lat": 38.84, "basin": "Transco Zone 5 / Data Center Alley (VA/NC/GA/AL)", "location": "Mid-Atlantic to Southeast", "state": "VA/NC/GA", "date": "2025-05-05", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Fully contracted; 1.6 Bcf/d expansion", "term_years": 20, "headline": "Williams' largest-ever earnings contributor: 1.6 Bcf/d Transco expansion feeding Virginia DC Alley + Duke/Southern gas-fired loads; in-service Q4 2027.", "structure": "FERC-certificated Transco pipeline expansion adding 1.6 Bcf/d of firm capacity. Anchor shippers are Duke Energy and Southern Company (for regulated CCGT offtake), plus additional LDC and industrial shippers. 20-year firm transportation contracts standard.", "structure_detail": "Part of Williams CEO Chad Zamarin's 'biggest project ever from an earnings contribution perspective in the company's 118-year history' per April 2026 Fortune article.", "counterparty_note": "Duke + Southern capacity tied to EQT 1.2 Bcf/d supply deals. Downstream load is the VA/NC/GA/AL data center buildout.", "volume_basis": "1.6 Bcf/d confirmed in FERC filings.", "economics_note": "Enables EQT Duke/Southern deals and VA DC Alley \u2014 the key conduit for Appalachian gas reaching Southeast DC load.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Williams Companies", "title": "Williams Projects overview (Transco expansion)", "url": "https://www.williams.com/our-company/expansion-projects/", "date": "2026-02-19", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "volume", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Fortune", "title": "Data centers and gas demand make boring pipelines great again", "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/11/data-centers-gas-demand-make-boring-pipelines-great-again/", "date": "2026-04-11", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "pipeline_route", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Utility Dive", "title": "Southeast utilities are signing gas capacity contracts that will burden customers for decades", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/southeast-utilities-gas-capacity-contracts-pipeline-sace/758453/", "date": "2025-08-26", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Other", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "volume_class": "transport-capacity", "ai_demand_attribution": "adjacent", "probability_weight": 0.55, "dedupe_group_id": "southeast-eqt-duke-southern-transco", "gas_origin_basin": "Other", "generation_location": "Mid-Atlantic to Southeast", "data_center_location": "Mid-Atlantic to Southeast", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "volume_subtype": "transport", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 5, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 18, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Williams" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipe redirects to industrial load, LNG export feedgas, or utility generation. Strong fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "n_a_pipe_only", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "ferc_docket": { "docket": "CP-25-XX (Williams Transco SESE)", "status": "pre-filing/under construction", "note": "Williams Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement." }, "ferc_docket_confidence": "verified" }, { "id": "kmi-trident", "name": "Kinder Morgan Trident Intrastate Pipeline", "op": "Kinder Morgan", "op_ticker": "NYSE: KMI", "cp": "Golden Pass LNG (anchor) + DC load", "cp_type": "LNG + DC", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 2000, "lon": -94.04, "lat": 29.9, "basin": "Permian \u2192 Port Arthur", "location": "Katy, TX to Port Arthur, TX (216 miles)", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-01-22", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "FID'd; in-service Q1 2027", "term_years": null, "headline": "$1.7B / 216-mile / 1.5 Bcf/d (expanding to 2.0 Bcf/d) Texas intrastate; KMI CEO Kim Dang named AI/DC load as co-driver alongside LNG demand.", "structure": "216-mile 48/42-inch intrastate pipeline. 1.5 Bcf/d primary capacity, expanding to 2.0 Bcf/d per July 2025 announcement. Golden Pass LNG (70% QatarEnergy / 30% ExxonMobil) as anchor shipper. Producer LTCs backing remaining capacity. In-service Q1 2027 pending permits.", "structure_detail": "Takes gas from Katy hub (Permian downstream) to Port Arthur LNG/industrial corridor. Routes north of Houston ('scenic route') to bypass congested Houston area. RBN Energy called Trident 'game changer for Gulf Coast LNG terminals.'", "counterparty_note": "KMI framing of deal specifically called out data centers alongside LNG: 'significant new natural gas demand in these areas... these expectations are now materializing.' \u2014 Kim Dang, Q4 2024 earnings.", "volume_basis": "Kinder Morgan Trident Intrastate Project page (current capacity 2.0 Bcf/d)", "economics_note": "$1.7B capex. KMI's data center positioning also includes Copper State Pipeline (AZ) specifically for data center load.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Kim Dang, CEO, Kinder Morgan", "quote": "We are also today announcing the Trident Intrastate Pipeline Project, an approximately 216-mile pipeline build underpinned by long-term contracts that will provide approximately 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of capacity from Katy, Texas to the LNG and industrial corridor near Port Arthur, Texas.", "context": "Q4 2024 earnings release, Jan 22, 2025" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Kinder Morgan (SEC 8-K)", "title": "Kinder Morgan Q4 2024 earnings 8-K", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001506307/000150630725000002/kmi2024q48-kex991.htm", "date": "2025-01-22", "source_class": "SEC", "proves": [ "binding_status", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=SEC" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Pipeline Technology Journal", "title": "Kinder Morgan to Build $1.7B Texas Natural Gas Pipeline", "url": "https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/kinder-morgan-build-17b-texas-natural-gas-pipeline", "date": "2025-01-28", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "SPE / JPT", "title": "Kinder Morgan Gives $1.7 Billion Trident Pipeline the Go-Ahead", "url": "https://jpt.spe.org/kinder-morgan-gives-1-7-billion-trident-pipeline-the-go-ahead", "date": "2025-01-26", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Fortune", "title": "Kinder Morgan kicks off oil and gas earnings season with a bullish outlook, in part thanks to thirsty data centers", "url": "https://fortune.com/2025/07/17/gas-pipeline-construction-ramps-meet-lng-data-center-demand/", "date": "2025-07-17", "source_class": "EARNINGS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=EARNINGS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Rextag", "title": "From Katy to the Coast: Will Kinder Morgan's $1.7B Trident Pipeline Make Natural Gas More Reliable", "url": "https://rextag.com/blogs/blog/from-katy-to-the-coast-will-kinder-morgan-s-1-7b-trident-pipeline-make-natural-gas-more-reliable", "date": "2025-01-27", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "LNG_export", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "in-service", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "volume_class": "transport-capacity", "ai_demand_attribution": "adjacent", "probability_weight": 0.45, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "East Texas / Louisiana (LNG export corridor)", "data_center_location": "East Texas / Louisiana corridor (LNG export priority)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "mmbtud": 2064000, "volume_correction_note": "Updated from 1500 \u2192 2000 MMcf/d per kindermorgan.com/Operations/Projects/Trident-Intrastate-Project (schema v3.0) \u00b7 mmbtud unit error fixed (off by 1000\u00d7)", "volume_subtype": "transport", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 17, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Kinder Morgan" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipe redirects to industrial load, LNG export feedgas, or utility generation. Strong fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "n_a_pipe_only", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified" }, { "id": "nextera-comstock-tx-hub", "name": "NextEra \u00d7 Comstock East Texas Gas Generation Hub", "op": "Comstock Resources", "op_ticker": "NYSE: CRK", "cp": "NextEra Energy (builder/operator) \u2192 colocated DCs", "cp_type": "IPP \u2192 DC (TBD)", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 660, "mw": 5200, "lon": -94.2, "lat": 31.85, "basin": "Western Haynesville (East TX)", "location": "East Texas", "state": "TX", "date": "2026-03-15", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Announced as part of Japan $550B investment pledge \u00b7 April 2026: site selected (Anderson County, TX), $16B NextEra capex disclosed via US Dept of Commerce, jointly owned by US federal government + Japan via Trump-Takaichi trade agreement; Comstock-supplied gas with stated ramp toward ~1 Bcf/d by 2031. Site selection now definitive; gas supply contracts under negotiation.", "term_years": null, "headline": "$16B NextEra-Comstock 5.2 GW gas-fired hub in Anderson County, TX. Now jointly owned by US federal government + Japan via Trump-Takaichi trade agreement. Could reach ~1 Bcf/d of gas demand by 2031.", "structure": "NextEra Energy will build and operate the $16B Texas Natural Gas-Fired Power Generation Hub in Anderson County, TX, with capacity for up to 5.2 GW of natural gas-fired generation serving up to 5 GW of large-load demand (data centers + advanced manufacturing). Ownership structure: jointly owned by the US federal government and Japan (per Trump-Takaichi April 2026 trade agreement). Comstock Resources is the dedicated upstream gas supplier, with disclosed potential supply ramp 'reaching almost 1 Bcf/d by 2031.'", "structure_detail": "Anderson County, TX site. ~3,000 long-term jobs at full operation. Texas Power Generation Hub jointly owned Japan/US federal government \u2014 first-of-kind sovereign co-investment structure for US gas infrastructure. Comstock supply ramp implied at ~1,000 MMcf/d by 2031 (vs current 500 MMcf/d disclosed). Trade-deal joint ownership creates novel regulatory + capital structure.", "counterparty_note": "End-customer mix is data centers + advanced manufacturing (mixed); specific hyperscaler tenants not yet disclosed. Federal-Japanese government sovereign co-investment via trade-agreement framework adds geopolitical risk + regulatory complexity to project execution timeline.", "volume_basis": "Modeled from 5,200 MW disclosed capacity: 5,200 MW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 75% CF / 1,032 Btu/cf = ~660 MMcf/d at P50. Operator-disclosed forward target is ~1 Bcf/d by 2031 (Comstock guidance), implying full-utilization scaling above modeled P50.", "economics_note": "$16B total capex (US Department of Commerce + NextEra disclosure, April 2026). Joint Japan-US federal-government sovereign ownership via Trump-Takaichi trade agreement. ~3,000 long-term jobs. Property tax slashed; local tax revenue expected to be material multi-generationally. Gas supply could reach ~1 Bcf/d by 2031 per Comstock's stated ramp.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "US Department of Commerce statement", "quote": "The offtake from these projects will include supplying power to co-located data centers.", "context": "Announcement of US-Japan trade framework projects" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "The Center Square", "title": "New $16B natural gas generation hub being built in East Texas, data center to follow", "url": "https://www.thecentersquare.com/texas/article_efbce596-864e-408f-94cb-ff65c0aa501f.html", "date": "2026-03-15", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "financing", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2026-03-23", "publisher": "Comstock Resources, Inc. (press release)", "title": "Comstock Resources Announces Selection of Western Haynesville Site to Host Power Generation Hub", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://investors.comstockresources.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comstock-resources-inc-announces-selection-western-haynesville", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "date": "2026-03-23", "publisher": "GlobeNewswire (Comstock Resources)", "title": "Comstock Resources Announces Selection of Western Haynesville Site to Host Power Generation Hub", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/23/3260339/0/en/COMSTOCK-RESOURCES-INC-ANNOUNCES-SELECTION-OF-WESTERN-HAYNESVILLE-SITE-TO-HOST-POWER-GENERATION-HUB.html", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "volume", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Utility Dive", "title": "NextEra to develop 9.5 GW of gas in Texas, Pennsylvania", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nextera-gas-generation-doe-softbank-texas-pennsylvania/815541/", "date": "2026-04-22", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 5200, "basin_group": "Haynesville", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "merchant_IPP", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2031, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.063, "dedupe_group_id": "comstock-nextera-tx", "gas_origin_basin": "Haynesville", "generation_location": "East Texas", "data_center_location": "East Texas", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "financing", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "mmbtud": 681120, "mmcfd_p10": 544.2, "mmcfd_p50": 634.9, "mmcfd_p90": 707.4, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf). Note: Comstock-stated 2031 forward target is ~1 Bcf/d, but current modeled point estimate uses 5.2 GW disclosed capacity.", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2031", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 10, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BB-", "moody": "B1", "tier": "speculative", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Comstock" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 79, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 111, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 160, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Haynesville basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_speculative", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "range-midwest", "name": "Range Resources Midwest Power Plant SPA", "op": "Range Resources", "op_ticker": "NYSE: RRC", "cp": "Undisclosed Midwest power plant (DC-linked)", "cp_type": "Utility/IPP (unnamed)", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 75, "lon": -88.0, "lat": 40.0, "basin": "Marcellus \u2192 Midwest", "location": "Midwest US (TBD)", "state": null, "date": "2025-12-31", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "10-year firm supply", "term_years": 10, "headline": "Range's first DC-linked SPA: 75 MMcf/d \u00d7 10 years at a premium to Midwest regional pricing; facility online late 2027.", "structure": "10-year gas supply contract delivered to a newly-constructed Midwest power plant. Contingent on facility construction completion by late 2027. Range uses previously-announced transportation capacity beginning mid-2026 to serve.", "structure_detail": "Priced at premium to Midwest regional natural gas hub benchmarks \u2014 confirming willingness-to-pay from power sector buyers.", "counterparty_note": "Counterparty not disclosed. Range CEO has publicly stated the company sees 2.5 Bcf/d of incremental Marcellus demand from DCs by 2030.", "volume_basis": "Company-disclosed 75 MMcf/d in Q4 2025 earnings release.", "economics_note": "Premium pricing is the key structural feature \u2014 demonstrates pricing power for Marcellus producers with transport access to Midwest hubs.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Range Resources (SEC 8-K)", "title": "Range Announces Fourth Quarter 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315852/000119312526069413/rrc-ex99_1.htm", "date": "2026-02-24", "source_class": "SEC", "proves": [ "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=SEC" }, { "date": "2026-02-24", "publisher": "Range Resources Q4 2025 Earnings (StockTitan)", "title": "Range Q4 2025: 10-year supply agreement for 75 MMcf/day, contingent on facility construction late 2027", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/news/RRC/range-announces-fourth-quarter-2025-results-and-2026-qhoo6nvgzvy8.html", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty", "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2025-04-14", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "Marcellus Giant Range Resources Allies in Pennsylvania Power Gen Project to Attract Data Centers", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/marcellus-giant-range-resources-allies-in-pennsylvania-power-gen-project-to-attract-data-centers/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-10-30", "publisher": "Marcellus Drilling News", "title": "Range Convinced Extra 2.5 Bcf/d Needed for AI Data Centers by 2030", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://marcellusdrilling.com/2025/10/range-convinced-extra-2-5-bcf-d-needed-for-ai-data-ctrs-by-2030/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.807, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Midwest US (TBD)", "data_center_location": "Midwest US (TBD)", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 16, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB-", "moody": "Ba1", "tier": "crossover", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Range Resources" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Gas redirects to capacity market, peaker plant, or industrial. Possible margin compression but asset operates.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_speculative", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "range-liberty-robinson", "name": "Range / Liberty / ILC Robinson Twp Campus", "op": "Range Resources", "op_ticker": "NYSE: RRC", "cp": "TBD (DC tenant)", "cp_type": "DC developer", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 250, "lon": -80.25, "lat": 40.37, "basin": "Marcellus (SW PA)", "location": "Robinson Township, Washington County, PA", "state": "PA", "date": "2025-04-17", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Collaboration agreement", "term_years": null, "headline": "Three-way collaboration: Range (gas) + Liberty Energy (modular BTM generation) + Imperial Land Company (site) to develop a Marcellus DC campus.", "structure": "Collaboration framework \u2014 Range supplies gas, Liberty Energy provides modular BTM power generation, ILC provides the site/development. DC tenant TBD.", "structure_detail": "Estimated ~250 MMcf/d at full build; exact tenant and capex TBD.", "counterparty_note": "Liberty Energy is a large oilfield services company that has pivoted into distributed power under former Secretary Chris Wright. Imperial Land is Pittsburgh industrial developer.", "volume_basis": "Estimated based on project scope.", "economics_note": "Represents the 'upstream triangle' model: producer + oilfield service firm + land developer.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Liberty Energy", "title": "Liberty Energy Inc., Imperial Land Corporation, and Range Resources to Support Strategic Energy Development in Washington County, Pennsylvania", "url": "https://libertyenergy.com/liberty-imperial-land-corp-range-resources-energy-development-pennsylvania/", "date": "2025-04-08", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Hart Energy", "title": "Liberty, Imperial, Range Partner to Support Pennsylvania Power Plant", "url": "https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/liberty-imperial-range-partner-support-pennsylvania-power-plant-212544", "date": "2025-04-08", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "Marcellus Giant Range Resources Allies in Pennsylvania Power Gen Project to Attract Data Centers", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/marcellus-giant-range-resources-allies-in-pennsylvania-power-gen-project-to-attract-data-centers/", "date": "2025-04-14", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "inferred", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "mixed", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": null, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.128, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Robinson Township, Washington County, PA", "data_center_location": "Robinson Township, Washington County, PA", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 1, "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 10, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB-", "moody": "Ba1", "tier": "crossover", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Range Resources" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_speculative", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "partners": [ "Liberty Energy", "Imperial Land" ] }, { "id": "et-desert-southwest", "name": "Energy Transfer Desert Southwest Pipeline", "op": "Energy Transfer", "op_ticker": "NYSE: ET", "cp": "AZ/NM utilities", "cp_type": "Utility", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 2300, "lon": -111.05, "lat": 34.0, "basin": "Permian \u2192 AZ/NM", "location": "Permian to AZ/NM (516 miles)", "state": "AZ/NM", "date": "2025-08-15", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Open season oversubscribed; proceeding to construction", "term_years": 20, "headline": "ET's Transwestern Desert Southwest expansion to 2.3 Bcf/d via 48-inch pipe; APS anchor with $7.3B commitment.", "structure": "516-mile 42-inch greenfield pipeline from Permian Basin to markets in southern NM, AZ, and across the Southwest. 1.5 Bcf/d capacity. Supports AZ utility load (TEP, APS, SRP) and Arizona data center cluster (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon).", "structure_detail": "516-mile 48-inch pipeline expansion of Transwestern. Capacity 2.3 Bcf/d. APS commitment $7.3B/25yr. SRP additional capacity. ICE date Q4 2029. FID Aug 2025, upsized Dec 2025.", "counterparty_note": "Arizona is the #3 US data center market (after VA and TX), growing at ~25% annually.", "volume_basis": "Energy Transfer FID announced August 2025 at 1.5 Bcf/d via 42-inch pipe. Upsized December 2025 to 2.3 Bcf/d via 48-inch pipe per follow-up open season; Energy Transfer's December 18, 2025 press release confirms verbatim. APS is anchor customer with $7.3B commitment over 25 years for new gas-fired power plants serving data centers in APS service territory. SRP also signed for capacity. Targeted in-service Q4 2029. Upsizing increased project cost from $5.3B to ~$5.6B.", "economics_note": "$5.3B project capex. 20-year firm transportation contracts standard for pipelines of this size.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Energy Transfer", "title": "Investor Presentation December 2025 (DSW pipeline on pp. 24)", "url": "https://www.energytransfer.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ET-December-2025-Investor-Presentation_Final.pdf", "date": "2025-12-01", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2025-08-06", "publisher": "Energy Transfer (press release)", "title": "Energy Transfer Announces Natural Gas Pipeline Project to Serve Growing Southwestern U.S. Markets", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-announces-natural-gas-pipeline-project-serve/", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "date": "2025-12-18", "publisher": "Energy Transfer (press release)", "title": "Energy Transfer to Upsize Transwestern Pipeline's Desert Southwest Expansion Project (1.5 \u2192 2.3 Bcf/d)", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-upsize-transwestern-pipelines-desert-southwest", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "volume", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "date": "2025-08-07", "publisher": "Utility Dive", "title": "Arizona utilities sign up for gas pipeline project, spurred by data center development", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/arizona-utilities-aps-srp-transwestern-gas-pipeline-data-center/757040/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "pipeline_route", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-08-11", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "Arizona utilities acquire natural gas capacity from Energy Transfer pipeline to power data center growth", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/arizona-utilities-acquire-natural-gas-capacity-from-energy-transfer-pipeline-to-power-data-center-growth/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "pipeline_route", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "mmbtud": 2373600, "first_power_year": 2029, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "volume_class": "transport-capacity", "ai_demand_attribution": "adjacent", "probability_weight": 0.45, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "AZ / NM corridor", "data_center_location": "Permian to AZ/NM (516 miles)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "volume_subtype": "transport", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2029", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Microsoft", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 5, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 19, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AAA", "moody": "Aaa", "tier": "highest_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Microsoft" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipe redirects to industrial load, LNG export feedgas, or utility generation. Strong fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Prefers PPA + nuclear/renewable matching; gas tolerated for backup/peaking. Public Climate Pledge constrains gas-tied long-term commitments. Will accept fuel-cell or low-emissions gas if narrative survives ESG review.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "n_a_pipe_only", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified" }, { "id": "kmi-copper-state", "name": "Kinder Morgan Copper State Pipeline", "op": "Kinder Morgan", "op_ticker": "NYSE: KMI", "cp": "Arizona DC cluster", "cp_type": "Utility / DC (TBD)", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 500, "lon": -112.07, "lat": 33.45, "basin": "Permian \u2192 AZ", "location": "West Texas / New Mexico to Arizona", "state": "AZ", "date": "2025-09-01", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "Proposed; contracts being negotiated", "term_years": null, "headline": "~$3.5B proposed Permian-to-Arizona pipeline, explicitly for AZ data center cluster.", "structure": "Proposed greenfield pipeline to Arizona data center region. Competing/complementing with ET's Desert Southwest Pipeline.", "structure_detail": "Capacity details subject to open season outcome.", "counterparty_note": "Designed for hyperscaler DC cluster in greater Phoenix area.", "volume_basis": "Estimate pending open season close.", "economics_note": "Illustrates the bidding war for AZ DC pipeline capacity: two major midstream proposals targeting same load.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "Kinder Morgan Eyes Steady $9.3B Natural Gas Project Backlog", "url": "https://www.naturalgasintel.com/news/kinder-morgan-eyes-steady-93b-natural-gas-project-backlog/", "date": "2025-10-31", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-01-22", "publisher": "Kinder Morgan (Q4 2024 earnings)", "title": "Kinder Morgan Sanctions Trident Pipeline + Mississippi Crossing + South System Expansion 4", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/kinder-morgan-sanctions-trident-natural-gas-pipeline-expands-mississippi-crossing-project/", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "positioning_only", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "pre-FID", "permit_status": "not-required", "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "volume_class": "transport-capacity", "ai_demand_attribution": "adjacent", "probability_weight": 0.105, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Phoenix, AZ", "data_center_location": "Phoenix, AZ", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "transport", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 9, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Kinder Morgan" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipe redirects to industrial load, LNG export feedgas, or utility generation. Strong fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "n_a_pipe_only", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified" }, { "id": "diamondback-permian-jv", "name": "Diamondback Permian Power JV (exploratory)", "op": "Diamondback Energy", "op_ticker": "NASDAQ: FANG", "cp": "Undisclosed IPP", "cp_type": "IPP", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 0, "mw": null, "lon": -102.35, "lat": 32.02, "basin": "Permian (65k acres)", "location": "West Texas", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-02-25", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "In active discussions", "term_years": null, "headline": "Diamondback in talks for gas-fired power JV on its 65,000-acre Permian footprint, primarily for AI data centers.", "structure": "Exploratory positioning. Diamondback president Kaes Van't Hof said on Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 earnings calls the company is \"in talks\" with hyperscalers and IPPs to form a JV that would build behind-the-meter gas plants on Diamondback acreage, supply Diamondback gas, and sell power primarily to AI data centers. No counterparty named, no MW disclosed, no gas volume disclosed, no FID. Confidential discussions per company.", "structure_detail": "Concept: Diamondback contributes land + gas + produced water for cooling. IPP partner builds and operates plant. Hyperscaler offtakes power.", "counterparty_note": "Travis Stice (FANG CEO) publicly discussed the structure on the Q4 2024 call.", "volume_basis": "No volume disclosed by Diamondback or any other source. Previous tracker versions carried this row at 600 MMcf/d / 2,000 MW, which were not supported by any primary source. Corrected v2.5.0 to mmcfd=0 (positioning row) per primary-source verification audit. Bloomberg, NGI, DCD, and World Oil all describe this as exploratory talks; no deal exists.", "economics_note": "If finalized, would lock in a power + land + water + gas + equity stack \u2014 the fullest monetization of Permian acreage ever structured.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Diamondback Energy", "title": "Q3 2025 earnings call \u2014 JV positioning commentary", "url": "https://www.diamondbackenergy.com/investors", "date": "2025-11-04", "source_class": "EARNINGS", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=EARNINGS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "S&P Global Commodity Insights", "title": "Diamondback explores Permian power JV for data-center demand", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en", "date": "2025-10-15", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_derivation": "positioning_only", "mw_disclosed": null, "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "mmbtud": 0, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "merchant_IPP", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": null, "FID_status": "pre-FID", "permit_status": "not-required", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.083, "dedupe_group_id": "permian-vistra-diamondback-crusoe", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "West Texas", "data_center_location": "West Texas", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning_zero_volume", "excluded_reason": "Diamondback CEO publicly stated no deal exists; positioning-only intent. Zero MMcf/d. Reclassified to watchlist for v3.4.", "volume_basis_note": "Counted as a positioning row at zero volume \u2014 Diamondback CEO publicly stated no deal exists. Included for completeness; contributes 0 MMcf/d to gross.", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 5, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Diamondback" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "coterra-cpv", "name": "Coterra / CPV Basin Ranch", "op": "Coterra Energy", "op_ticker": "NYSE: CTRA", "cp": "Competitive Power Ventures (CPV)", "cp_type": "IPP", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 50, "mw": 1350, "lon": -103.15, "lat": 31.49, "basin": "Permian / Ward County", "location": "Ward County, TX", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-08-04", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Gas supply agreement; ERCOT West indexed", "term_years": null, "headline": "Coterra supplies gas to CPV's 1,350 MW CCGT with optional CCS; ERCOT West indexed \u2014 first 'power netback' structure for Coterra.", "structure": "Gas supply agreement for CPV Basin Ranch (1,350 MW CCGT with optional CCS). ERCOT West power pricing indexed into the structure, creating a 'power netback' for Coterra.", "structure_detail": "Plant will burn ~50 MMcf/d in support role; Coterra gets power-market upside exposure without owning the plant.", "counterparty_note": "CPV is major US IPP with ~18 GW under development. Coterra being acquired by Devon Feb 2026 \u2014 deal transfers to Devon.", "volume_basis": "Coterra signed gas-supply agreement: 50 MMcf/d for 7 years starting 2028. Full-plant modeled burn (~168 MMcf/d) preserved separately as plant_demand_modeled.", "economics_note": "First mover on power-netback structure for Permian producer. Replicable template.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Coterra Energy", "title": "CPV supply agreement announcement / Q2 2025 earnings", "url": "https://www.coterra.com/investors/", "date": "2025-08-05", "source_class": "EARNINGS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=EARNINGS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "S&P Global Commodity Insights", "title": "Coterra-CPV Permian gas-to-power offtake", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en", "date": "2025-08-10", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 1350, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "merchant_IPP", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 173376, "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 141.3, "mmcfd_p50": 164.8, "mmcfd_p90": 183.7, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.475, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Ward County, TX", "data_center_location": "Ward County, TX", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "mmcfd_full_plant_modeled": 168, "volume_basis_note": "Tracker now counts only the signed Coterra supply, not the full CPV Basin Ranch plant burn. Strict signed-molecule treatment.", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 13, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Coterra" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45Q", "name": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", "eligibility": "likely", "value": "$60-85/tonne CO2 sequestered (post-2026 IRA enhancement)", "note": "Project must capture and securely store/use CO2 from gas combustion. Eligibility depends on project specifics; consult counsel.", "confidence": "inferred" } ] }, { "id": "newera-sharonai", "name": "New Era Helium \u00d7 Sharon AI (TCDC)", "op": "New Era Helium", "op_ticker": "NASDAQ: NEHC", "cp": "Sharon AI", "cp_type": "DC developer", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 80, "mw": 250, "lon": -102.37, "lat": 31.85, "basin": "Permian / Ector County", "location": "Ector County, TX", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-01-21", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "50/50 JV structure", "term_years": null, "headline": "50/50 JV: 250 MW net-zero (via CCS + 45Q credits) DC campus in Permian; most creative small-cap structure in the market.", "structure": "50/50 JV ('Texas Critical Data Center' / TCDC). NEHC contributes Permian gas + CO2 from helium operations (which is already CCS-eligible). Sharon AI contributes data center expertise.", "structure_detail": "Net-zero design via CCS capture and 45Q tax credits. 250 MW net-zero gas + DC campus. Uses existing NEHC CO2 infrastructure.", "counterparty_note": "Sharon AI is private DC developer. NEHC stock surged on announcement.", "volume_basis": "~80 MMcf/d at 250 MW baseload.", "economics_note": "Template for small-cap E&Ps: combine helium/CCS tax credits with gas-to-DC deal to create premium-priced captive outlet.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "New Era Helium", "title": "Sharon AI JV announcement", "url": "https://newerahelium.com/news/", "date": "2025-07-20", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "volume", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "New Era Helium-Sharon AI data-center JV", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com", "date": "2025-07-25", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 250, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "CCS_enabled", "ultimate_power_buyer": "mixed", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.2, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Ector County, TX", "data_center_location": "Permian Basin, TX", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "signed-disclosed", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 15, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "unclassified", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Gas redirects to capacity market, peaker plant, or industrial. Possible margin compression but asset operates.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45Q", "name": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", "eligibility": "likely", "value": "$60-85/tonne CO2 sequestered (post-2026 IRA enhancement)", "note": "Project must capture and securely store/use CO2 from gas combustion. Eligibility depends on project specifics; consult counsel.", "confidence": "inferred" } ] }, { "id": "oxy-horizon", "name": "Occidental Project Horizon", "op": "Occidental Petroleum", "op_ticker": "NYSE: OXY", "cp": "TBD partnership", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (TBD)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 249, "mw": 2000, "lon": -102.42, "lat": 31.85, "basin": "Permian / West Texas", "location": "West Texas", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-06-01", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Announced; partner discussions ongoing", "term_years": null, "headline": "2 GW AI campus with integrated CCS + DAC, leveraging OXY's CO2 pipeline network \u2014 the world's largest.", "structure": "2 GW behind-the-meter AI campus with gas-fired generation, CCS capture, and integrated Direct Air Capture (DAC). Leverages OXY's unique US Gulf Coast / Permian CO2 pipeline network (~2,000 miles, largest in world).", "structure_detail": "Combines Permian gas production, OXY 1PointFive DAC platform, and existing CO2 infrastructure. Targeted at hyperscaler seeking net-negative emissions profile.", "counterparty_note": "OXY is one of three IOC-scale players (with Exxon and Chevron) pursuing direct DC power deals at scale.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 2000 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 249 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). 2 GW at 50% utilization = ~160 MMcf/d.", "economics_note": "DAC + CCS creates potentially net-negative profile \u2014 premium pricing possible.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Reuters", "title": "Occidental Petroleum explores data-center partnership opportunities", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/", "date": "2025-08-15", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Occidental Petroleum", "title": "Q2 2025 earnings call commentary", "url": "https://www.oxy.com/investors/", "date": "2025-08-07", "source_class": "EARNINGS", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=EARNINGS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 2000, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 256968, "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 209.3, "mmcfd_p50": 244.2, "mmcfd_p90": 272.1, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.475, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "West Texas", "data_center_location": "Permian Basin, TX", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 13, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "unclassified", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45Q", "name": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", "eligibility": "likely", "value": "$60-85/tonne CO2 sequestered (post-2026 IRA enhancement)", "note": "Project must capture and securely store/use CO2 from gas combustion. Eligibility depends on project specifics; consult counsel.", "confidence": "inferred" } ] }, { "id": "aethon-mitsubishi", "name": "Aethon \u00d7 Mitsubishi Digital Infra Alliance", "op": "Aethon Energy", "op_ticker": "Private", "cp": "Mitsubishi Corporation", "cp_type": "Trading house \u2192 DC infra", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 500, "lon": -93.75, "lat": 32.52, "basin": "Haynesville (TX/LA)", "location": "Haynesville, TX/LA", "state": "TX/LA", "date": "2026-01-16", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "Non-binding framework alliance", "term_years": null, "headline": "Non-binding framework alliance for DC + digital infra; Mitsubishi's $7.5B acquisition of Aethon (Jan 2026) positions the JV for gas-to-DC deals.", "structure": "Non-binding alliance framework covering joint development of DC + digital infrastructure projects using Aethon's Haynesville gas. Follows Mitsubishi's $7.5B acquisition of Aethon.", "structure_detail": "Aethon produces ~2.1 Bcf/d Haynesville, now owned by Mitsubishi. Mitsubishi has global DC experience and power trading capability.", "counterparty_note": "Aethon was largest privately-held US Haynesville producer. Mitsubishi gains direct US gas production + DC offtake capability.", "volume_basis": "Estimated initial allocation.", "economics_note": "First Japanese trading house direct Haynesville acquisition. Creates a direct gas-to-server ownership chain.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "CNBC (reporting on Mitsubishi filing)", "title": "Japan's Mitsubishi to acquire shale gas assets in U.S. for $7.5 billion", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/16/mitsubishi-shale-gas-assets-texas-louisiana-deal.html", "date": "2026-01-16", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "financing", "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "Mitsubishi Enters U.S. Shale Natural Gas Business in $7.5B Haynesville Acquisition", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/mitsubishi-enters-us-shale-natural-gas-business-in-75b-haynesville-acquisition/", "date": "2026-01-16", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "financing", "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "positioning_only", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Haynesville", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "mixed", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2028, "FID_status": "pre-FID", "permit_status": "not-required", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.083, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Haynesville", "generation_location": "Haynesville, TX/LA", "data_center_location": "Haynesville, LA", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 6, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "pre_fid_structured_equity", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Aethon Energy", "match_quality": "token", "name": "Aethon Energy" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 79, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 111, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 160, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Haynesville basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "comstock-jones", "name": "Comstock Western Haynesville (Jones positioning)", "op": "Comstock Resources", "op_ticker": "NYSE: CRK", "cp": "TBD", "cp_type": "Undisclosed", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 500, "lon": -96.15, "lat": 31.37, "basin": "Western Haynesville (TX)", "location": "Western Haynesville, East TX", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-10-30", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "Infrastructure + acreage development", "term_years": null, "headline": "$1B+ Jerry Jones-backed Western Haynesville development explicitly positioned for DC + LNG demand.", "structure": "Infrastructure + acreage development in Western Haynesville play. Comstock is Jerry Jones's primary gas play. Targeted at DC + LNG demand (overlaps with the NextEra East Texas hub deal).", "structure_detail": "Comstock is separately party to the NextEra East TX Gas Generation Hub deal (~1 Bcf/d to 5.2 GW NextEra hub by 2031).", "counterparty_note": "Jones owns ~70% of Comstock.", "volume_basis": "Broad positioning; specific DC contracts forthcoming.", "economics_note": "Western Haynesville wells exhibit some of the highest IPs in North America; capital intensive but high-deliverability per well.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Comstock Resources", "title": "Jones County Western Haynesville results \u2014 positioning commentary", "url": "https://www.comstockresources.com/investor-relations/", "date": "2025-09-01", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "Comstock Western Haynesville positioning for DC offtake", "url": "https://www.naturalgasintel.com", "date": "2025-10-15", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "positioning_only", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Haynesville", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline_to_LNG", "ultimate_power_buyer": "mixed", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "pre-FID", "permit_status": "not-required", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.093, "dedupe_group_id": "comstock-nextera-tx", "gas_origin_basin": "Haynesville", "generation_location": "Western Haynesville, East TX", "data_center_location": "Haynesville, LA", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 6, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BB-", "moody": "B1", "tier": "speculative", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Comstock" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 79, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 111, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 160, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Haynesville basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_speculative", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "antero-dry-gas-poc", "name": "Antero Dry-Gas POC (DC-ready rig)", "op": "Antero Resources", "op_ticker": "NYSE: AR", "cp": "TBD (positioning)", "cp_type": "Undisclosed", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 150, "lon": -80.43, "lat": 39.63, "basin": "WV Marcellus", "location": "West Virginia", "state": "WV", "date": "2025-11-07", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "Rig add; first pad Q1 2026", "term_years": null, "headline": "Antero adds a dry-gas rig in WV Marcellus specifically to position for DC-driven demand; first pad TIL Q1 2026.", "structure": "Operational positioning, not contracted supply. Antero adding rig capacity in dry-gas window of Marcellus to have deliverability ready when DC contracts crystallize.", "structure_detail": "First pad turn-in-line expected Q1 2026.", "counterparty_note": "No named counterparty; pure supply-side positioning.", "volume_basis": "Estimated ramp rate of single pad.", "economics_note": "Signals producer confidence that demand contracts will close.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Antero Resources", "title": "Q3 2025 earnings \u2014 dry gas DC commentary", "url": "https://www.anteroresources.com/investors/", "date": "2025-11-05", "source_class": "EARNINGS", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=EARNINGS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "Antero positions Appalachian dry gas for DC offtake", "url": "https://www.naturalgasintel.com", "date": "2025-11-10", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "positioning_only", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "pre-FID", "permit_status": "not-required", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.15, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "West Virginia", "data_center_location": "Appalachia (Marcellus/Utica)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 6, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BB+", "moody": "Ba2", "tier": "speculative", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Antero" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_speculative", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "ppl-blackstone", "name": "PPL\u2013Blackstone CCGT JV", "op": "PPL Corporation", "op_ticker": "NYSE: PPL", "cp": "TBD PJM load customers", "cp_type": "Utility/ISO", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 747, "mw": 6000, "lon": -75.49, "lat": 40.6, "basin": "Pennsylvania", "location": "PPL service territory, PA", "state": "PA", "date": "2025-07-15", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "JV formed; first plants under development", "term_years": null, "headline": "Utility + PE JV to fill PPL's 6 GW generation shortfall driven by 60+ GW of data center interest in its PA/KY territory.", "structure": "Joint venture between PPL and Blackstone Infrastructure to develop new CCGT capacity in PPL service territory. Backed by PPL's long-duration ESA contracts with data center customers.", "structure_detail": "PPL has disclosed 60+ GW of DC interest in its territory (PA + KY), of which 13 GW is 'advanced.' JV designed to fill the ~6 GW generation shortfall.", "counterparty_note": "Blackstone contributes equity + execution. PPL contributes service territory + regulated framework.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 6000 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 747 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). Estimated 6 GW CCGT at ~50% utilization.", "economics_note": "Template for utility/PE partnerships to finance DC-driven gen buildout without stressing utility balance sheet.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "PPL Corporation (investor relations)", "title": "PPL Corporation and Blackstone Infrastructure create joint venture to build natural gas generation in Pennsylvania in support of data center development", "url": "https://investors.pplweb.com/2025-07-15-PPL-Corporation-and-Blackstone-Infrastructure-create-joint-venture-to-build-natural-gas-generation-in-Pennsylvania-in-support-of-data-center-development", "date": "2025-07-15", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "SEC (PPL 8-K)", "title": "PPL Corporation Form 8-K", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000922224/000092222426000006/ppl-12312025exhibit991.htm", "date": "2026-02-14", "source_class": "SEC", "proves": [ "binding_status", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=SEC" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Magazine", "title": "PPL, Blackstone Launch Major Gas-Fired Generation Venture Targeting Data Center Surge in Pennsylvania", "url": "https://www.powermag.com/ppl-blackstone-launch-major-gas-fired-generation-venture-targeting-data-center-surge-in-pennsylvania/", "date": "2025-07-17", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Utility Dive", "title": "Blackstone to pay $1B for 620-MW Pennsylvania natural gas plant", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/blackstone-billion-pennsylvania-natural-gas-plant-data-centers-ai/760243/", "date": "2025-09-16", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 6000, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2030, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 770904, "operator_role": "utility-anchored", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.3, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "PPL service territory, PA", "data_center_location": "PPL service territory, PA", "cost_recovery": "general-ratepayer", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 1, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2030", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 11, "capital_need_category": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "A-", "moody": "A3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "PPL" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Utility recovers via rate base. Customer / public-stakeholder split shifts but asset retains value.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "google-nisource", "name": "Alphabet / NIPSCO Indiana Large-Load Supply Agreement", "op": "NiSource (NIPSCO Generation)", "op_ticker": "NYSE: NI", "cp": "Alphabet (Google DC)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 42, "mw": 340, "lon": -87.2, "lat": 41.47, "basin": "Northern Indiana", "location": "Northern Indiana", "state": "IN", "date": "2026-04-15", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Long-term supply agreement", "term_years": null, "headline": "NIPSCO Generation pool (340 MW of gas-anchored capacity) supplying Alphabet DC in Northern Indiana; supply begins summer 2026.", "structure": "NIPSCO Generation (NiSource subsidiary) supplies power via pooled portfolio of generation assets. Gas-fired assets anchor the pool.", "structure_detail": "GenCo model specifically targets DC market. Starts summer 2026. Also expands existing Amazon deal.", "counterparty_note": "NiSource is a major Indiana/PA/KY/VA/MD gas and electric utility.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 340 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 42 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). 340 MW gas-dominated pool.", "economics_note": "Pooled model protects ratepayers from DC cost burden. Replicable utility structure.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Lloyd Yates, CEO, NiSource", "quote": "Our strategy is centered on protecting our customers from cost increases associated with these projects while supporting responsible growth in Indiana.", "context": "April 2026 announcement" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "Alphabet signs energy supply agreement with Indiana utility NiSource to power large scale data center in Northern Indiana", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/alphabet-signs-energy-supply-agreement-with-indiana-utility-nisource-to-power-large-scale-data-center-in-indiana/", "date": "2026-04-15", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-11-25", "publisher": "NIPSCO (parent company NiSource)", "title": "NIPSCO data center supply context \u2014 same GenCo framework as AWS deal", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.nipsco.com/our-company/news-room/news-article/powering-indiana-s-future--how-nipsco--genco--and-amazon-keep-energy-reliable-and-affordable", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 340, "basin_group": "Midwest", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 43344, "operator_role": "utility-anchored", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 35.6, "mmcfd_p50": 41.5, "mmcfd_p90": 46.3, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.475, "dedupe_group_id": "aws-indiana-nipsco-google", "gas_origin_basin": "Midwest", "generation_location": "Northern Indiana", "data_center_location": "Northern Indiana", "cost_recovery": "rate-base-with-hyperscaler", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Google / Alphabet", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 15, "capital_need_category": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AA+", "moody": "Aa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Google / Alphabet" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "note": "Issuer = NiSource", "name_resolved": "NIPSCO" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 113, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 162, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Midwest basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Utility recovers via rate base. Customer / public-stakeholder split shifts but asset retains value.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "24/7 carbon-free matching pledge. Gas usage requires offsets or RNG. Geothermal/nuclear preferred; gas is bridge-only. Tightest contract termination rights.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "tallgrass-crusoe-jade", "name": "Project Jade / BFC Power Hub", "op": "Tallgrass Energy", "op_ticker": "TGE", "cp": "Crusoe (tenant: undisclosed hyperscaler)", "cp_type": "DC developer", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 336, "mw": 2700, "lon": -104.82, "lat": 41.13, "basin": "Rockies (Wyoming)", "location": "Laramie County, WY (Switchgrass Industrial Park)", "state": "WY", "date": "2025-07-24", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "JV announced Jul 2025; county approval Jan 6, 2026; construction Q1 2026", "term_years": null, "headline": "2.7 GW behind-the-meter gas + fuel cells powering Crusoe AI campus; scaling to 10 GW; $7B Tallgrass infrastructure investment.", "structure": "Tallgrass-developed BFC Power and Cheyenne Power Hub sits adjacent to Crusoe's Project Jade data center campus. Two combined-cycle turbines plus aeroderivative simple-cycle turbines plus a Bloom Energy fuel-cell yard. Power is behind-the-meter for the AI campus; co-located with Tallgrass's existing CO2 sequestration hub.", "structure_detail": "Phase 1: 2.7 GW (grew from initial 1.8 GW announcement). Scales to 10 GW ceiling. 'Bring-your-own-power' model \u2014 self-sufficient for the industrial facility; does not strain municipal utilities. Construction started late Q1 2026; first building operation targeted Q4 2027.", "counterparty_note": "Crusoe is the industry's first vertically-integrated AI infrastructure provider; Tallgrass is a Blackstone-backed midstream operator with thousands of miles of Rockies gas pipe. Hyperscaler tenant for Jade not yet disclosed; matches profile of OpenAI/Oracle-style mega-tenant.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 2700 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 336 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). 2.7 GW \u00d7 ~80 MMcf/d per GW of CCGT at 50% utilization = ~216 MMcf/d. Bloom fuel cells proportion reduces gas share somewhat but kept conservative.", "economics_note": "$7B Tallgrass capex for the power hub alone. Total campus capex $50B+ per county filings. Could become the largest single AI campus in the US by 2031 if 10 GW buildout happens.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Chase Lochmiller, Co-Founder & CEO, Crusoe", "quote": "Building an American AI factory that can scale to 10 gigawatts of capacity illustrates Crusoe's commitment to delivering infrastructure at the scale needed for the U.S. to win the global AI race.", "context": "Crusoe/Tallgrass JV announcement, July 2025" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Tallgrass Energy", "title": "Crusoe and Tallgrass Announce AI Data Center in Wyoming", "url": "https://tallgrass.com/newsroom/press-releases/Crusoe", "date": "2025-07-24", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Crusoe", "title": "Crusoe and Tallgrass Announce AI Data Center in Wyoming", "url": "https://www.crusoe.ai/resources/newsroom/crusoe-and-tallgrass-announce-ai-data-center-in-wyoming", "date": "2025-07-24", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Magazine", "title": "Wyoming Approves Data Center Campus That Includes 2.7 GW of New Natural Gas-Fired Generation", "url": "https://www.powermag.com/wyoming-approves-data-center-campus-that-includes-2-7-gw-of-new-natural-gas-fired-generation/", "date": "2026-01-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Cowboy State Daily", "title": "Huge Cheyenne Data Center Grows To 2.7 Gigawatts", "url": "https://cowboystatedaily.com/2026/01/08/huge-cheyenne-data-center-grows-to-2-7-gigawatts-nearly-triple-state-power-use/", "date": "2026-01-08", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "New Project Media", "title": "Crusoe, Tallgrass receive Laramie County, WY approvals for USD 50bn, 2.7 GW data center and power plant project", "url": "https://newprojectmedia.com/origination-crusoe-tallgrass-receive-laramie-county-wy-approvals-for-usd-50bn-2-7-gw-data-center-and-power-plant-project/", "date": "2026-01-20", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 2700, "basin_group": "Other", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 346752, "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 282.6, "mmcfd_p50": 329.7, "mmcfd_p90": 367.3, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.475, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Other", "generation_location": "Cheyenne County, NE", "data_center_location": "Cheyenne, Wyoming (Crusoe campus)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "data_center_state": "WY", "location_correction_note": "Corrected from Cheyenne County, NE to Cheyenne, WY (geocoding error between Cheyenne, Wyoming and Cheyenne County, Nebraska).", "power_to_compute_maturity": 4, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Oracle", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 3, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 18, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Oracle" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer", "match_quality": "token" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Pivoted to fuel-cell for Stargate (Apr 2026). Speed > narrative. Less ESG-constrained. Will sign with non-grid, modular, fast-deploy generators.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "state_regulatory_regime": { "permit_speed": 5, "ai_political": 5, "queue_health": 4, "community_floor": 2, "composite": 4.0, "note": "WDEQ permits in ~6 mo. Project Jade siting template. Low queue congestion in WAPA/WECC.", "authority": "WDEQ + PSC-WY + WECC" }, "state_regulatory_state": { "permit_speed": 5, "ai_political": 5, "queue_health": 4, "community_floor": 2, "composite": 4.0, "note": "WDEQ permits in ~6 mo. Project Jade siting template. Low queue congestion in WAPA/WECC.", "authority": "WDEQ + PSC-WY + WECC" }, "state_regulatory_state_code": "WY", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45Q", "name": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", "eligibility": "likely", "value": "$60-85/tonne CO2 sequestered (post-2026 IRA enhancement)", "note": "Project must capture and securely store/use CO2 from gas combustion. Eligibility depends on project specifics; consult counsel.", "confidence": "inferred" } ] }, { "id": "nscale-microsoft-monarch", "name": "Monarch Compute Campus", "op": "Nscale (via American Intelligence & Power acquisition)", "op_ticker": "Private", "cp": "Microsoft", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 192, "mw": 1350, "lon": -82.03, "lat": 38.85, "basin": "Appalachia (WV Marcellus)", "location": "Mason County, WV", "state": "WV", "date": "2026-03-17", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Microsoft LOI for 1.35 GW Phase 1; scales to 8 GW total", "term_years": null, "headline": "1.35 GW behind-the-meter Appalachian gas, scaling to 8 GW; bypasses PJM via WV off-grid statute; Caterpillar G3500 engines ordered.", "structure": "Microsoft signed a letter of intent with Nscale for ~1.35 GW of Phase 1 compute. Nscale acquired American Intelligence & Power Corporation (which had been permitting the WV microgrid site). Caterpillar G3500 reciprocating gas gensets are the generation technology. Site is engineered for four natural-gas pipelines to feed the campus \u2014 positioning it as a potential Appalachian gas hub.", "structure_detail": "Phase 1 targets 2 GW online by 1H 2028; full 8 GW by 2031. Entirely off-grid, enabled by WV 2024 microgrid legislation that allows off-grid gas-fired power plants (rescinded prior renewables-only rule). Sidesteps PJM's 6+ year interconnection queue.", "counterparty_note": "Nscale is an NVIDIA-backed neocloud that had raised ~$4B as of March 2026. Its board added former Meta and Yahoo executives in March. Microsoft is deploying Vera Rubin NVL72 GPUs at the site. This is Nscale's first US fossil-gas project \u2014 prior portfolio was renewables (Iceland geothermal, Norway hydro, etc.).", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 7.2 MMBtu/MWh (recip heat rate). 1350 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 7.2 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 192 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). 1.35 GW Phase 1 at Caterpillar G3500 official efficiency (44.6-44.7%) and 90% capacity factor (AI-training typical) = ~81 TBtu/yr \u2248 ~240 MMcf/d. Per Stand.earth analysis citing official Caterpillar spec sheets.", "economics_note": "Full 8 GW buildout would emit ~25.55 MT CO2e/yr per Stand.earth. Microsoft co-tenants TBD. One of the largest behind-the-meter Appalachian gas commitments on record.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Stuart Pann, Senior Advisor, Nscale", "quote": "The facility can have four separate pipelines fed into it, with potential to become a gas hub similar to Henry Hub.", "context": "Nscale\u2013Microsoft Monarch announcement commentary, March 2026" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Power Engineering", "title": "Caterpillar engines to support 2 GW of onsite power at West Virginia data center campus tied to Microsoft, NVIDIA", "url": "https://www.power-eng.com/onsite-power/caterpillar-engines-to-support-2-gw-of-onsite-power-at-west-virginia-data-center-campus-tied-to-microsoft-nvidia/", "date": "2026-03-17", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Latitude Media", "title": "Microsoft is embracing off-grid gas for West Virginia data centers", "url": "https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/microsoft-is-embracing-off-grid-gas-for-west-virginia-data-centers/", "date": "2026-03-17", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 1350, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "recip_engine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "agreement_in_principle", "evidence_class": "D", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 198144, "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.2, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Mason County, WV", "data_center_location": "West Virginia (Hope Gas / Monarch site)", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "data_center_state": "WV", "location_correction_note": "Corrected data_center_location from Texas to West Virginia per Hope Gas / Nscale announcement.", "binding_correction_note": "Downgraded from definitive to AIP \u2014 public Microsoft involvement is LOI-level, not a fully-executed gas contract.", "power_to_compute_maturity": 1, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Microsoft", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 3, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 11, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AAA", "moody": "Aaa", "tier": "highest_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Microsoft" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "NR", "moody": "NR", "tier": "private_unrated", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Nscale" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 131, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 183, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 249, "lcoe_basis_note": "recip engine: HR 8.5\u201310.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 110\u2013185 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Prefers PPA + nuclear/renewable matching; gas tolerated for backup/peaking. Public Climate Pledge constrains gas-tied long-term commitments. Will accept fuel-cell or low-emissions gas if narrative survives ESG review.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "state_regulatory_regime": { "permit_speed": 5, "ai_political": 5, "queue_health": 4, "community_floor": 2, "composite": 4.0, "note": "DEP-WV is among the fastest in Appalachia (~6-9 mo air permits). Governor + delegation aggressive on AI siting. Hope Gas / Nscale partnership templated. Community floor low outside Charleston metro.", "authority": "DEP-WV + PSC-WV" }, "state_regulatory_state": { "permit_speed": 5, "ai_political": 5, "queue_health": 4, "community_floor": 2, "composite": 4.0, "note": "DEP-WV is among the fastest in Appalachia (~6-9 mo air permits). Governor + delegation aggressive on AI siting. Hope Gas / Nscale partnership templated. Community floor low outside Charleston metro.", "authority": "DEP-WV + PSC-WV" }, "state_regulatory_state_code": "WV" }, { "id": "crusoe-microsoft-abilene2", "name": "Crusoe Abilene Phase 2 (Microsoft)", "op": "Crusoe Energy Systems", "op_ticker": "Private", "cp": "Microsoft", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 112, "mw": 900, "lon": -99.73, "lat": 32.45, "basin": "Permian (Abilene corridor)", "location": "Abilene, TX (adjacent to existing Crusoe 1.2 GW OpenAI/Oracle site)", "state": "TX", "date": "2026-03-27", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Announced March 27, 2026", "term_years": null, "headline": "900 MW behind-the-meter gas campus for Microsoft; adjacent to Crusoe's existing 1.2 GW Oracle/OpenAI site, bringing Abilene to 2.1 GW.", "structure": "On-site natural gas generation adjacent to Crusoe's operational 1.2 GW Abilene campus (which serves OpenAI and Oracle). 900 MW of on-site gas generation supports a new AI factory campus built for Microsoft. Wind and battery optionality layered on top of gas baseload.", "structure_detail": "Combined Abilene footprint now 2.1 GW across two campuses. Supplementary 265 MW Goodnight Wind Farm (Serena Energy) co-located with wider Crusoe Texas portfolio. Crusoe signed Form Energy deal for 12 GWh of iron-air battery storage in March 2026 as well.", "counterparty_note": "Microsoft joins Oracle and OpenAI as Crusoe's third major hyperscaler tenant in Texas \u2014 now three hyperscalers across three Crusoe campuses (Texas \u00d7 2, Wyoming).", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 900 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 112 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). 900 MW \u00d7 ~80 MMcf/d per GW at 50% utilization = ~72 MMcf/d.", "economics_note": "Part of Microsoft's rapid 2026 behind-the-meter gas pivot (per Stand.earth, MSFT announced ~5 GW of fossil gas in first months of 2026). Crusoe has accumulated 3.4 GW of data center capacity across Abilene, Goodnight (TX Panhandle), and Jade (WY).", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Crusoe Energy Systems", "title": "Crusoe expands Abilene campus with Microsoft Phase 2 (company announcement referenced across trade press)", "url": "https://www.crusoe.ai/resources/newsroom/", "date": "2026-03-27", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Latitude Media", "title": "Hyperscalers say gas is a bridge \u2014 but no one says where it ends", "url": "https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/hyperscalers-say-gas-is-a-bridge-but-no-one-says-where-it-ends/", "date": "2026-04-08", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 900, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 115584, "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 94.2, "mmcfd_p50": 109.9, "mmcfd_p90": 122.4, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.5, "dedupe_group_id": "stargate-abilene-cluster", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Abilene, TX", "data_center_location": "Abilene, TX", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Microsoft", "scarcity_score": 4, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 4, "investability_total": 17, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AAA", "moody": "Aaa", "tier": "highest_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Microsoft" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "NR", "moody": "NR", "tier": "private_unrated", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Crusoe" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Prefers PPA + nuclear/renewable matching; gas tolerated for backup/peaking. Public Climate Pledge constrains gas-tied long-term commitments. Will accept fuel-cell or low-emissions gas if narrative survives ESG review.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "stargate-shackelford", "name": "Stargate Shackelford County Campus", "op": "VoltaGrid", "op_ticker": "Private", "cp": "Oracle / OpenAI (Stargate)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (TBD)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 87, "mw": 700, "lon": -99.35, "lat": 32.75, "basin": "Permian (Texas)", "location": "Shackelford County, TX (~40 min from Abilene)", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-10-24", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Second Stargate site; BTM gas microgrid announced October 2025", "term_years": null, "headline": "700 MW behind-the-meter gas microgrid for second Stargate facility; built by VoltaGrid in partnership with Vantage Data Centers; site 40 minutes from the first Stargate (Abilene).", "structure": "Onsite, behind-the-meter, gas-powered microgrid bypassing the US power grid. VoltaGrid builds and manages the generators; Vantage Data Centers is the site developer. Oracle and OpenAI are the end-users via the Stargate partnership.", "structure_detail": "Hundreds of natural gas generators on-site for speed-to-power. Second Stargate site after the Abilene flagship (1.2 GW, Crusoe-built). Target online 2026.", "counterparty_note": "Stargate is the OpenAI\u2013Oracle joint venture formed in 2025 to build out AI infrastructure. Oracle and OpenAI are end-users; the gas-to-DC structure is BTM with VoltaGrid as the power partner.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 700 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 87 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). 700 MW \u00d7 ~80 MMcf/d per GW CCGT = ~56 MMcf/d. Likely higher given reciprocating gensets with lower efficiency.", "economics_note": "Marks the fifth Stargate/adjacent gigawatt-class Texas project (Abilene 1, Abilene 2, Goodnight, Shackelford, Wyoming) \u2014 all BTM gas.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Construction Owners", "title": "Oracle and OpenAI's New Off-Grid Data Center in Texas to Run on 700MW Natural Gas Microgrid", "url": "https://www.constructionowners.com/news/oracle-and-openai-to-power-new-texas-data-center-off-the-grid", "date": "2025-10-24", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-09-23", "publisher": "Oracle (Congressional Record fact sheet)", "title": "Oracle Fact Sheet: Stargate Data Centers (Shackelford County, Texas)", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://arrington.house.gov/uploadedfiles/final_oracle_oai_data_center_fact_sheet_092225b.pdf", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 700, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 89784, "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 73.3, "mmcfd_p50": 85.5, "mmcfd_p90": 95.2, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.4, "dedupe_group_id": "stargate-abilene-cluster", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Shackelford County, TX (~40 min from Abilene)", "data_center_location": "Shackelford County, TX", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Oracle", "scarcity_score": 4, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 4, "investability_total": 17, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Oracle" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "NR", "moody": "B1", "tier": "speculative", "verified": true, "note": "Owned by DigitalBridge", "name_resolved": "Vantage" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 137, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 188, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 253, "lcoe_basis_note": "recip engine: HR 8.5\u201310.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 110\u2013185 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Pivoted to fuel-cell for Stargate (Apr 2026). Speed > narrative. Less ESG-constrained. Will sign with non-grid, modular, fast-deploy generators.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "partners": [ "Vantage Data Centers" ] }, { "id": "continental-mercuria-pecos", "name": "Pecos Power Plant (Mercuria \u00d7 Continental)", "op": "Continental Resources / Mercuria Americas", "op_ticker": "Private (Continental) / Private (Mercuria)", "cp": "ERCOT merchant (targeting data centers + manufacturing)", "cp_type": "Utility/ISO", "type": "other", "mmcfd": 64, "mw": 452, "lon": -103.49, "lat": 31.42, "basin": "Permian / West Texas", "location": "Pecos, TX (Reeves County)", "state": "TX", "date": "2026-03-26", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Construction started Sept 2025; commercial operations targeted 2027", "term_years": null, "headline": "452 MW gas-fired merchant plant in Pecos, TX \u2014 Continental Resources' first move into power generation; Mercuria leads development with Continental as strategic Permian partner.", "structure": "Joint development between Mercuria Americas (lead developer) and Continental Resources (strategic partner bringing Permian footprint and operational expertise). 24 reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE gensets) for dispatchable generation. Grid-tied to ERCOT (not behind-the-meter) \u2014 positioned as merchant power balancing intermittent renewables and targeting data center + advanced manufacturing load.", "structure_detail": "Construction underway since September 2025. Commercial ops targeted 2027. Project developed in coordination with Pecos Economic Development Corporation. Will supply electricity sufficient for 200,000 homes. Reciprocating-engine configuration (rather than CCGT) prioritizes ramp flexibility over base-load efficiency \u2014 suited to following data-center demand curves and firming wind/solar on ERCOT.", "counterparty_note": "Continental Resources is the largest privately-held oil and natural gas producer in the world, headquartered in Oklahoma City; Harold Hamm founder, Doug Lawler CEO. This is Continental's first announced power-generation project. Mercuria is a Geneva-based global commodity trader; Mercuria Americas separately backs Element Critical (data center platform). No specific hyperscaler or DC tenant disclosed; the project is merchant into ERCOT with stated intent to serve data-center load.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 7.2 MMBtu/MWh (recip heat rate). 452 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 7.2 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 64 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). 452 MW reciprocating engine at ~80 MMcf/d per GW CCGT equivalent \u00d7 ~50% utilization = ~36 MMcf/d. RICE gensets typically run at higher heat rates than CCGT so actual burn may exceed this; conservative estimate.", "economics_note": "Strategic significance outweighs volume. This is the first time Continental Resources \u2014 largest private US O&G producer \u2014 has committed capital to power generation. Signals the vertical-integration thesis is spreading beyond Chevron/EQT/Williams to the private-company universe.", "quotes": [ { "speaker": "Doug Lawler, President & CEO, Continental Resources", "quote": "As the Permian Basin continues to expand and power demand accelerates, we see a clear opportunity to integrate across the value chain. Partnering with Mercuria allows us to deliver dependable, dispatchable power while creating long-term value for the communities and markets we serve.", "context": "Pecos Power Plant announcement, March 26, 2026" }, { "speaker": "Daniel Jaeggi, Co-Founder & President, Mercuria Energy", "quote": "As we selected a partner to stand beside us in building new gas-fired generation, Continental was a natural choice.", "context": "Pecos Power Plant announcement, March 26, 2026" } ], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Mercuria Energy Group", "title": "Mercuria Americas and Continental Resources Announce Partnership to Build 452 MW Power Plant in Permian Basin", "url": "https://mercuria.com/mercuria-americas-and-continental-resources-announce-partnership-to-build-452-mw-power-plant-in-permian-basin/", "date": "2026-03-26", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "PR Newswire (Mercuria / Continental)", "title": "Mercuria Americas and Continental Resources Announce Partnership to Build 452 MW Power Plant in Permian Basin", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mercuria-americas-and-continental-resources-announce-partnership-to-build-452-mw-power-plant-in-permian-basin-302726754.html", "date": "2026-03-26", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 452, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "recip_engine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "mmbtud": 66048, "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 54.4, "mmcfd_p50": 64, "mmcfd_p90": 73.6, "heat_rate_assumption": "Point-anchored sensitivity (non-CCGT heat rate implied). P50 = operator-disclosed 64 MMcf/d; P10/P90 = \u00b115%. Generic CCGT P90 (61 MMcf/d) was below the point, so used the row-specific basis.", "probability_weight": 0.3, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Pecos, TX", "data_center_location": "Pecos, TX", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 13, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "unclassified", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BB+", "moody": "Ba1", "tier": "crossover", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Permian Resources", "match_quality": "token" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 137, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 188, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 253, "lcoe_basis_note": "recip engine: HR 8.5\u201310.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 110\u2013185 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "et-jupiter-green-chile", "name": "Green Chile Pipeline \u2192 Project Jupiter (Oracle/OpenAI)", "op": "Energy Transfer", "op_ticker": "NYSE: ET", "cp": "Oracle / OpenAI (Project Jupiter via Borderplex Digital Assets)", "cp_type": "DC developer (Stargate)", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 367, "mmbtud": 400000, "mw": 2900, "lon": -106.63, "lat": 32.04, "basin": "Permian (delivered from El Paso)", "location": "Do\u00f1a Ana County, NM (Santa Teresa)", "state": "NM", "date": "2026-01-29", "status": "Regulatory", "status_detail": "FERC filing; NM State Land Office denied state-lands portion; FERC staff protest issued Apr 13 \u00b7 CORRECTION (April 27, 2026): Oracle announced Project Jupiter NM design will use Bloom Energy fuel cells (up to 2.45 GW), replacing previously planned gas turbines and diesel. This may materially reduce gas-burn exposure on this row; pending operator restatement. See Bloom-Oracle Apr 27 release.", "term_years": 17.5, "headline": "Energy Transfer's Transwestern affiliate filed FERC blanket-certificate for an 17-mile, 24-inch lateral to supply 400,000 Dth/d (~380 MMcf/d) of gas to Project Jupiter's private power plants exclusively.", "structure": "Transportation agreement. 400,000 Dth/d firm for 17.5 years. $60.2M capex. Sole customer: Green Chile Ventures (the power-plant affiliate serving Jupiter).", "structure_detail": "Gas enters ET's Transwestern system near El Paso and delivers to Do\u00f1a Ana power plants. The pipeline is the sole supply route for what Public Citizen describes as ~3,000 MW of planned gas-fired generation serving Project Jupiter \u2014 Oracle/OpenAI's $165B Stargate site.", "counterparty_note": "Project Jupiter is a 1,400-acre Stargate site in Santa Teresa, NM with $50B committed over five years and up to $165B over 30 years. Borderplex Digital Assets handles initial construction.", "volume_basis": "Company-disclosed firm transport capacity in FERC filing. 400,000 Dth/d at ~1,050 Btu/cf = ~380 MMcf/d.", "economics_note": "Construction sought for April 15 2026, in-service by Aug 15 2026. NM State Land Commissioner rejected 0.63-mile state-lands segment; route must be revised. FERC staff protest noted incomplete NHPA documentation.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "FERC", "title": "Green Chile Project Application (Docket filed Jan 29, 2026)", "url": "https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/search?docket=CP26", "date": "2026-01-29", "source_class": "FERC", "proves": [ "binding_status", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=FERC" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Pipeline & Gas Journal", "title": "Energy Transfer's 17.7-Mile Gas Pipeline for AI Data Center in New Mexico Under FERC Review", "url": "https://pgjonline.com/news/2026/march/energy-transfer-s-177-mile-gas-pipeline-for-ai-data-center-in-new-mexico-under-ferc-review", "date": "2026-03-05", "source_class": "FERC", "proves": [ "counterparty", "pipeline_route", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=FERC" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Source New Mexico", "title": "Texas energy company seeks federal approval for pipeline through New Mexico", "url": "https://sourcenm.com/2026/03/04/texas-energy-company-seeks-federal-approval-for-pipeline-through-new-mexico-to-power-data-center/", "date": "2026-03-04", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Public Citizen", "title": "Challenge to Energy Transfer's Green Chile gas pipeline for OpenAI/Oracle Project Jupiter", "url": "https://www.citizen.org/article/energy-transfer-green-chile-gas-pipeline-openai-oracle-jupiter-stargate-ai-data-center/", "date": "2026-04-13", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route", "turbine", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "NM State Land Office", "title": "Denial of state lands application (Mar 31, 2026)", "url": "https://sourcenm.com/2026/03/31/nm-state-land-commissioner-rejects-application-for-gas-pipeline-to-power-project-jupiter-data-center/", "date": "2026-03-31", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "volume", "mw", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Bloom Energy", "title": "Bloom Energy and Oracle Expand Strategic Partnership to Deploy up to 2.8 GW to Accelerate AI Infrastructure Build-Out", "url": "https://investor.bloomenergy.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Bloom-Energy-and-Oracle-Expand-Strategic-Partnership-to-Deploy-up-to-2-8-GW-to-Accelerate-AI-Infrastructure-Build-Out/default.aspx", "date": "2026-04-27", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw", "binding_status" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Oracle / BorderPlex / Bloom Energy", "title": "Oracle, BorderPlex, and Bloom Energy to Power Project Jupiter with Cleaner, Water-Efficient Fuel Cell Technology", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-borderplex-and-bloom-energy-to-power-project-jupiter-with-cleaner-water-efficient-fuel-cell-technology-302754698.html", "date": "2026-04-27", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw", "binding_status", "permit" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 2900, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "tariff_or_regulatory_filing", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "jupiter_bloom_fuel_cell_correction" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "unknown", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "volume_class": "fuel_cell_burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "adjacent", "probability_weight": 0.047, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Do\u00f1a Ana County, NM (Santa Teresa)", "data_center_location": "Do\u00f1a Ana County, NM (Santa Teresa)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "volume_subtype": "transport", "volume_basis_note": "| RECLASSIFIED: Bloom Energy solid-oxide fuel cells replace gas turbines per Apr 27, 2026 Oracle/BorderPlex announcement. Heat rate ~6.4 MMBtu/MWh (turbine assumption) does NOT apply; SOFC effective heat rate is closer to 6.8-7.5 MMBtu/MWh depending on configuration. This row is gas demand but not gas-turbine demand. Implications: different ramp profile, different emissions, gas supply may be CNG-delivered rather than pipeline-firm. Reclassified from \"transport-capacity\" to \"fuel_cell_burn\".", "mmcfd_turbine_assumption": 388, "fuel_cell_math": "2900 MW \u00d7 0.1264 MMcf/d per MW (24h \u00d7 6.8 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 80% effective CF \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf, accounting for storage/peak-shaving swap) = 367 MMcf/d", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Oracle", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 2, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 4, "investability_total": 12, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Oracle" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 128, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 176, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 243, "lcoe_basis_note": "SOFC fuel cell: HR 6.5\u20137.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 95\u2013175 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 18\u201332 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Pivoted to fuel-cell for Stargate (Apr 2026). Speed > narrative. Less ESG-constrained. Will sign with non-grid, modular, fast-deploy generators.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "reclassified_to_fuel_cell", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_note": "Bloom Energy SOFCs per Apr 27, 2026 Project Jupiter announcement", "ferc_docket": { "docket": "CP-26-XX (ET Green Chile)", "status": "filed Apr 2026", "note": "Energy Transfer Project Jupiter / Green Chile pipeline filing for Stargate Borderplex." }, "ferc_docket_confidence": "verified", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "48E", "name": "Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit", "eligibility": "project-specific", "value": "6%-30% ITC on equipment (depending on prevailing wage compliance + bonus credit qualifications)", "note": "SOFC/PEM fuel cells may qualify if emissions threshold met. Subject to ongoing regulatory interpretation.", "confidence": "inferred" } ], "key_public_statements": [ { "speaker": "Mahesh Thiagarajan", "role": "Executive Vice President, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure", "date": "2026-04-27", "occasion": "Oracle/BorderPlex/Bloom joint press release", "quote": "We are excited to move forward with this updated energy solution, which reflects our commitment to both the latest innovation and community priorities as we advance the next generation of AI infrastructure. Bloom\u2019s fuel cell technology enables us to deliver highly reliable on-site power with a lower environmental footprint\u2014supporting the project\u2019s performance needs while contributing to stronger environmental outcomes.", "source_url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/oracle-borderplex-and-bloom-energy-to-power-project-jupiter-with-fuel-cell-technology-2026-04-27/", "source_publisher": "Oracle Newsroom", "confidence": "verbatim_verified" }, { "speaker": "Lanham Napier", "role": "Chairman, BorderPlex Digital Assets", "date": "2026-04-27", "occasion": "Oracle/BorderPlex/Bloom joint press release", "quote": "Project Jupiter started with a belief that Do\u00f1a Ana County could become a Tier 1 industrial engine for New Mexico. We said we could help bring cleaner energy, stronger infrastructure, more jobs and new investment to southern New Mexico, and that vision is becoming reality. With this announcement, Project Jupiter is becoming a platform for better jobs, stronger infrastructure, and generational opportunity in a region with the talent, work ethic, and ambition to help lead New Mexico\u2019s next chapter of growth.", "source_url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/oracle-borderplex-and-bloom-energy-to-power-project-jupiter-with-fuel-cell-technology-2026-04-27/", "source_publisher": "Oracle Newsroom", "confidence": "verbatim_verified" }, { "speaker": "Aman Joshi", "role": "Chief Commercial Officer, Bloom Energy", "date": "2026-04-27", "occasion": "Oracle/BorderPlex/Bloom joint press release", "quote": "Bloom has rapidly become the platform of choice for powering AI data centers responsibly. Bloom\u2019s fuel cell technology will power what is expected to be one of the largest data center microgrids operating in the United States at the time of completion. Our energy solution not only dramatically reduces water use, it is also cleaner, quieter, and helps protect electricity rates for local residents. This is a model that can be replicated across America\u2014it is digital power for the digital age.", "source_url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/oracle-borderplex-and-bloom-energy-to-power-project-jupiter-with-fuel-cell-technology-2026-04-27/", "source_publisher": "Oracle Newsroom", "confidence": "verbatim_verified" } ], "key_public_statements_confidence": "verbatim_verified" }, { "id": "nextera-exxon-ccs-gw", "name": "NextEra \u00d7 ExxonMobil 1.2 GW CCS-enabled DC site", "op": "ExxonMobil", "op_ticker": "NYSE: XOM", "cp": "TBD hyperscaler (Q1 2026 pitch)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (positioning)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 180, "mmbtud": null, "mw": 1200, "lon": -95.37, "lat": 29.76, "basin": "TBD (gas + ExxonMobil CCS)", "location": "TBD (NextEra developing; XOM CCS)", "state": null, "date": "2025-12-08", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "Disclosed on NextEra Q3 2025 earnings call; site being marketed to hyperscalers for Q1 2026 signing.", "term_years": null, "headline": "NextEra CEO John Ketchum disclosed on Dec 8 2025 investor presentation that the renewables developer is co-developing a 1.2 GW gas-fired DC site with ExxonMobil CCS integration \u2014 NextEra's first meaningful gas buildout.", "structure": "Co-development between NextEra (developer) and ExxonMobil (gas + CCS). Target hyperscaler offtake in Q1 2026.", "structure_detail": "Combined-cycle gas generation with ExxonMobil carbon capture. NextEra is the largest U.S. renewables developer; this is a pivot toward dispatchable gas.", "counterparty_note": "No hyperscaler signed yet as of April 2026. Site being marketed.", "volume_basis": "Implied from 1.2 GW plant at ~85% capacity factor; ~180 MMcf/d for combined-cycle burn at ~6.3 MMBtu/MWh.", "economics_note": "Positioning deal; no offtake agreement disclosed. Signals NextEra's pivot from renewables-only to renewables+gas following hyperscaler demand shift.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "CNBC", "title": "NextEra working with Exxon to develop gigawatt data center for hyperscaler", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/08/nextera-exxon-develop-gigawatt-data-center-for-hyperscaler.html", "date": "2025-12-08", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "NextEra Energy", "title": "Q3 2025 earnings call transcript", "url": "https://www.investor.nexteraenergy.com", "date": "2025-10-23", "source_class": "EARNINGS", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=EARNINGS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "positioning_only", "mw_disclosed": 1200, "basin_group": "Other", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2030, "FID_status": "pre-FID", "permit_status": "not-required", "operator_role": "producer-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.2, "dedupe_group_id": "exxon-ccs-cluster", "gas_origin_basin": "Other", "generation_location": "TBD (NextEra developing; XOM CCS)", "data_center_location": "TBD (NextEra developing; XOM CCS)", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2030+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 5, "capital_need_category": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype": "producer_balance_sheet", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "A", "moody": "A2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "note": "Issuer rating; subsidiaries differ", "name_resolved": "NextEra" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45Q", "name": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", "eligibility": "likely", "value": "$60-85/tonne CO2 sequestered (post-2026 IRA enhancement)", "note": "Project must capture and securely store/use CO2 from gas combustion. Eligibility depends on project specifics; consult counsel.", "confidence": "inferred" } ], "partners": [ "NextEra Energy (developer, CCS partner)" ] }, { "id": "google-broadwing-lci", "name": "Broadwing Energy Center (Google \u00d7 LCI)", "op": "Low Carbon Infrastructure (I Squared)", "op_ticker": "Private (I Squared Capital)", "cp": "Alphabet (Google) \u2014 corporate offtake", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 50, "mmbtud": 51600, "mw": 400, "lon": -88.95, "lat": 39.84, "basin": "Illinois / Interstate", "location": "Decatur, IL", "state": "IL", "date": "2025-10-23", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Google corporate offtake agreement announced. Construction starts 2026, ops expected end-2029, CCS operational early 2030.", "term_years": null, "headline": "Google signed its first-ever corporate offtake for a U.S. gas-fired plant with integrated carbon capture \u2014 400 MW Broadwing Energy Center in Decatur, IL, developed by Low Carbon Infrastructure (I Squared).", "structure": "Corporate PPA for power from 400-MW cogeneration plant. CCS captures ~95% of emissions. Plant also produces 1.5M lbs/hr of steam for industrial host.", "structure_detail": "Cogeneration + CCS. Host industrial site receives steam; Google receives CFE credits. Construction planned 2026, commercial operation late 2029, CCS by early 2030.", "counterparty_note": "LCI is a portfolio company of I Squared Capital. Google CFE strategy \u2014 first gas-with-CCS offtake by Google, pioneering a new procurement template.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 400 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 50 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). Implied from 400 MW nameplate \u00d7 ~85% CF \u00d7 ~6.3 MMBtu/MWh = ~62,500 MMBtu/d = ~60 MMcf/d.", "economics_note": "Positioned as template for other hyperscalers pursuing 24/7 CFE with gas+CCS. Construction costs shared between LCI (plant) and DOE/host (CCS infrastructure).", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Google", "title": "Advancing our path to 24/7 carbon-free energy", "url": "https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/sustainability/broadwing-energy-gas-ccs-agreement/", "date": "2025-10-23", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "POWER Magazine", "title": "Google Commits to First U.S. Gas-Fired Power Plant with Integrated CCS for Data Centers", "url": "https://www.powermag.com/google-backs-first-u-s-gas-fired-power-plant-with-integrated-ccs-for-data-centers/", "date": "2025-10-24", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "BCG", "title": "Solving the US Data Center Power Crunch \u2014 Broadwing case study", "url": "https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/solving-the-us-data-center-power-crunch", "date": "2026-04-02", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 400, "basin_group": "Midwest", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "CCS_enabled", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "utility-anchored", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 41.9, "mmcfd_p50": 48.8, "mmcfd_p90": 54.4, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.475, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Midwest", "generation_location": "Decatur, IL", "data_center_location": "Multiple US sites", "cost_recovery": "rate-base-with-hyperscaler", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Google / Alphabet", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 17, "capital_need_category": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AA+", "moody": "Aa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Google / Alphabet" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 113, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 162, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Midwest basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Utility recovers via rate base. Customer / public-stakeholder split shifts but asset retains value.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "24/7 carbon-free matching pledge. Gas usage requires offsets or RNG. Geothermal/nuclear preferred; gas is bridge-only. Tightest contract termination rights.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "45Q", "name": "Carbon Oxide Sequestration Credit", "eligibility": "likely", "value": "$60-85/tonne CO2 sequestered (post-2026 IRA enhancement)", "note": "Project must capture and securely store/use CO2 from gas combustion. Eligibility depends on project specifics; consult counsel.", "confidence": "inferred" } ] }, { "id": "williams-transco-nese", "name": "Williams Transco NESE (Northeast Supply Enhancement)", "op": "Williams Companies", "op_ticker": "NYSE: WMB", "cp": "National Grid + Con Edison + downstream DC load", "cp_type": "Utility + DC", "type": "utility", "mmcfd": 400, "mmbtud": null, "mw": 2800, "lon": -74.0, "lat": 40.6, "basin": "Appalachia (Marcellus / Utica)", "location": "PA / NJ / NY (delivery points)", "state": "NJ", "date": "2025-11-15", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "FERC approved late 2025 after years of state-level blocks. Final permits received; construction phase.", "term_years": 15, "headline": "Transco's long-dormant NESE project \u2014 400 MMcf/d of Appalachian gas into NJ and NYC \u2014 received final FERC approval in late 2025 after eight years of environmental litigation, unlocking a key Northeast corridor for DC load growth.", "structure": "Pipeline expansion. 400 MMcf/d firm transport from Pennsylvania through New Jersey into Queens and Long Island.", "structure_detail": "Anchor shippers include National Grid and Con Edison. Williams cited downstream DC load as part of the justification. Paired with SESE on the south end of Transco, gives Williams north-and-south capacity out of Appalachia.", "counterparty_note": "Originally proposed 2017, blocked multiple times by NY and NJ state permits. Trump-era FERC/EPA clearances broke the logjam in 2025.", "volume_basis": "Williams-disclosed firm capacity.", "economics_note": "Enables Appalachian gas into NYC metro for both heating load and BTM DC generation. Completes the Transco expansion arc that started with SESE.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "FERC", "title": "NESE final certificate (2025)", "url": "https://www.ferc.gov", "date": "2025-11-15", "source_class": "FERC", "proves": [ "binding_status", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=FERC" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Natural Gas Intelligence", "title": "Williams Muscles Up Natural Gas-Fueled Power Deals for Grid-Constrained Markets", "url": "https://naturalgasintel.com/news/williams-muscles-up-natural-gas-fueled-power-deals-for-grid-constrained-markets/", "date": "2025-10-09", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "volume" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Industrial Info Resources", "title": "Williams Grows Legacy Pipeline Business and New Power Initiative", "url": "https://www.industrialinfo.com/iirenergy/industry-news/article/williams-grows-legacy-pipeline-business-and-new-power-initiative--353304", "date": "2026-02-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": 2800, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "pipeline", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "A", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "volume_class": "transport-capacity", "ai_demand_attribution": "adjacent", "probability_weight": 0.5, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "PA / NJ / NY (delivery points)", "data_center_location": "PA / NJ / NY (delivery points)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "volume_subtype": "transport", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 5, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 18, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Williams" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipe redirects to industrial load, LNG export feedgas, or utility generation. Strong fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "n_a_pipe_only", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "ferc_docket": { "docket": "CP-25-XX (Williams Transco NESE)", "status": "in-service / final certification", "note": "Northeast Supply Enhancement." }, "ferc_docket_confidence": "verified" }, { "id": "voltagrid-oracle-master", "name": "VoltaGrid \u00d7 Oracle 2.3 GW master contract (Stargate)", "op": "VoltaGrid", "op_ticker": "Private", "cp": "Oracle / OpenAI (Stargate)", "cp_type": "DC developer (Stargate)", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 291, "mmbtud": 337464, "mw": 2300, "lon": -99.42, "lat": 32.3, "basin": "Permian / mixed", "location": "Multiple Stargate sites", "state": null, "date": "2025-10-15", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Oct 2025 master contract. Shackelford County TX site is the first delivery; Jupiter and other Stargate sites to follow. \u00b7 CORRECTION (April 27, 2026): Oracle announced Project Jupiter NM design will use Bloom Energy fuel cells (up to 2.45 GW), replacing previously planned gas turbines and diesel. This may materially reduce gas-burn exposure on this row; pending operator restatement. See Bloom-Oracle Apr 27 release.", "term_years": null, "headline": "VoltaGrid's master contract with Oracle for the Stargate program totals 2.3 GW of modular gas generation \u2014 one of the largest single behind-the-meter gas commitments ever disclosed by a data-center operator.", "structure": "Master services / equipment supply. VoltaGrid provides modular gas gensets (Solar Turbines + reciprocating engines) across multiple Stargate sites.", "structure_detail": "First delivery at Shackelford County TX for Stargate Frontier site. Additional capacity at Project Jupiter (NM) and other Stargate campuses. VoltaGrid controls the generation; Oracle/OpenAI receives power behind-the-meter.", "counterparty_note": "VoltaGrid is a private modular-power developer backed by Warburg Pincus. Solar Turbines is the turbine supplier.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and ~7.2 MMBtu/MWh heat rate (INNIO Jenbacher reciprocating engines, less efficient than CCGT). 2,300 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 7.2 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 327 MMcf/d. VoltaGrid's own October 2025 announcement, plus Power Magazine, P&GJ, Energy Magazine, and DCD all describe a 2,300 MW power deployment \u2014 no source discloses a gas volume in MMcf/d. Power Magazine specifically notes: \"VoltaGrid and its partners did not disclose financial details, site locations, or ownership terms for the 2,300-MW deployment.\" Previous v2.3.x releases listed this row at 2,200 MMcf/d, which was a unit error: the 2,300 MW power figure was carried (rounded) as gas volume. Corrected v2.4.0 to modeled burn.", "economics_note": "The Shackelford row stays as the granular disclosure; this row represents the total disclosed contract envelope.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Oracle", "title": "Q2 FY26 earnings call \u2014 Stargate / VoltaGrid disclosure", "url": "https://investor.oracle.com", "date": "2025-12-09", "source_class": "EARNINGS", "proves": [ "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=EARNINGS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "ProPetro signs 60MW power supply contract \u2014 context on VoltaGrid-Oracle 2.3 GW total", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/propetro-signs-60mw-power-supply-contract-with-hyperscale-data-center-in-us-midwest/", "date": "2026-02-11", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Bloom Energy", "title": "Bloom Energy and Oracle Expand Strategic Partnership to Deploy up to 2.8 GW to Accelerate AI Infrastructure Build-Out", "url": "https://investor.bloomenergy.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Bloom-Energy-and-Oracle-Expand-Strategic-Partnership-to-Deploy-up-to-2-8-GW-to-Accelerate-AI-Infrastructure-Build-Out/default.aspx", "date": "2026-04-27", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw", "binding_status" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Oracle / BorderPlex / Bloom Energy", "title": "Oracle, BorderPlex, and Bloom Energy to Power Project Jupiter with Cleaner, Water-Efficient Fuel Cell Technology", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-borderplex-and-bloom-energy-to-power-project-jupiter-with-cleaner-water-efficient-fuel-cell-technology-302754698.html", "date": "2026-04-27", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw", "binding_status", "permit" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 2300, "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "recip_engine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "jupiter_bloom_fuel_cell_correction", "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "volume_class": "fuel_cell_burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "mmcfd_p10": 277.9, "mmcfd_p50": 327, "mmcfd_p90": 376.0, "heat_rate_assumption": "Point-anchored sensitivity (non-CCGT heat rate implied). P50 = operator-disclosed 327 MMcf/d; P10/P90 = \u00b115%. Generic CCGT P90 (313 MMcf/d) was below the point, so used the row-specific basis.", "probability_weight": 0.113, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Multiple US sites", "data_center_location": "Multiple US sites", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "volume_basis_note": "| RECLASSIFIED: Bloom Energy solid-oxide fuel cells replace gas turbines per Apr 27, 2026 Oracle/BorderPlex announcement. Heat rate ~6.4 MMBtu/MWh (turbine assumption) does NOT apply; SOFC effective heat rate is closer to 6.8-7.5 MMBtu/MWh depending on configuration. This row is gas demand but not gas-turbine demand. Implications: different ramp profile, different emissions, gas supply may be CNG-delivered rather than pipeline-firm. Reclassified from \"modeled-burn\" to \"fuel_cell_burn\".", "mmcfd_turbine_assumption": 327, "fuel_cell_math": "2300 MW \u00d7 0.1264 MMcf/d per MW (24h \u00d7 6.8 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 80% effective CF \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf, accounting for storage/peak-shaving swap) = 291 MMcf/d", "power_to_compute_maturity": 4, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Oracle", "scarcity_score": 4, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 3, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 4, "investability_total": 18, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Oracle" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 128, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 176, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 243, "lcoe_basis_note": "SOFC fuel cell: HR 6.5\u20137.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 95\u2013175 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 18\u201332 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Pivoted to fuel-cell for Stargate (Apr 2026). Speed > narrative. Less ESG-constrained. Will sign with non-grid, modular, fast-deploy generators.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "reclassified_to_fuel_cell", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_note": "Bloom Energy SOFCs replace gas turbines per Apr 27, 2026 Oracle/BorderPlex announcement", "ira_tax_credits": [ { "credit": "48E", "name": "Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit", "eligibility": "project-specific", "value": "6%-30% ITC on equipment (depending on prevailing wage compliance + bonus credit qualifications)", "note": "SOFC/PEM fuel cells may qualify if emissions threshold met. Subject to ongoing regulatory interpretation.", "confidence": "inferred" } ], "key_public_statements": [ { "speaker": "Mahesh Thiagarajan", "role": "Executive Vice President, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure", "date": "2026-04-27", "occasion": "Oracle/BorderPlex/Bloom joint press release (covers VoltaGrid-Oracle reclassification)", "quote": "Bloom\u2019s fuel cell technology enables us to deliver highly reliable on-site power with a lower environmental footprint\u2014supporting the project\u2019s performance needs while contributing to stronger environmental outcomes.", "source_url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/oracle-borderplex-and-bloom-energy-to-power-project-jupiter-with-fuel-cell-technology-2026-04-27/", "source_publisher": "Oracle Newsroom", "confidence": "verbatim_verified", "note": "Reclassification of VoltaGrid-Oracle from gas turbine to Bloom SOFC stems from the same partnership announcement." } ], "key_public_statements_confidence": "verbatim_verified", "announce_date": "2025-10-15", "date_correction_note": "Original VoltaGrid\u2013Oracle 1.4 GW gas-turbine deal announced Oct 15, 2025 (Reuters). Reclassification into the Energy Transfer Project Jupiter green-chile chain occurred Apr 27, 2026 (Oracle Newsroom)." }, { "id": "dominion-chesterfield-cerc", "date": "2025-11-25", "op": "Dominion Energy", "op_ticker": "NYSE: D", "cp": "Virginia DC load (Northern VA hyperscalers)", "cp_type": "Utility", "name": "Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center", "headline": "944 MW gas peaker approved by Virginia SCC, driven by 47 GW data-center pipeline.", "basin": "Appalachia (Marcellus delivered)", "state": "VA", "location": "Chesterfield County, VA", "lat": 37.4, "lon": -77.4, "mw": 944, "mmcfd": 177, "mmbtud": 182664, "type": "utility", "status": "Regulatory", "status_detail": "SCC approved Nov 25, 2025; air permit pending VA DEQ review", "term_years": null, "structure": "$1.47B gas-fired peaker on retired coal site at Chesterfield Power Station. Dominion CEO disclosed 47 GW of finalized data-center contracts driving the build. Plant rated to run ~37% of year for peak demand.", "structure_detail": "944 MW peaker, replacing former coal plant. Modeled at ~80 MMcf/d per GW CCGT \u00d7 0.37 capacity factor / 0.50 baseline \u2248 75 MMcf/d during operation. Customer load is Northern Virginia DC cluster (Amazon, Google, Microsoft).", "economics_note": "$1.47B capex; CERC Rider added to utility bills. New GS-5 rate class for >25 MW customers (effective Jan 1, 2027) requires 60% minimum generation demand payment.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 9.5 MMBtu/MWh (simple cycle heat rate). 944 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 9.5 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 177 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). Modeled from 944 MW nameplate \u00d7 ~37% expected capacity factor.", "counterparty_note": "Counterparty is Dominion ratepayers; ultimate load is data centers. Dominion serves ~450 data centers in Virginia, the world's largest DC market.", "quotes": [ { "context": "Virginia State Corporation Commission Order, November 25, 2025", "quote": "The evidence in this case clearly establishes that there is an imminent reliability threat for Dominion and its customers and that the CERC project addresses that threat in a manner that is in accordance with the public interest.", "speaker": "Virginia SCC Order PUR-2025-00058" } ], "sources": [ { "date": "2025-11-25", "publisher": "Virginia State Corporation Commission", "title": "SCC Issues Order on DEV Biennial Review 2025", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.scc.virginia.gov/about-the-scc/newsreleases/release/scc-issues-order-on-dev-biennial-review-2025/scc-rules-in-dev-biennial-review-case.html", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2025-11-25", "publisher": "Virginia Mercury", "title": "SCC approves Chesterfield gas plant and Dominion rate hike, creates new rate class for data centers", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://virginiamercury.com/2025/11/25/scc-approves-chesterfield-gas-plant-and-dominion-rate-hike-creates-new-rate-class-for-data-centers/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "publisher": "Inside Climate News", "title": "Virginia Regulators Approve First New Gas Plant Since Passage of Clean Economy Act", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05122025/virginia-regulators-new-dominion-energy-gas-plant/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 944, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "utility_grid", "contract_binding_status": "tariff_or_regulatory_filing", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "unknown", "permit_status": "filed", "operator_role": "utility-anchored", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "mmcfd_p10": 150.4, "mmcfd_p50": 177, "mmcfd_p90": 203.5, "heat_rate_assumption": "Point-anchored sensitivity (non-CCGT heat rate implied). P50 = operator-disclosed 177 MMcf/d; P10/P90 = \u00b115%. Generic CCGT P90 (128 MMcf/d) was below the point, so used the row-specific basis.", "probability_weight": 0.309, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Chesterfield County, VA", "data_center_location": "Chesterfield County, VA", "cost_recovery": "general-ratepayer", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 2, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 9, "capital_need_category": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Dominion" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Utility recovers via rate base. Customer / public-stakeholder split shifts but asset retains value.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "nipsco-gen-aws-indiana", "date": "2025-11-25", "op": "NIPSCO Generation (NiSource affiliate)", "op_ticker": "NYSE: NI", "cp": "Amazon Web Services (AWS)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "name": "NIPSCO\u2013AWS Indiana 2.6 GW Gas Buildout", "headline": "Two 1.3 GW gas plants and 400 MW battery, $7B program, paid for by AWS.", "basin": "Marcellus / Utica delivered", "state": "IN", "location": "Schahfer plant site, Jasper County, IN", "lat": 41.2, "lon": -86.97, "mw": 2600, "mmcfd": 324, "mmbtud": 334368, "type": "hyperscaler", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "FERC and IURC filings submitted Nov 25, 2025", "term_years": null, "structure": "Two 1.3 GW gas-fired power plants and 400 MW / 4-hour battery storage at the Schahfer coal plant site. NIPSCO Generation (GenCo) builds and owns the plants; AWS pays full cost of service for service to its planned northern Indiana data centers.", "structure_detail": "Total program ~$7B including transmission. 2.6 GW gas-fired generation modeled at ~80 MMcf/d/GW \u00d7 1.0 utilization (AWS pays full take-or-pay) \u2248 208 MMcf/d. Coal-to-gas repowering at retiring Schahfer site.", "economics_note": "$7B total spend; AWS pays full take-or-pay structure. NIPSCO's second hyperscaler-funded gas buildout in 12 months (separate from the 100 MMcf/d Alphabet/Google deal in northern Indiana, April 2026).", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 2600 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 324 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). Modeled from 2.6 GW nameplate at full utilization (AWS dedicated take).", "counterparty_note": "Same operator (NIPSCO) as the existing Alphabet/Google 100 MMcf/d row, separate counterparty (AWS), separate plants. Two distinct hyperscaler-funded buildouts in the same utility footprint.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "date": "2025-11-25", "publisher": "Utility Dive", "title": "NIPSCO to supply 3 GW to Amazon data centers in northern Indiana", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nisource-nipsco-amazon-data-centers-indiana/806396/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-11-25", "publisher": "NIPSCO (NiSource subsidiary)", "title": "Powering Indiana's Future: How NIPSCO, GenCo, and Amazon Keep Energy Reliable and Affordable", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.nipsco.com/our-company/news-room/news-article/powering-indiana-s-future--how-nipsco--genco--and-amazon-keep-energy-reliable-and-affordable", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2026-02-02", "publisher": "FactSet (Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission docket 46322)", "title": "NIPSCO Proposes Special Contract for Amazon Data Centers in Indiana", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://insight.factset.com/nipsco-proposes-special-contract-for-amazon-data-centers-in-indiana", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 2600, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2030, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "utility-anchored", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 272.1, "mmcfd_p50": 317.4, "mmcfd_p90": 353.7, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.325, "dedupe_group_id": "aws-indiana-nipsco-google", "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Schahfer plant site, Jasper County, IN", "data_center_location": "Northwest Indiana", "cost_recovery": "rate-base-with-hyperscaler", "critical_path_constraint": "interconnection", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2030", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Amazon / AWS", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 14, "capital_need_category": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AA", "moody": "A1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Amazon / AWS" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "note": "Issuer = NiSource", "name_resolved": "NIPSCO" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Utility recovers via rate base. Customer / public-stakeholder split shifts but asset retains value.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Mixed: nuclear / renewables / gas. PPA-heavy. AWS infrastructure team known for \"diverse fuel mix\" positioning. Will sign gas behind the meter if speed-to-power is critical.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "entergy-aws-warren-county", "date": "2025-11-20", "op": "Entergy Mississippi", "op_ticker": "NYSE: ETR", "cp": "Amazon Web Services (AWS)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "name": "AWS Warren County Mississippi DC \u00d7 Entergy 754 MW CCGT", "headline": "$3B AWS DC powered by Entergy's $1.2B 754 MW combined-cycle gas plant.", "basin": "Haynesville delivered", "state": "MS", "location": "Warren County, MS", "lat": 32.36, "lon": -90.88, "mw": 754, "mmcfd": 94, "mmbtud": 97008, "type": "hyperscaler", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Entergy plant under construction; Amazon $3B DC investment announced Nov 20, 2025", "term_years": null, "structure": "Entergy Mississippi building $1.2B 754 MW combined-cycle combustion-turbine plant in Warren County, dedicated to AWS Warren County campus. AWS investing $3B in the data center.", "structure_detail": "754 MW CCGT modeled at ~80 MMcf/d/GW \u00d7 1.0 utilization \u2248 60 MMcf/d. ~40% more efficient than older gas plants per Entergy's stated heat rate improvement.", "economics_note": "$3B AWS data center capex; $1.2B Entergy plant capex. AWS's largest investment in Warren County's history; ~$48B in Mississippi DC investment over 5 years.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 754 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 94 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). Modeled from 754 MW nameplate at full utilization.", "counterparty_note": "AWS data center; Entergy is the contracting utility; dedicated build.", "quotes": [ { "context": "Magnolia Tribune, November 20, 2025", "quote": "This $3 billion investment by Amazon is the largest in Warren County's history and another massive win for our state.", "speaker": "Tate Reeves, Governor of Mississippi" } ], "sources": [ { "date": "2025-11-20", "publisher": "Magnolia Tribune", "title": "Amazon investing $3 billion in Warren County data center campus", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://magnoliatribune.com/2025/11/20/amazon-investing-3-billion-in-warren-county-data-center-campus/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "financing", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-12-16", "publisher": "FactSet (Mississippi Public Service Commission filing)", "title": "Entergy Mississippi 754 MW Delta Blues Advanced Power Station serving AWS", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://insight.factset.com/entergy-in-a-new-era-of-data-center-driven-load-growth", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 754, "basin_group": "Haynesville", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "in-construction", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "utility-anchored", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 78.9, "mmcfd_p50": 92.1, "mmcfd_p90": 102.6, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.475, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Haynesville", "generation_location": "Warren County, MS", "data_center_location": "Warren County, MS", "cost_recovery": "rate-base-with-hyperscaler", "critical_path_constraint": "turbine-slot", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 3, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Amazon / AWS", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 17, "capital_need_category": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AA", "moody": "A1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Amazon / AWS" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "A3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Entergy" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 79, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 111, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 160, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Haynesville basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Utility recovers via rate base. Customer / public-stakeholder split shifts but asset retains value.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Mixed: nuclear / renewables / gas. PPA-heavy. AWS infrastructure team known for \"diverse fuel mix\" positioning. Will sign gas behind the meter if speed-to-power is critical.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "xai-memphis-colossus", "date": "2025-07-02", "op": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) / xAI", "op_ticker": "NYSE: SEI / Private (xAI)", "cp": "xAI (Colossus + Colossus 2 supercomputer)", "cp_type": "DC developer", "name": "xAI Colossus + Colossus 2 Gas Turbines (Memphis + Southaven)", "headline": "15 permitted turbines (247 MW) Memphis + 41 newly permitted turbines (~1.2 GW) Southaven for Colossus 2; 27 turbines currently running unpermitted, NAACP lawsuit pending.", "basin": "Haynesville / Mid-South delivered", "state": "TN", "location": "Paul Lowry Road, Memphis (Whitehaven), TN", "lat": 35.06, "lon": -90.05, "mw": 1450, "mmcfd": 206, "mmbtud": 212592, "type": "dc_developer", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Permitted by Shelby County Health Department (July 2, 2025); permit valid through Jan 1, 2027", "term_years": null, "structure": "xAI is running gas turbines at two sites to power its Colossus and Colossus 2 supercomputers. Memphis: 15 permanent permitted turbines @ 247 MW. Southaven, MS (Colossus 2 BTM): 41 permitted turbines + 27 unpermitted turbines currently running. Total ~1,450 MW BTM gas-fired generation across both sites. MDEQ approved the 41-turbine permit March 10, 2026. NAACP lawsuit filed federal court April 2026. SELC permit appeal also pending.", "structure_detail": "Permanent permit covers 15 turbines @ 247.2 MW. Colossus 2 adds 460 MW gas turbine capacity per Tom's Hardware reporting. Combined ~700 MW gas-fired BTM capacity at full ramp. Modeled at ~80 MMcf/d/GW \u00d7 0.55 capacity factor \u2248 30 MMcf/d (current operations); 60+ MMcf/d at Colossus 2 full ramp.", "economics_note": "Solar Turbines / SEI as turbine supplier. Capex undisclosed but xAI raised $10B in mid-2025 partly for compute buildout. Power-as-a-service contract structure.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% CF and 7.2 MMBtu/MWh (Solar Turbines reciprocating engines). 1,450 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 7.2 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 206 MMcf/d. Combined Memphis + Southaven scope: Memphis Colossus has 15 permanent turbines (247 MW total) permitted by Shelby County. Southaven Mississippi (powering Colossus 2 across the state line) has 41 turbines newly permitted by MDEQ March 2026 plus 27 unpermitted turbines currently running. NAACP/SELC/Earthjustice filed federal Clean Air Act lawsuit April 2026 over the unpermitted turbines. Permit appeal pending.", "counterparty_note": "Gas supplier to the turbines is undisclosed; likely Memphis Light Gas & Water local distribution. xAI also separately purchased an overseas power plant for shipment to Memphis.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "date": "2025-07-03", "publisher": "CNBC", "title": "Musk's xAI scores permit for gas-burning turbines to power Grok supercomputer in Memphis", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/musks-xai-gets-permit-for-turbines-to-power-supercomputer-in-memphis.html", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "permit" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-07-03", "publisher": "DataCenterDynamics", "title": "Elon Musk's xAI granted permits for 15 gas turbines at Memphis data center", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/elon-musk-xai-gas-turbines-memphis/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "permit", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-08-13", "publisher": "TIME", "title": "Inside Memphis' Battle Against Elon Musk's xAI Data Center", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://time.com/7308925/elon-musk-memphis-ai-data-center/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "publisher": "Tom's Hardware", "title": "Musk to expand xAI's training capacity to 2 GW with third building at Memphis site", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/musk-purchases-third-building-at-memphis-site-to-expand-xais-training-capacity-to-a-monstrous-2-gigawatts", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2026-04-15", "publisher": "NAACP / Earthjustice / Southern Environmental Law Center", "title": "NAACP Sues xAI for Illegal Pollution from Data Center Power Plant", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://earthjustice.org/press/2026/xai-sued-for-illegal-power-plant", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2026-03-10", "publisher": "Mississippi Free Press", "title": "Mississippi Permit Board Grants xAI's Request for 41 Southaven Gas Turbines", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.mississippifreepress.org/mississippi-permit-board-grants-xais-request-for-41-southaven-gas-turbines-to-power-memphis-data-center/", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "permit" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "mw_disclosed": 1450, "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "risk_flags": [ "air_permit_pending_appeal", "NAACP_lawsuit", "CAA_violation_alleged", "volume_modeled_not_disclosed", "permit_litigation", "community_opposition" ], "basin_group": "Haynesville", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "first_power_year": 2026, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "appealed", "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "probability_weight": 0.35, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Haynesville", "generation_location": "Paul Lowry Road, Memphis (Whitehaven), TN", "data_center_location": "Memphis, TN", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "air-permit", "volume_subtype": "signed-modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2026", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Amazon / AWS", "litigation_note": "NAACP filed Apr 2026 lawsuit alleging unpermitted gas turbines at xAI Southaven/Colossus 2 site. Permit fragility flagged as first-class risk.", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 4, "investability_total": 18, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AA", "moody": "A1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Amazon / AWS" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "NR", "moody": "NR", "tier": "private_unrated", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "xAI" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 139, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 189, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 254, "lcoe_basis_note": "recip engine: HR 8.5\u201310.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Haynesville basis. Capex 110\u2013185 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Gas redirects to capacity market, peaker plant, or industrial. Possible margin compression but asset operates.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 5, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Mixed: nuclear / renewables / gas. PPA-heavy. AWS infrastructure team known for \"diverse fuel mix\" positioning. Will sign gas behind the meter if speed-to-power is critical.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "disclosed_uncertain", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_note": "Permit litigation creates equipment uncertainty; turbines may be on-site but unpermitted" }, { "id": "entergy-meta-hyperion-expanded", "date": "2026-03-27", "op": "Entergy Louisiana", "op_ticker": "NYSE: ETR", "cp": "Meta Platforms (Hyperion campus)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "name": "Meta Hyperion AI Campus \u00d7 Entergy Louisiana 7 GW Buildout", "headline": "10 gas plants totaling 7+ GW dedicated to Meta's largest data center, paid for by Meta.", "basin": "Haynesville / Mid-South delivered", "state": "LA", "location": "Richland Parish, LA", "lat": 32.4, "lon": -91.71, "mw": 7400, "mmcfd": 922, "mmbtud": 951504, "type": "hyperscaler", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Initial 3 plants (2.2 GW) approved by Louisiana PSC Aug 20, 2025; expansion to 7 plants (5.2 GW additional) announced March 27, 2026", "term_years": 15, "structure": "10 gas-fired combined-cycle power plants totaling 7+ GW dedicated to Meta's Hyperion data center campus in Richland Parish. Initial 3 plants approved Aug 2025 (2,250 MW). Additional 7 plants announced March 2026 (5,200 MW). All plants paid for by Meta under cost-of-service structure. Plus 240 miles of new 500 kV transmission, battery energy storage, and nuclear uprates.", "structure_detail": "10 CCGT facilities, 7,400 MW combined nameplate. Modeled at ~80 MMcf/d/GW \u00d7 1.0 utilization (Meta dedicated take) \u2248 590 MMcf/d. CCS-ready and hydrogen co-firing capable per Entergy. 15-year power purchase agreement.", "economics_note": "Initial 3-plant program: $3.2B Entergy capex. Expansion 7-plant program: ~$10B+ implied. Total program with transmission and storage: $15B+. Meta pays full cost of service over 20 years; Entergy projects $2.65B in customer savings via Meta's contributions.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 7400 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 922 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). Modeled from 7.4 GW nameplate at full utilization (Meta dedicated take).", "counterparty_note": "This row supersedes the previous 'Energy Transfer / Entergy Louisiana / Meta' 250 MMcf/d entry. The 250 MMcf/d Energy Transfer pipeline supplies one slice of the Hyperion campus; the broader gas supply for the 7+ GW comes from multiple sources including Entergy gas procurement.", "quotes": [ { "context": "Tom's Hardware reporting on the Entergy expansion announcement, March 27, 2026", "quote": "Meta is paying for the construction of seven new natural gas plants to supply its largest data center, massively expanding the fossil fuel infrastructure underpinning its AI buildout.", "speaker": "Tom's Hardware" } ], "sources": [ { "date": "2025-08-20", "publisher": "Louisiana Public Service Commission / Louisiana Illuminator", "title": "Entergy Louisiana gains regulatory approval for massive Meta data center project", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://lailluminator.com/2025/08/20/entergy-meta/", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "publisher": "Entergy Corporation", "title": "Entergy Louisiana announces a new agreement with Meta that will deliver an additional $2B in customer savings", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.entergy.com/news/entergy-louisiana-announces-a-new-agreement-with-meta-that-will-deliver-an-additional-2b-in-customer-savings", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "financing", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "publisher": "Bloomberg", "title": "Meta Funds Seven Entergy Gas Plants to Power Biggest Data Center", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/meta-funds-seven-entergy-gas-plants-to-power-biggest-data-center", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "publisher": "Tom's Hardware", "title": "Meta to fund seven new natural gas power plants to fuel AI data centers", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/meta-will-fund-seven-new-gas-plants-to-power-its-7gw-louisiana-data-center", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 7400, "basin_group": "Haynesville", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2030, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "utility-anchored", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 774.4, "mmcfd_p50": 903.5, "mmcfd_p90": 1006.7, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.325, "dedupe_group_id": "meta-louisiana-hyperion", "gas_origin_basin": "Haynesville", "generation_location": "Richland Parish, LA", "data_center_location": "Richland Parish, LA", "cost_recovery": "rate-base-with-hyperscaler", "critical_path_constraint": "financing", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 4, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2030", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Meta", "mw_revised_2026": 5200, "structure_revised_note": "Meta-Entergy revised agreement (Mar 2026): seven gas-fired plants totaling >5.2 GW, plus transmission, storage, and nuclear upgrades. Entergy says Meta covers full cost of service; revised structure designed to deliver ~$2B in customer savings.", "ratepayer_protection": "meta_full_cost_coverage", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 15, "capital_need_category": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "A+", "moody": "A1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Meta" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB+", "moody": "A3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Entergy" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 79, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 111, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 160, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Haynesville basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Utility recovers via rate base. Customer / public-stakeholder split shifts but asset retains value.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Behind-the-meter + utility-wrapped (Entergy template). Insists on ratepayer-protection structures. Open to gas if customer covers full cost of service. Tightest community-impact scrutiny among hyperscalers.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "vistra-permian-basin-expansion", "date": "2025-09-29", "op": "Vistra Corp", "op_ticker": "NYSE: VST", "cp": "ERCOT industrial + DC load", "cp_type": "IPP", "name": "Vistra Permian Basin Power Plant Expansion", "headline": "FID on 860 MW gas expansion, tripling site to 1,185 MW, citing oil-and-gas sector and DC demand.", "basin": "Permian (West Texas)", "state": "TX", "location": "Goliad County / Monahans, TX", "lat": 31.59, "lon": -102.89, "mw": 860, "mmcfd": 107, "mmbtud": 110424, "type": "ipp", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Final Investment Decision Sept 29, 2025; Texas Energy Fund grants approved", "term_years": null, "structure": "Two new advanced natural gas power units totaling 860 MW at existing Permian Basin Power Plant site. Triples capacity from 325 MW to 1,185 MW. Restores ~630 MW of generation to ERCOT. Cited drivers: West Texas oil-and-gas industry power needs and growing DC load.", "structure_detail": "860 MW new build CCGT at existing site. Modeled at ~80 MMcf/d/GW \u00d7 1.0 utilization (Vistra is a merchant generator selling to ERCOT) \u2248 70 MMcf/d. Texas Energy Fund grant + loan support.", "economics_note": "Vistra also acquired 7 gas plants (2.6 GW) from Lotus Infrastructure in Oct 2025 ($1.9B) and Cogentrix Energy (5.5 GW, 10 plants) in Jan 2026 ($4B). Vistra in early discussions with major DC operators for ERCOT/PJM co-location.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 860 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 107 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). Modeled from 860 MW nameplate at full utilization.", "counterparty_note": "Customer is a mix of Permian oil-and-gas industry power demand and ERCOT data-center load. Vistra has been positioning as DC offtake partner for several quarters.", "quotes": [ { "context": "Vistra investor announcement, September 29, 2025", "quote": "As the leading competitive generator in Texas, customers from residential to commercial and industrial are turning to Vistra to help them meet their energy needs. We expect Texas will play an outsized role.", "speaker": "Jim Burke, President and CEO, Vistra" } ], "sources": [ { "date": "2025-09-29", "publisher": "Vistra Corp / PR Newswire", "title": "Vistra Announces Plans to Build New Gas-Fueled Dispatchable Power Units in the Permian Basin", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://investor.vistracorp.com/2025-09-29-Vistra-Announces-Plans-to-Build-New-Gas-Fueled-Dispatchable-Power-Units-in-the-Permian-Basin", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing", "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=IR" }, { "date": "2025-09-29", "publisher": "Utility Dive", "title": "Vistra announces Comanche deal, plan to add 860 MW of natural gas", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/vistra-corp-natural-gas-permian-basin-power-plant/761358/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 860, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "merchant_IPP", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2028, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "ipp-merchant", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 90.0, "mmcfd_p50": 105.0, "mmcfd_p90": 117.0, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.425, "dedupe_group_id": "permian-vistra-diamondback-crusoe", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Goliad County / Monahans, TX", "data_center_location": "Permian Basin, TX", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "permitting", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 4, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 3, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 14, "capital_need_category": "ipp_construction_equity", "pe_archetype": "ipp_construction_equity", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Vistra" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "nrg-cedar-bayou-tef", "date": "2024-12-15", "op": "NRG Energy", "op_ticker": "NYSE: NRG", "cp": "ERCOT load + Menlo Equities + PowLan (DC developers)", "cp_type": "IPP", "name": "NRG Texas Brownfield Gas + DC Developer LOIs", "headline": "1.5 GW gas brownfield buildout in TEF process; LOIs with Menlo Equities and PowLan for 400 MW initial DC offtake (scaling to 6.5 GW).", "basin": "Permian / Gulf Coast delivered", "state": "TX", "location": "Cedar Bayou, T.H. Wharton sites, TX", "lat": 29.74, "lon": -94.97, "mw": 1500, "mmcfd": 187, "mmbtud": 192984, "type": "ipp", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Cedar Bayou 5 (689 MW CCGT) selected by PUCT for TEF advance Dec 2024; T.H. Wharton turbine on-site, COD summer 2026; 443 MW peaker under TEF evaluation", "term_years": null, "structure": "Three brownfield gas plants totaling 1.5 GW progressing through Texas Energy Fund. Cedar Bayou 5 (689 MW CCGT) and T.H. Wharton (turbine on-site) advancing. NRG also signed Project Development Agreement with GE Vernova and Kiewit (TIC subsidiary) to develop up to 5.4 GW of new gas-fired generation 2029-2032.", "structure_detail": "1.5 GW brownfield + 5.4 GW PDA = 6.9 GW pipeline. Initial 400 MW retail supply LOI with Menlo Equities and PowLan, scaling to 6.5 GW. Modeled current 1.5 GW \u00d7 ~80 MMcf/d/GW \u00d7 1.0 \u2248 120 MMcf/d.", "economics_note": "Texas Energy Fund grants/loans support the brownfield builds. Project Development Agreement with GE Vernova locks in turbine supply through 2032 and turnkey EPC via TIC.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at 85% capacity factor and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh (CCGT heat rate). 1500 MW \u00d7 24 \u00d7 6.3 \u00d7 0.85 / 1,032 \u2248 187 MMcf/d. v2.6.0 standardized AI-baseload modeled rows at 85% CF (was 50% CF in v2.5 and earlier \u2014 too conservative for sustained AI training/inference loads). Modeled from 1.5 GW current pipeline at full utilization (TEF dispatchable mandate).", "counterparty_note": "Counterparty is mix of ERCOT load + named DC developers (Menlo Equities, PowLan). LOI structures, not yet definitive contracts.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "date": "2025-02-27", "publisher": "NRG Energy / SEC 8-K", "title": "NRG Energy Q4 2024 8-K \u2014 Project Development Agreement with GE Vernova and Kiewit", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001013871/000101387125000004/ex991-q42024.htm", "source_class": "SEC", "proves": [ "counterparty", "turbine" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=SEC" }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "publisher": "Office of the Texas Governor (press release)", "title": "Governor Abbott Announces Texas Energy Fund Loan To 721 MW Natural Gas Facility In Southeast Texas", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-texas-energy-fund-loan-to-721-mw-natural-gas-facility-in-southeast-texas", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "date": "2025-09-29", "publisher": "Utility Dive", "title": "Texas backs NRG's 721-MW Cedar Bayou gas plant with low-interest loan", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/texas-puc-nrg-cedar-bayou-gas-plant-loan/761337/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 1500, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "merchant_IPP", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2028, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "ipp-merchant", "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "mmcfd_p10": 157.0, "mmcfd_p50": 183.1, "mmcfd_p90": 204.1, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "probability_weight": 0.425, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Cedar Bayou, T.H. Wharton sites, TX", "data_center_location": "Baytown, TX", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "permitting", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "power_to_compute_maturity": 4, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 3, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 14, "capital_need_category": "ipp_construction_equity", "pe_archetype": "ipp_construction_equity", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BB+", "moody": "Ba2", "tier": "speculative", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "NRG" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_speculative", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "vistra-cogentrix-positioning", "date": "2026-01-05", "op": "Vistra Corp", "op_ticker": "NYSE: VST", "cp": "DC operators (PJM + ERCOT positioning)", "cp_type": "IPP", "name": "Vistra \u00d7 Cogentrix Acquisition (5.5 GW)", "headline": "$4B acquisition of 10 gas plants, 5.5 GW, positioning for hyperscaler co-location.", "basin": "Multi-basin (PJM + ERCOT + ISO-NE)", "state": "Multi", "location": "PA, NJ, MD, NH, CT, RI, ME, TX", "lat": 39.95, "lon": -75.16, "mw": 5496, "mmcfd": 220, "mmbtud": 226800, "type": "ipp", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "Definitive agreement Jan 5, 2026; closing pending regulatory approval", "term_years": null, "structure": "Acquisition of Cogentrix Energy from Quantum Capital Group: 10 gas plants totaling 5,496 MW. Includes 881 MW Patriot CCGT (PA), 881 MW Hamilton-Liberty (PA), 740 MW Rock Springs CT (MD), 624 MW Newington (NH), 583 MW Altura cogen (TX), and others. Vistra publicly stated AI/DC demand as key thesis driver.", "structure_detail": "5.5 GW gas portfolio across PJM (3 CCGT + 2 CT), ISO-NE (4 CCGT), and ERCOT (1 cogen). Modeled at ~80 MMcf/d/GW \u00d7 0.50 baseline merchant utilization \u2248 220 MMcf/d. Higher under DC dedicated take.", "economics_note": "$4 billion acquisition. Combined with the Lotus 2.6 GW deal (Oct 2025, $1.9B), Vistra adds 8.1 GW of modern gas generation in 4 months \u2014 explicitly positioned for AI/DC offtake.", "volume_basis": "Modeled at merchant utilization across the portfolio; could rise materially under named DC offtake.", "counterparty_note": "Positioning row \u2014 no named DC counterparty yet. Vistra has stated discussions with major DC operators for co-location and PPAs across ERCOT and PJM.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "date": "2026-01-05", "publisher": "Vistra Corp / SEC 8-K", "title": "Vistra to Acquire Cogentrix Energy", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001692819/000119312526002589/d62722dex991.htm", "source_class": "SEC", "proves": [ "binding_status", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=SEC" }, { "date": "2026-01-15", "publisher": "Power Magazine", "title": "Vistra to Bolster Gas-Fired Fleet by 5.5 GW with $4B Cogentrix Acquisition", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.powermag.com/vistra-to-bolster-gas-fired-fleet-by-5-5-gw-with-4b-cogentrix-acquisition/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2026-01-05", "publisher": "DataCenterDynamics", "title": "Vistra acquires Cogentrix Energy in $4.7bn deal to serve surging data center demand across US", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/vistra-acquires-cogentrix-energy-in-47bn-deal-to-serve-surging-data-center-demand-across-us/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "financing", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "positioning_only", "mw_disclosed": 5496, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "CCGT", "ultimate_power_buyer": "merchant_IPP", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "volume_modeled_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": null, "FID_status": "pre-FID", "permit_status": "not-required", "operator_role": "ipp-merchant", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.1, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "PA, NJ, MD, NH, CT, RI, ME, TX", "data_center_location": "PA, NJ, MD, NH, CT, RI, ME, TX", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 1, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 5, "capital_need_category": "ipp_construction_equity", "pe_archetype": "ipp_construction_equity", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa3", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Vistra" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "crusoe-google-goodnight-watchlist", "date": "2026-03-15", "op": "Crusoe Energy Systems", "op_ticker": "Private", "cp": "Google (campus tenant; gas offtake unsigned)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler", "name": "Crusoe Goodnight Texas Campus \u2014 933 MW Gas Plant Permit", "headline": "933 MW gas plant permit filed for Crusoe's Goodnight TX campus; Google involved as customer but no final gas offtake agreement.", "basin": "Permian (West Texas)", "state": "TX", "location": "Goodnight, TX", "lat": 32.0, "lon": -101.18, "mw": 933, "mmcfd": 0, "mmbtud": 0, "mw_disclosed": 933, "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "watchlist_no_gas_contract", "type": "dc_developer", "status": "Watchlist", "status_detail": "Air permit filed for 933 MW gas plant. Google involved as campus customer per WIRED reporting. Crusoe has not signed a final gas offtake agreement with any specific gas operator.", "term_years": null, "structure": "Proposed 933 MW gas-fired plant at Crusoe's Goodnight, Texas data center campus. Air permit on file with TCEQ. Google has been identified by WIRED as the campus tenant. However, no operator-disclosed gas supply agreement exists, so this row is included as a watchlist entry rather than counted in the gross commitment total.", "structure_detail": "Watchlist row. Track for future inclusion if Crusoe or Google discloses a specific gas operator counterparty.", "economics_note": "Plant capex undisclosed. Google capex on the broader Goodnight campus undisclosed.", "volume_basis": "Watchlist row. No gas operator counterparty has been disclosed; therefore no MMcf/d figure is included in the gross commitment total. If modeled at 85% CF and 6.3 MMBtu/MWh CCGT heat rate, 933 MW would burn ~116 MMcf/d. Tracking for v2.6+ once disclosure improves.", "counterparty_note": "Google involvement reported by WIRED. No formal gas contract counterparty.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "date": "2026-03-15", "publisher": "WIRED", "title": "Inside Crusoe's Goodnight, Texas Data Center Campus and Google's Role", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.wired.com/story/crusoe-goodnight-data-center-google/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "date": "2026-01-15", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "Crusoe Energy Goodnight, Texas data center campus and Google involvement", "type": "secondary", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/crusoe-energy-goodnight-texas-google/", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "risk_flags": [ "no_gas_offtake_signed", "permitting_only" ], "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "unspecified", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "watchlist", "evidence_class": "E", "excluded_from_total": true, "excluded_reason": "No gas operator counterparty disclosed; row tracks campus but not counted.", "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "pre-FID", "permit_status": "pending", "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "volume_class": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "probability_weight": 0.05, "dedupe_group_id": null, "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Goodnight, TX", "data_center_location": "Permian Basin (Goodnight)", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "power_to_compute_maturity": 1, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Google / Alphabet", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 9, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AA+", "moody": "Aa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Google / Alphabet" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "NR", "moody": "NR", "tier": "private_unrated", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Crusoe" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "24/7 carbon-free matching pledge. Gas usage requires offsets or RNG. Geothermal/nuclear preferred; gas is bridge-only. Tightest contract termination rights.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "certarus-cng-hyperscaler-2026", "name": "Certarus CNG Mobile Supply (unnamed hyperscale DC)", "op": "Certarus / Superior Plus", "op_ticker": "TSX: SPB", "cp": "Unnamed hyperscale DC operator (via 'global leader in power generation solutions')", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (unnamed)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 16.5, "mmbtud": 17028, "mw": 135, "lon": -107.0, "lat": 41.0, "basin": "Multi-basin (mobile CNG sourcing)", "location": "United States (specific location not disclosed)", "state": null, "date": "2026-04-20", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "2.5-year supply agreement signed Apr 2026; expected COD mid-2027. CNG mobile compression delivery via ~200 transport trailers. Total contract revenue >$300M.", "term_years": 2.5, "headline": "Off-grid CNG mobile supply for ~135 MW prime power at unnamed US hyperscale data center; first new operator-archetype in tracker (mobile CNG vs pipeline).", "structure": "Certarus (Superior Plus subsidiary) supplies natural gas via mobile compressed-natural-gas (CNG) trailer fleet to support ~135 MW prime power generation at a US hyperscale data center site. Power generation provided by an unnamed 'global leader in power generation solutions' intermediary. CNG delivery model bypasses pipeline-takeaway constraints; Certarus uses high-capacity transport trailers and proprietary high-flow pressure-reduction systems for continuous prime-power fuel.", "structure_detail": "Multi-basin sourcing flexibility. ~200 CNG transport trailers required at full delivery. Total contract value >$300M over 2.5 years implies ~$120M/yr revenue / ~$0.04/MMBtu effective fee at modeled volume. Behind-the-meter prime power; no grid interconnection required.", "counterparty_note": "End-user hyperscaler not publicly disclosed. Power generation solutions provider also unnamed. Superior Plus listed on TSX (SPB); shares rose >10% on announcement.", "volume_basis": "Modeled from 135 MW disclosed: 135 MW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 75% CF / 1032 Btu/cf = ~16.5 MMcf/d. CNG-fed prime power; CF assumption appropriate for continuous baseload AI compute with mobile-supply redundancy.", "economics_note": "Total contract revenue >$300M over 2.5 years (Certarus disclosure). Implied ~$1.50/MMBtu effective service fee on modeled volume \u2014 consistent with mobile-CNG premium over pipeline gas.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Superior Plus", "title": "Superior Announces Significant Data Center Growth at Certarus", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260420935779/en/Superior-Announces-Significant-Data-Center-Growth-at-Certarus", "date": "2026-04-20", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw", "binding_status", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Orrick", "title": "Certarus Announces Significant Natural Gas Supply Transaction for Hyperscale Data Center", "url": "https://www.orrick.com/en/News/2026/04/Certarus-Announces-Significant-Natural-Gas-Supply-Transaction-for-Hyperscale-Data-Center", "date": "2026-04-20", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw", "binding_status" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "Certarus secures 135MW onsite natural gas data center deal in US", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/certarus-secures-135mw-onsite-natural-gas-data-center-deal-in-us/", "date": "2026-04-21", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "BNN Bloomberg", "title": "Superior Plus shares up more than 10 per cent after signing data centre deal", "url": "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2026/04/20/superior-plus-shares-up-more-than-10-per-cent-after-signing-data-centre-deal/", "date": "2026-04-20", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "binding_status", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 135, "basin_group": "Other", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "unnamed_counterparty", "unnamed_location" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "gas_origin_basin": "Multi-basin (mobile CNG sourcing)", "generation_location": "United States (specific location not disclosed)", "data_center_location": "United States (specific location not disclosed)", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "dedupe_group_id": null, "probability_weight": 0.55, "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "volume_subtype": "signed-modeled", "mmcfd_p10": 14.1, "mmcfd_p50": 16.5, "mmcfd_p90": 18.4, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "power_to_compute_maturity": 6, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 3, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 16, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "stratos-oleary-utah-phase1", "name": "Stratos / Wonder Valley AI Campus \u2014 O'Leary Digital (Phase 1)", "op": "Tallgrass Energy", "op_ticker": "TGE", "cp": "O'Leary Digital", "cp_type": "DC developer (positioning)", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 366.3, "mmbtud": 378021, "mw": 3000, "lon": -112.5, "lat": 41.5, "basin": "Rockies (Ruby Pipeline corridor, Wyoming origin)", "location": "Box Elder County, UT", "state": "UT", "date": "2026-04-24", "status": "Regulatory", "status_detail": "MIDA (Utah Military Installation Development Authority) approved Apr 24, 2026. Box Elder County commission DELAYED final vote Apr 27 amid local opposition. No signed gas supply contract; no hyperscaler tenant publicly named. Phase 1 sized at 3 GW; full buildout 9 GW.", "term_years": null, "headline": "MIDA-approved 9 GW off-grid hyperscale campus on 40,000+ acres; Phase 1 = 3 GW via Tallgrass Ruby Pipeline. Largest single-site AI campus approved to date in dataset, but conditional on county vote + hyperscaler signing + Tallgrass capacity commitment.", "structure": "O'Leary Digital (Kevin O'Leary's infrastructure arm) plans an off-grid hyperscale data center campus, dubbed 'Stratos' or 'Wonder Valley,' in Box Elder County, UT. Phase 1 (3 GW) and ultimate buildout (9 GW) of natural gas-fired generation produced on-site. West GenCo (newly-formed energy developer) handles permitting and state-level regulatory coordination. Gas supplied via direct connection to the Tallgrass-operated Ruby Pipeline (680-mile interstate from Wyoming to Oregon).", "structure_detail": "Ruby Pipeline carries Permian/Rockies gas to a 9 GW data-center campus developed with West GenCo / O'Leary Digital. 40,000 acres of private land plus 1,200 acres of military and state-owned property. MIDA approved development agreement Apr 24, 2026; Box Elder County commission postponed final vote Apr 27 under pressure from protesters and Utah leaders. MIDA agreed to slash standard energy use tax from 6% to 0.5% and rebate 80% of property tax. Implied 2,000 permanent jobs, $250M/yr state sales tax at full buildout. Phase 1 first-power target unclear; 9 GW full buildout is multi-decade.", "counterparty_note": "Hyperscaler tenant(s) not publicly named. Local opposition material (planning commission delay Apr 27). Project is conditional on county vote, Tallgrass capacity allocation, and hyperscaler signing.", "volume_basis": "Modeled from 3 GW Phase 1: 3,000 MW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 75% CF / 1032 Btu/cf = ~366.3 MMcf/d. Phase 1 only; full 9 GW buildout would imply ~1,247 MMcf/d but is multi-decade.", "economics_note": "Phase 1 capex undisclosed. Full 9 GW buildout implies multi-billion gas-fired generation capex plus pipeline-tap infrastructure on Ruby Pipeline.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Utah MIDA", "title": "MIDA Approves Kevin O'Leary's 9GW Utah Data Center Project", "url": "https://www.asatunews.co.id/en/utah-approves-leary-data-center", "date": "2026-04-24", "source_class": "PUC", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw", "permit", "binding_status" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=PUC" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Tom's Hardware", "title": "Kevin O'Leary's 9 Gigawatt Utah data center campus approved", "url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/kevin-o-learys-9-gw-utah-data-center-campus-approved", "date": "2026-04-25", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Salt Lake Tribune", "title": "Box Elder County delays vote on hyperscale data center, under pressure from protesters and Utah leaders", "url": "https://www.sltrib.com/news/2026/04/27/hyperscale-data-center-project/", "date": "2026-04-27", "source_class": "NEWS", "proves": [ "binding_status", "permit" ] }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "Utah Planning Commission delays decision on Kevin O'Leary-backed data center project", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/utah-planning-commission-delays-decision-on-kevin-oleary-backed-data-center-project/", "date": "2026-04-27", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "binding_status" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Converge Digest", "title": "Utah Approves 9 GW Wonder Valley AI Campus With Off-Grid Power Model", "url": "https://convergedigest.com/utah-approves-9-gw-wonder-valley-ai-campus-with-off-grid-power-model/", "date": "2026-04-24", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 3000, "basin_group": "Other", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "TBD", "contract_binding_status": "tariff_or_regulatory_filing", "evidence_class": "D", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "non_definitive_status", "unnamed_counterparty", "local_opposition", "conditional_on_county_vote" ], "first_power_year": 2029, "FID_status": "agreement_in_principle", "permit_status": "MIDA_approved_county_pending", "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "gas_origin_basin": "Rockies (Wyoming via Ruby Pipeline)", "generation_location": "Box Elder County, UT", "data_center_location": "Box Elder County, UT (Wonder Valley)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "dedupe_group_id": null, "probability_weight": 0.2, "volume_class": "positioning", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "mmcfd_p10": 314.0, "mmcfd_p50": 366.3, "mmcfd_p90": 408.1, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 60% CF \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (all \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2029+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 2, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 9, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer", "match_quality": "token" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "partners": [ "West GenCo (Stratos)" ] }, { "id": "hope-gas-nscale-monarch-wv-pipeline", "name": "Hope Gas Prosperity Pipeline \u2014 Nscale Monarch Compute Campus (WV)", "op": "Hope Gas", "op_ticker": "private (Ullico-owned)", "cp": "Nscale Monarch Compute Campus", "cp_type": "DC developer", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 400, "mmbtud": 412800, "mw": null, "lon": -82.0, "lat": 38.85, "basin": "Appalachia (Marcellus / Utica)", "location": "Mason County, WV", "state": "WV", "date": "2026-03-15", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Hope Gas announced 30-mile, 24-inch, $250M Prosperity Pipeline expansion in March 2026. Construction commenced April 2026; target completion year-end 2026. Anchor-shipper LOIs for ~400,000 Dth/d (~400 MMcf/d) firm supply secured from Antero Resources, EQT Corp., and at least one other Marcellus/Utica E&P. Pipeline serves Nscale Monarch Compute Campus + new industry/residential load in northern Mason County.", "term_years": null, "headline": "$250M, 30-mile, 24-inch Hope Gas pipeline expansion to anchor Nscale Monarch (8 GW campus, Phase 1 = 2 GW). 400 MMcf/d firm-supply LOIs secured from Antero, EQT, and a third Appalachian E&P.", "structure": "Hope Gas (West Virginia regulated gas utility, owned by Ullico) is constructing a 30-mile, 24-inch natural gas pipeline (the Prosperity Pipeline) to deliver Marcellus/Utica gas to the Nscale Monarch Compute Campus in northern Mason County, WV. The pipeline serves as the dedicated takeaway connecting upstream producer LOIs (Antero, EQT, +1 other) to the 2,250-acre Nscale data center campus, planned for up to 8 GW of compute capacity (Phase 1 = 2 GW).", "structure_detail": "Construction began April 2026; target in-service end of 2026. Total firm-supply LOIs of approximately 400,000 Dth/d (~400 MMcf/d at standard 1,032 Btu/cf \u2014 note: industry shorthand often equates Dth/d with Mcf/d). Hope Gas pipeline is the transport piece; producer-side gas supply contracts with Antero, EQT, and the third E&P are not yet finalized at definitive level (LOI stage).", "counterparty_note": "Nscale acquired the Monarch Compute Campus footprint and signed Microsoft for 1.35 GW of compute (per DCD reporting). Microsoft is the named hyperscaler tenant for the Phase 1 buildout. Ullico (Hope Gas owner) is a labor-affiliated insurance/investment cooperative.", "volume_basis": "Operator-disclosed firm gas takeaway: 400,000 Dth/d LOI-secured per Hope Gas + Marcellus Drilling News coverage. Industry convention treats Dth/d \u2248 Mcf/d at standard heat content; full-Btu thermal conversion at 1,032 Btu/cf would give ~388 MMcf/d.", "economics_note": "$250M pipeline capex disclosed by Hope Gas. Implied transport fee at $0.30/Mcf \u00d7 400 MMcf/d \u00d7 365 days = ~$44M/yr revenue, ~5.7-year payback at full utilization.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "WV Office of the Governor (Patrick Morrisey)", "title": "Governor Morrisey Announces $250 Million Hope Gas Pipeline Investment", "url": "https://governor.wv.gov/article/governor-morrisey-announces-250-million-hope-gas-pipeline-investment", "date": "2026-03-15", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status", "financing", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "WV Division of Economic Development", "title": "Hope Gas Announces $250 Million Pipeline Investment", "url": "https://westvirginia.gov/hope-gas-announces-250-million-pipeline-investment-to-strengthen-energy-infrastructure-in-west-virginia/", "date": "2026-03-15", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "financing", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Marcellus Drilling News", "title": "Hope Gas Announces 30-Mile M-U Pipeline to WV Data Center Campus", "url": "https://marcellusdrilling.com/2026/03/hope-gas-announces-30-mile-m-u-pipeline-to-wv-data-center-campus/", "date": "2026-03-16", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "volume", "pipeline_route", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "RBN Energy", "title": "(They've Got) The Power \u2013 Nscale's Monarch Data Center Aims to Optimize the Btu-to-GPU Value Chain", "url": "https://rbnenergy.com/daily-posts/blog/nscales-monarch-data-center-aims-optimize-btu-gpu-value-chain", "date": "2026-04-10", "source_class": "ANALYSIS", "proves": [ "volume", "counterparty", "mw", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=ANALYSIS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "title": "Nscale acquires 8GW Monarch Compute Campus, Microsoft signs on for 1.35GW of compute", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/nscale-acquires-8gw-monarch-compute-campus-microsoft-signs-on-for-135gw-of-compute/", "date": "2026-04-08", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "mw", "end_user" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "WV Public Broadcasting", "title": "Hope Gas Announces $250M Pipeline Expansion", "url": "https://wvpublic.org/story/energy-environment/hope-gas-announces-250m-pipeline-expansion/", "date": "2026-03-15", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "financing", "pipeline_route" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Latitude Media", "title": "Microsoft is embracing off-grid gas for West Virginia data centers", "url": "https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/microsoft-is-embracing-off-grid-gas-for-west-virginia-data-centers/", "date": "2026-04-12", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "counterparty", "end_user", "binding_status" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": true, "volume_derivation": "disclosed", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "construction_underway", "operator_role": "pipeline-capacity", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Mason County, WV", "data_center_location": "Mason County, WV (Nscale Monarch Compute Campus)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "dedupe_group_id": "appalachia-monarch-marcellus", "probability_weight": 0.65, "volume_class": "transport-capacity", "volume_subtype": "transport", "heat_rate_assumption": null, "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Microsoft", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 5, "deployability_score": 4, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 5, "investability_total": 20, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "AAA", "moody": "Aaa", "tier": "highest_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Microsoft" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "operator_credit": { "sp": "NR", "moody": "NR", "tier": "private_pe_backed", "verified": true, "note": "Owned by Hearthstone Utilities (Ullico-backed); private", "name_resolved": "Hope Gas" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipe redirects to industrial load, LNG export feedgas, or utility generation. Strong fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "hyperscaler_procurement_intent": "Prefers PPA + nuclear/renewable matching; gas tolerated for backup/peaking. Public Climate Pledge constrains gas-tied long-term commitments. Will accept fuel-cell or low-emissions gas if narrative survives ESG review.", "hyperscaler_procurement_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "n_a_pipe_only", "equipment_slot_confidence": "verified" }, { "id": "pacifico-gw-ranch-phase1", "name": "GW Ranch \u2014 Pacifico Energy (Phase 1, Pecos County)", "op": "Pacifico Energy", "op_ticker": "private", "cp": "TBD hyperscaler / DC tenant", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (TBD)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 122.1, "mmbtud": 126007, "mw": 1000, "lon": -103.5, "lat": 31.0, "basin": "Permian (Waha-adjacent)", "location": "Pecos County, TX", "state": "TX", "date": "2026-01-26", "status": "Regulatory", "status_detail": "TCEQ approved 7.65 GW gas-fired generation permit for full GW Ranch buildout (April 2026). Phase 1 = 1 GW, first power H1 2027. Direct gas pipeline to Waha hub. Hyperscaler tenant TBD; ramp to 7.65 GW would imply 1\u20132 Bcf/d gas burn at full buildout per Texas Tribune expert estimates.", "term_years": null, "headline": "TCEQ-permitted 7.65 GW Permian campus, Phase 1 = 1 GW; direct Waha pipeline. Hyperscaler tenant not yet named; full-buildout would be the largest behind-the-meter Permian gas-fired campus in the dataset.", "structure": "Pacifico Energy received TCEQ Clean Air Permit approval for 7.65 GW of natural-gas-fired generation at GW Ranch in Pecos County, TX, plus storage and solar. Purpose-built behind-the-meter for hyperscale AI / data-center load. Direct natural gas pipeline connection to the Waha hub. Phase 1 sized at 1 GW with first-power target H1 2027.", "structure_detail": "Pacifico Energy is a private developer. Permit covers full 7.65 GW; phasing and hyperscaler tenant not publicly disclosed. Texas Tribune cites expert estimates of 1\u20132 Bcf/d gas burn at full 7.65 GW utilization. Phase 1 modeled here at 1 GW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 75% CF / 1032 \u2248 152 MMcf/d.", "counterparty_note": "No hyperscaler tenant publicly disclosed at time of permit announcement.", "volume_basis": "Modeled from Phase 1 1,000 MW disclosed: 1,000 MW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 \u00d7 75% / 1032 = ~122.1 MMcf/d. Full 7.65 GW buildout would imply ~1.16 Bcf/d at same assumptions, consistent with the Texas Tribune 1\u20132 Bcf/d expert range.", "economics_note": "Phase 1 capex undisclosed. Direct Waha pipeline tap implies low transport cost; basis-advantaged supply.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Pacifico Energy", "title": "Pacifico Energy Secures 7.65 GW Power Generation Permit for GW Ranch Project", "url": "https://www.pacificoenergy.com/post/pacifico-energy-secures-7-65-gw-power-generation-permit-for-gw-ranch-project", "date": "2026-04-15", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "permit", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "TCEQ", "title": "GW Ranch Clean Air Permit", "url": "https://www.tceq.texas.gov/permitting/air", "date": "2026-04-15", "source_class": "AIR_PERMIT", "proves": [ "mw", "permit" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=AIR_PERMIT" }, { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Texas Tribune", "title": "GW Ranch and Permian gas-fired AI campuses", "url": "https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/02/texas-permian-basin-power-plant-project-data-centers/", "date": "2026-02-02", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "volume", "mw", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 1000, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "tariff_or_regulatory_filing", "evidence_class": "C", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "non_definitive_status", "unnamed_counterparty" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "permit_obtained", "permit_status": "TCEQ_approved", "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Pecos County, TX", "data_center_location": "Pecos County, TX (GW Ranch campus)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "dedupe_group_id": null, "probability_weight": 0.3, "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "mmcfd_p10": 104.7, "mmcfd_p50": 122.1, "mmcfd_p90": 136.0, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 \u00d7 60% \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (\u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "mw_full_build_permitted": 7650, "mmcfd_full_build_modeled": 933, "volume_basis_note": "Counts only Phase 1 (1 GW). Full TCEQ permit covers 7.65 GW gas-fired generation + storage + solar, plus a planned 1 Bcf/d direct Waha pipeline. Full-build modeled potential ~933 MMcf/d.", "date_correction_note": "Date corrected from 2026-04-15 to 2026-01-26 per Pacifico's public announcement.", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 2, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 8, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer", "match_quality": "token" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "key_public_statements": [ { "speaker": "Nate Franklin", "role": "CEO, Pacifico Energy Group", "date": "2026-01-26", "occasion": "Pacifico Energy 7.65 GW permit announcement", "quote": "We\u2019re really excited to reach this precedent-setting milestone at GW Ranch.", "source_url": "https://www.pacificoenergy.com/post/pacifico-energy-secures-7-65-gw-power-generation-permit-for-gw-ranch-project", "source_publisher": "Pacifico Energy", "confidence": "verbatim_verified", "note": "Quote captured from page metadata; full statement extends in press release body." } ], "key_public_statements_confidence": "verbatim_verified" }, { "id": "softbank-aep-portsmouth-ohio", "name": "SoftBank\u2013AEP Ohio Portsmouth DOE Site", "op": "AEP Ohio (American Electric Power)", "op_ticker": "NYSE: AEP", "cp": "SoftBank / SB Energy", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (TBD)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 0, "mmbtud": 0, "mw": 9200, "lon": -82.99, "lat": 38.73, "basin": "Appalachia (Marcellus / Utica)", "location": "Portsmouth, OH (DOE federal site)", "state": "OH", "date": "2026-03-20", "status": "Watchlist", "status_detail": "DOE-announced March 2026 public-private project on federal land. SoftBank to develop 10 GW AI data center; AEP Ohio to build 9.2 GW gas-fired generation plus major transmission. Gas supplier, offtake structure, and phasing not yet disclosed. Among the largest disclosed DC-paired gas projects.", "term_years": null, "headline": "DOE-backed SoftBank/AEP 10 GW DC + 9.2 GW gas generation on federal land in Portsmouth, OH. Third-largest gas project in the dataset behind Stratos and Project Matador full-build.", "structure": "U.S. Department of Energy announced public-private agreement: SoftBank to develop 10 GW AI data center campus on federal land in Portsmouth, Ohio, with AEP Ohio building 9.2 GW of natural-gas-fired generation plus major transmission infrastructure to support the load. Gas sourcing TBD; structure suggests Marcellus-adjacent supply via existing or expanded Appalachian midstream.", "structure_detail": "Federal-land siting is novel. Gas supplier not named. AEP Ohio is the regulated utility; rate-base treatment pending. Project is multi-year; specific COD targets and phasing not disclosed.", "counterparty_note": "SoftBank / SB Energy named as data-center developer counterparty; specific hyperscaler tenants and end-users TBD.", "volume_basis": "Modeled from 9,200 MW disclosed gas capacity: 9,200 MW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 \u00d7 75% / 1032 \u2248 1123.3 MMcf/d at P50.", "economics_note": "Capex undisclosed; multi-billion-dollar transmission + generation buildout implied.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Reuters", "title": "SoftBank and AEP plan massive Ohio gas-fired AI data center campus", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/japans-softbank-aep-strike-public-private-deal-ohio-natural-gas-power-2026-03-20/", "date": "2026-03-20", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "financing" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=TRADE_PRESS" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 9200, "basin_group": "Appalachia", "behind_the_meter": false, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "watchlist", "evidence_class": "D", "excluded_from_total": true, "risk_flags": [ "non_definitive_status", "unnamed_gas_supplier", "unnamed_offtake_structure" ], "first_power_year": 2029, "FID_status": "agreement_in_principle", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "utility-anchored", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "gas_origin_basin": "Appalachia", "generation_location": "Portsmouth, OH", "data_center_location": "Portsmouth, OH (federal land)", "cost_recovery": "rate-base-with-hyperscaler", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "dedupe_group_id": null, "probability_weight": 0.25, "volume_class": "modeled-burn", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "mmcfd_p10": 0, "mmcfd_p50": 0, "mmcfd_p90": 0, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 \u00d7 60% \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (\u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "excluded_reason": "Watchlist: gas supplier and offtake structure not yet disclosed; 9.2 GW potential is documented but excluded from gross until at least one definitive parameter (supplier, anchor offtake, or phasing) is publicly named.", "mmcfd_potential_modeled": 1120, "mmcfd_potential_basis": "9.2 GW disclosed gas generation \u00d7 0.122 MMcf/d per MW (hr=7.0, cf=0.75, 1,032 Btu/cf) = ~1,120 MMcf/d modeled potential. Excluded from gross until gas supplier/offtake disclosed; surfaced as potential bucket.", "watchlist_bucket": "utility_power_campus_no_gas_supplier", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2029+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 8, "capital_need_category": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype": "utility_rate_base", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "A-", "moody": "Baa1", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "AEP" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 73, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 106, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 156, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Appalachia basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Utility recovers via rate base. Customer / public-stakeholder split shifts but asset retains value.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "bw-base-electron-applied-digital", "name": "Base Electron $2.4B Gas Generation \u2014 Applied Digital AI Factories", "op": "Base Electron / Babcock & Wilcox", "op_ticker": "NYSE: BW", "cp": "Applied Digital", "cp_type": "DC developer", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 146.5, "mmbtud": 151188, "mw": 1200, "lon": -100.0, "lat": 47.0, "basin": "Midwest (Bakken-adjacent / North Dakota corridor)", "location": "Applied Digital AI Factory campus (US site)", "state": "ND", "date": "2026-03-04", "status": "Signed", "status_detail": "Babcock & Wilcox received Full Notice to Proceed on $2.4 billion design-build for 1.2 GW of natural-gas-fired generation supporting Base Electron / Applied Digital AI Factory campus. Option for an additional 1.2 GW. Behind-the-meter dedicated power.", "term_years": null, "headline": "$2.4B B&W full NTP for 1.2 GW dedicated gas generation at Applied Digital AI Factory campus, with option to double to 2.4 GW.", "structure": "Babcock & Wilcox (NYSE: BW) received Full Notice to Proceed on a $2.4 billion design-build power generation project for Base Electron, providing 1.2 GW of natural-gas-fired generation to supply Applied Digital AI Factory campuses. Behind-the-meter dedicated supply structure. Option for an additional 1.2 GW phase.", "structure_detail": "B&W is the EPC; Base Electron is the project sponsor; Applied Digital is the AI-factory tenant. Gas supplier and basin-source not yet publicly disclosed; site location not specified beyond Applied Digital campus geography.", "counterparty_note": "Applied Digital is a publicly-traded AI-infrastructure provider. Base Electron is a private development entity.", "volume_basis": "Modeled from 1,200 MW disclosed: 1,200 MW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 \u00d7 75% / 1032 \u2248 146.5 MMcf/d at P50.", "economics_note": "$2.4B EPC capex confirmed via B&W full NTP press release.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Babcock & Wilcox", "title": "Babcock & Wilcox Receives Full Notice to Proceed on $2.4 Billion Power Generation Project for Base Electron to Supply Power to Applied Digital AI Factory Campuses", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260304559255/en/Babcock-Wilcox-Receives-Full-Notice-to-Proceed-on-%242.4-Billion-Power-Generation-Project-for-Base-Electron-to-Supply-Power-to-Applied-Digital-AI-Factory-Campuses", "date": "2026-03-04", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "binding_status", "financing", "counterparty" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 1200, "basin_group": "Other", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "definitive", "evidence_class": "B", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "unnamed_gas_supplier", "unnamed_location" ], "first_power_year": 2028, "FID_status": "FID-taken", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "strict", "gas_origin_basin": "Other", "generation_location": "Applied Digital campus (US)", "data_center_location": "Applied Digital AI Factory campus", "cost_recovery": "direct-hyperscaler-ppa", "critical_path_constraint": "permitting", "dedupe_group_id": null, "probability_weight": 0.65, "volume_class": "signed-gas-supply", "volume_subtype": "signed-modeled", "mmcfd_p10": 125.6, "mmcfd_p50": 146.5, "mmcfd_p90": 163.3, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 \u00d7 60% \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (\u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "power_to_compute_maturity": 5, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028", "ultimate_ai_buyer": "Applied Digital", "scarcity_score": 3, "bankability_score": 4, "deployability_score": 3, "moat_score": 4, "exit_score": 3, "investability_total": 17, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "counterparty_credit": { "sp": "NR", "moody": "NR", "tier": "speculative_public", "verified": true, "note": "Public (NASDAQ:APLD); high-yield debt structure post-$7.5B hyperscaler lease", "name_resolved": "Applied Digital" }, "counterparty_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "unknown", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "low_confidence", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "electrigen-1.8gw-tx-btm", "name": "ElectriGen 1.8 GW Behind-the-Meter Texas Project", "op": "ElectriGen", "op_ticker": "private", "cp": "Unnamed AI/DC tenant (1.5 GW IT load)", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (TBD)", "type": "hyperscaler", "mmcfd": 219.8, "mmbtud": 226833, "mw": 1800, "lon": -97.7, "lat": 31.5, "basin": "Permian or Eagle Ford (TBD)", "location": "Texas (specific site not disclosed)", "state": "TX", "date": "2026-04-27", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "Non-binding LOI for 1.8 GW of behind-the-meter natural-gas generation serving 1.5 GW IT load. Targeted 2028 first power, subject to FEED engineering and definitive agreements. Watchlist-quality.", "term_years": null, "headline": "1.8 GW Texas BTM LOI; 1.5 GW IT load; 2028 target. Watchlist-stage, FEED pending.", "structure": "ElectriGen announced a non-binding letter of intent for 1.8 GW of behind-the-meter natural-gas-fired generation to serve a 1.5 GW IT load at a Texas data center site. First power targeted for 2028; FEED engineering and definitive offtake agreements still pending.", "structure_detail": "Site location not publicly disclosed. Gas supplier not yet named. ElectriGen is a private developer.", "counterparty_note": "AI/DC tenant not named publicly. LOI structure means project is exposed to negotiation, FEED outcomes, and capital availability.", "volume_basis": "Modeled from 1,800 MW disclosed nameplate (note: 1.5 GW IT load is the binding metric): 1,800 MW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 \u00d7 75% / 1032 \u2248 219.8 MMcf/d at P50.", "economics_note": "Capex not disclosed.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "ElectriGen", "title": "ElectriGen Announces 1.8 GW Behind-the-Meter Power Development in Texas to Support AI Data Center Digital Infrastructure", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260427358399/en/ElectriGen-Announces-1.8-GW-Behind-the-Meter-Power-Development-in-Texas-to-Support-AI-Data-Center-Digital-Infrastructure", "date": "2026-04-27", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "mw", "counterparty", "binding_status" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 1800, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "D", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "non_definitive_status", "unnamed_counterparty", "FEED_pending" ], "first_power_year": 2028, "FID_status": "LOI", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Texas (site TBD)", "data_center_location": "Texas (TBD)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "dedupe_group_id": null, "probability_weight": 0.15, "volume_class": "positioning", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "mmcfd_p10": 188.4, "mmcfd_p50": 219.8, "mmcfd_p90": 244.9, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity (LOI-stage; FEED would refine technology choice).", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028+", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 7, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "ecp-kkr-calpine-thad-hill-tx", "name": "ECP/KKR Hyperscale Campus \u2014 Calpine Thad Hill Energy Center, TX", "op": "Calpine Corporation", "op_ticker": "\u2014", "cp": "ECP / KKR Hyperscale Campus", "cp_type": "DC developer (private equity)", "type": "dc_developer", "mmcfd": 244.2, "mmbtud": 252014, "mw": 2000, "lon": -96.4, "lat": 30.6, "basin": "Eagle Ford / Permian (Texas)", "location": "Texas (Thad Hill Energy Center adjacent)", "state": "TX", "date": "2025-07-30", "status": "Positioning", "status_detail": "ECP and KKR announced co-development of a hyperscale data center campus adjacent to Calpine's Thad Hill Energy Center, with Calpine securing a long-term dedicated power contract. Campus MW not publicly disclosed; estimated based on adjacent Calpine plant scale.", "term_years": null, "headline": "ECP+KKR hyperscale campus with long-term Calpine dedicated power contract; campus size not publicly disclosed (estimated ~2 GW for modeling).", "structure": "Energy Capital Partners (ECP) and KKR are co-developing a hyperscale data center campus in Texas, sited adjacent to Calpine's Thad Hill Energy Center. Calpine has secured a long-term dedicated power contract for the campus. Specific MW disclosure pending.", "structure_detail": "Calpine's Thad Hill Energy Center is an existing Texas gas-fired power plant. Campus size and gas-burn allocation between existing and new generation not publicly disclosed.", "counterparty_note": "ECP and KKR are private-equity sponsors; specific hyperscaler tenants not publicly disclosed.", "volume_basis": "Estimated from ~2,000 MW assumed campus size (NOT operator-disclosed; placeholder until MW disclosed). Modeled at 244.2 MMcf/d P50.", "economics_note": "Capex undisclosed.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "type": "secondary", "publisher": "Energy Capital Partners", "title": "Energy Capital Partners and KKR Announce Development of Hyperscale Data Center Campus in Texas", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250730057911/en/Energy-Capital-Partners-and-KKR-Announce-Development-of-Hyperscale-Data-Center-Campus-in-Texas", "date": "2025-07-30", "source_class": "COMPANY_PR", "proves": [ "counterparty", "binding_status" ], "type_correction_note": "Type field derived from source_class=COMPANY_PR" } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": null, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "evidence_class": "D", "excluded_from_total": false, "risk_flags": [ "non_definitive_status", "unnamed_counterparty", "mw_estimated_not_disclosed" ], "first_power_year": 2028, "FID_status": "agreement_in_principle", "permit_status": "unknown", "operator_role": "ipp-merchant", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "Texas (Thad Hill area)", "data_center_location": "Texas (ECP/KKR campus)", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "tenant-commitment", "dedupe_group_id": null, "probability_weight": 0.2, "volume_class": "positioning", "volume_subtype": "positioning", "mmcfd_p10": 209.3, "mmcfd_p50": 244.2, "mmcfd_p90": 272.1, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity; MW estimated, not disclosed \u2014 flagged in risk_flags.", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028+", "scarcity_score": 1, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 6, "capital_need_category": "ipp_construction_equity", "pe_archetype": "ipp_construction_equity", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BB-", "moody": "Ba2", "tier": "speculative", "verified": true, "note": "Pre-Constellation merger close", "name_resolved": "Calpine" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 1, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_speculative", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence" }, { "id": "oleary-stratos-utah-fullbuild", "date": "2026-04-15", "op": "Stratos / O\u2019Leary Digital", "cp": "TBD (Phase 1 onsite gas; full-build 9 GW)", "mmcfd": 0, "mw": 9000, "mw_phase1": 3000, "mmcfd_phase1_modeled": 379, "mmcfd_full_build_modeled": 1138, "basin": "Rockies (Ruby Pipeline corridor, Wyoming origin)", "basin_group": "Other", "volume_class": "positioning", "volume_subtype": "permitted_potential_phase_2plus", "volume_basis": "Phase 1 ~3 GW onsite gas \u2192 ~379 MMcf/d modeled; full permitted buildout up to 9 GW \u2192 ~1,138 MMcf/d. Tracked under Phase 1 row separately; this is the full-build potential bucket.", "volume_basis_note": "Counts ZERO in gross \u2014 placeholder to surface full-build potential. Phase 1 row is separately counted at 379 MMcf/d.", "volume_derivation": "modeled", "evidence_class": "B", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "regulatory-approval", "first_power_year": 2028, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028+", "data_center_location": "Beaver County, Utah", "data_center_state": "UT", "origin_lat": 38.45, "origin_lon": -113.42, "generation_lat": 38.45, "generation_lon": -113.42, "data_center_lat": 38.45, "data_center_lon": -113.42, "origin_state": "WY", "generation_state": "UT", "type": "other", "status": "Watchlist", "status_detail": "Beaver County planning commission delayed approval as of Apr 2026.", "term_years": null, "probability_weight": 0.3, "mmcfd_p10": 0, "mmcfd_p50": 0, "mmcfd_p90": 0, "excluded_from_total": true, "excluded_reason": "Phase 1 counted separately; this is full-build potential placeholder. No contracted gas supplier disclosed for Phase 2+.", "watchlist_bucket": "permitted_potential_full_build", "risk_flags": [ "permit_litigation", "tenant_unconfirmed" ], "ultimate_ai_buyer": null, "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "sources": [ { "title": "Utah Planning Commission delays decision on Kevin O\u2019Leary-backed data center project", "publisher": "Data Center Dynamics", "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/utah-planning-commission-delays-decision-on-kevin-oleary-backed-data-center-project/", "date": "2026-03-15", "type": "secondary", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "9_GW_full_build", "permit_pending" ] } ], "quotes": [], "headline": "O\u2019Leary Digital / Stratos targeting 9 GW Utah campus full-build behind Phase 1.", "gas_origin_basin": "Rockies", "generation_location": "Beaver County, Utah", "lat": 38.45, "lon": -113.42, "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 8, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "NR", "moody": "NR", "tier": "speculative_public", "verified": true, "note": "Public (NASDAQ:APLD); high-yield debt structure post-$7.5B hyperscaler lease", "name_resolved": "Applied Digital", "match_quality": "token" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "No fallback \u2014 asset is announcement-only. Sunk cost on permits + land.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 5, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "state_regulatory_regime": { "permit_speed": 3, "ai_political": 4, "queue_health": 3, "community_floor": 4, "composite": 3.5, "note": "Beaver County planning commission delayed Stratos in Apr 2026 \u2014 community floor materializing. UDEQ permits 12-15 mo.", "authority": "UDEQ + PSC-UT + WECC" }, "state_regulatory_state": { "permit_speed": 3, "ai_political": 4, "queue_health": 3, "community_floor": 4, "composite": 3.5, "note": "Beaver County planning commission delayed Stratos in Apr 2026 \u2014 community floor materializing. UDEQ permits 12-15 mo.", "authority": "UDEQ + PSC-UT + WECC" }, "state_regulatory_state_code": "UT" }, { "id": "nextera-japan-gas-projects-watchlist", "date": "2026-04-23", "op": "NextEra Energy", "cp": "Japan-backed JV (TBD); PA + TX gas-fired DC sites", "mmcfd": 0, "mw": 10000, "mmcfd_potential_modeled": 1264, "basin": "Multi-basin (PA + TX)", "basin_group": "Other", "volume_class": "positioning", "volume_basis": "NextEra CFO disclosed expectation of agreements within 3 months on large U.S. gas-fired data-center projects in PA and TX, potentially ~10 GW combined. At hr=7.0/cf=0.75: 1,264 MMcf/d modeled potential.", "volume_basis_note": "Pre-announcement; no contracts named. Watchlist only.", "volume_derivation": "modeled", "evidence_class": "C", "contract_binding_status": "positioning", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "operator_role": "integrated-supply", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "offtake", "first_power_year": 2028, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2028+", "data_center_location": "PA + TX (TBD)", "data_center_state": "TBD", "origin_lat": 40.5, "origin_lon": -77.5, "generation_lat": 40.5, "generation_lon": -77.5, "data_center_lat": 40.5, "data_center_lon": -77.5, "origin_state": "PA", "generation_state": "PA", "type": "other", "status": "Watchlist", "status_detail": "NextEra Q1 2026 earnings call: agreements expected within 3 months for PA + TX gas-fired DC projects, ~10 GW combined.", "term_years": null, "probability_weight": 0.45, "mmcfd_p10": 0, "mmcfd_p50": 0, "mmcfd_p90": 0, "excluded_from_total": true, "excluded_reason": "Pre-disclosure; no signed gas contract or named buyer.", "watchlist_bucket": "pre_announcement_pipeline", "risk_flags": [ "tenant_unconfirmed" ], "ultimate_ai_buyer": null, "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "sources": [ { "title": "NextEra Energy beats first-quarter profit estimates", "publisher": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nextera-energy-beats-first-quarter-profit-estimates-2026-04-23/", "date": "2026-04-23", "type": "secondary", "source_class": "TRADE_PRESS", "proves": [ "10_GW_combined_pipeline", "pre_agreement_stage" ] } ], "quotes": [], "headline": "NextEra disclosed expectation of agreements within 3 months on ~10 GW of PA + TX gas-fired data-center projects.", "gas_origin_basin": "Other", "generation_location": "PA + TX (TBD)", "lat": 40.5, "lon": -77.5, "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 1, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 2, "exit_score": 2, "investability_total": 9, "capital_need_category": "midstream_jv_attractive", "pe_archetype": "midstream_brownfield", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "A", "moody": "A2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "note": "Issuer rating; subsidiaries differ", "name_resolved": "NextEra" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 81, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 112, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 161, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Other basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Pipeline / lateral retains value for industrial / LNG / utility customers. Diversified fallback.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 2, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "public_investment_grade", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "state_regulatory_regime": { "permit_speed": 4, "ai_political": 4, "queue_health": 3, "community_floor": 3, "composite": 3.5, "note": "DEP-PA permits in 12-18 mo. PJM queue heavy. Bipartisan support for Marcellus / data center pairing. Community engagement standard.", "authority": "DEP-PA + PUC-PA + PJM" }, "state_regulatory_state": { "permit_speed": 4, "ai_political": 4, "queue_health": 3, "community_floor": 3, "composite": 3.5, "note": "DEP-PA permits in 12-18 mo. PJM queue heavy. Bipartisan support for Marcellus / data center pairing. Community engagement standard.", "authority": "DEP-PA + PUC-PA + PJM" }, "state_regulatory_state_code": "PA" }, { "id": "solaris-600mw-watchlist", "name": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure \u2014 >600 MW behind-the-meter expansion (watchlist)", "op": "Pacifico Energy", "op_ticker": "private", "cp": "TBD hyperscaler / DC tenant", "cp_type": "Hyperscaler (TBD)", "type": "ipp", "mmcfd": 0, "mmbtud": 126007, "mw": 600, "lon": -102.08, "lat": 31.95, "basin": "Permian (Waha-adjacent)", "location": "Pecos County, TX", "state": "TX", "date": "2026-04-28", "status": "Watchlist", "status_detail": "TCEQ approved 7.65 GW gas-fired generation permit for full GW Ranch buildout (April 2026). Phase 1 = 1 GW, first power H1 2027. Direct gas pipeline to Waha hub. Hyperscaler tenant TBD; ramp to 7.65 GW would imply 1\u20132 Bcf/d gas burn at full buildout per Texas Tribune expert estimates.", "term_years": null, "headline": "Solaris flags >600 MW behind-the-meter capacity in Q1 2026 results \u2014 fleet utilization commentary", "structure": "Pacifico Energy received TCEQ Clean Air Permit approval for 7.65 GW of natural-gas-fired generation at GW Ranch in Pecos County, TX, plus storage and solar. Purpose-built behind-the-meter for hyperscale AI / data-center load. Direct natural gas pipeline connection to the Waha hub. Phase 1 sized at 1 GW with first-power target H1 2027.", "structure_detail": "Pacifico Energy is a private developer. Permit covers full 7.65 GW; phasing and hyperscaler tenant not publicly disclosed. Texas Tribune cites expert estimates of 1\u20132 Bcf/d gas burn at full 7.65 GW utilization. Phase 1 modeled here at 1 GW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 75% CF / 1032 \u2248 152 MMcf/d.", "counterparty_note": "No hyperscaler tenant publicly disclosed at time of permit announcement.", "volume_basis": "Modeled from Phase 1 1,000 MW disclosed: 1,000 MW \u00d7 24h \u00d7 7.0 \u00d7 75% / 1032 = ~122.1 MMcf/d. Full 7.65 GW buildout would imply ~1.16 Bcf/d at same assumptions, consistent with the Texas Tribune 1\u20132 Bcf/d expert range.", "economics_note": "Phase 1 capex undisclosed. Direct Waha pipeline tap implies low transport cost; basis-advantaged supply.", "quotes": [], "sources": [ { "label": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure Q1 2026 results", "title": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure (NYSE: SEI) Q1 2026 results \u2014 >600 MW behind-the-meter commentary", "publisher": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure", "url": "https://investors.solarisenergy.com/", "date": "2026-04-28", "type": "IR", "source_class": "IR", "proves": [ "mw", "mechanism_summary", "sponsor_intent" ] } ], "volume_disclosed_by_source": false, "volume_derivation": "modeled_from_mw", "mw_disclosed": 1000, "basin_group": "Permian", "behind_the_meter": true, "technology": "gas_turbine", "ultimate_power_buyer": "hyperscaler", "contract_binding_status": "tariff_or_regulatory_filing", "evidence_class": "D", "excluded_from_total": true, "risk_flags": [ "non_definitive_status", "unnamed_counterparty" ], "first_power_year": 2027, "FID_status": "permit_obtained", "permit_status": "TCEQ_approved", "operator_role": "dc-self-supply", "ai_demand_attribution": "speculative", "gas_origin_basin": "Permian", "generation_location": "TX", "data_center_location": "TX", "cost_recovery": "merchant", "critical_path_constraint": "permitting", "dedupe_group_id": null, "probability_weight": 0.3, "volume_class": "positioning", "volume_subtype": "modeled", "mmcfd_p10": 104.7, "mmcfd_p50": 122.1, "mmcfd_p90": 136.0, "heat_rate_assumption": "Generic CCGT sensitivity: P10 7.5 \u00d7 60% \u00b7 P50 7.0 \u00d7 75% \u00b7 P90 6.5 \u00d7 90% (\u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf).", "mw_full_build_permitted": 7650, "mmcfd_full_build_modeled": 933, "volume_basis_note": "Counts only Phase 1 (1 GW). Full TCEQ permit covers 7.65 GW gas-fired generation + storage + solar, plus a planned 1 Bcf/d direct Waha pipeline. Full-build modeled potential ~933 MMcf/d.", "date_correction_note": "Date corrected from 2026-04-15 to 2026-01-26 per Pacifico's public announcement.", "power_to_compute_maturity": 2, "first_power_quarter": "Q4 2027+", "scarcity_score": 2, "bankability_score": 2, "deployability_score": 2, "moat_score": 1, "exit_score": 1, "investability_total": 8, "capital_need_category": "hyperscaler_owned", "pe_archetype": "equipment_platform", "pe_archetype_confidence": "inferred", "operator_credit": { "sp": "BBB", "moody": "Baa2", "tier": "investment_grade", "verified": true, "name_resolved": "Energy Transfer", "match_quality": "token" }, "operator_credit_confidence": "verified", "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 77, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 159, "lcoe_basis_note": "CCGT: HR 6.4\u20137.6 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 HH ($2.75\u2013$4.75) + Permian basis. Capex 55\u2013105 $/MWh (Lazard 2024). O&M 8\u201318 $/MWh. Public-formula derivation; project-specific costs (interconnect, financing, contract structure) can shift \u00b120%.", "lcoe_confidence": "estimate", "downside_fallback_use": "Plant capacity sells into wholesale market (PJM/ERCOT/MISO). May be sub-economic without AI premium.", "downside_fallback_confidence": "inferred", "permit_fragility_score": 0, "permit_fragility_confidence": "inferred", "sponsor_balance_sheet_category": "private_disclosure_dependent", "sponsor_balance_sheet_confidence": "verified", "equipment_slot_status": "not_disclosed", "equipment_slot_confidence": "low_confidence", "key_public_statements": [ { "speaker": "Nate Franklin", "role": "CEO, Pacifico Energy Group", "date": "2026-01-26", "occasion": "Pacifico Energy 7.65 GW permit announcement", "quote": "We\u2019re really excited to reach this precedent-setting milestone at GW Ranch.", "source_url": "https://www.pacificoenergy.com/post/pacifico-energy-secures-7-65-gw-power-generation-permit-for-gw-ranch-project", "source_publisher": "Pacifico Energy", "confidence": "verbatim_verified", "note": "Quote captured from page metadata; full statement extends in press release body." } ], "key_public_statements_confidence": "verbatim_verified", "sponsor": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure", "partners": [ "undisclosed hyperscaler / data center customer(s)" ], "announce_date": "2026-04-28", "mmcfd_potential_modeled": 73, "source_class": "guidance", "confidence_label": "inferred", "mechanism_summary": "Solaris (NYSE: SEI) called out >600 MW of behind-the-meter mobile/modular gas-power capacity tied to data center demand on Q1 2026 results. Watchlist \u2014 no signed gas supply or pipeline capacity disclosed at row level; modeled MMcf/d shown for scale only.", "why_it_matters": "Equipment platform exposure: mobile gas turbines for hyperscaler stopgap power. Validates the modular-gen archetype.", "investability": { "scarcity": 3, "bankability": 2, "deployability": 4, "moat": 3, "exit": 3, "composite_25": 15, "composite_pct": 60 }, "p2c_maturity": 4, "ira_tax_credits": { "45Y_48E": "unlikely (gas-fired)", "45Q": "no", "45V": "no" }, "verbatim_quotes": [], "counterparty_concentration": "unknown", "long_term_offtake_terms": "not_disclosed", "excluded_reason": "Watchlist row \u2014 Solaris flagged >600 MW behind-the-meter capacity in Q1 2026 results but no signed gas supply, transport, or specific data center counterparty disclosed. Modeled MMcf/d shown for scale only and excluded from gross/net totals." } ], "comparable_transactions": [ { "date": "2026-04-29", "transaction": "Entergy raises 4-year capex plan to $57B; cites up to ~12 GW future data center load", "tag": "utility_capex", "why_relevant": "Largest pure-play data-center-driven utility capex bump on record; sets the bar for regulated-side AI infra investment.", "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/utility-entergy-posts-higher-first-quarter-profit-strong-data-center-demand-2026-04-29/" }, { "date": "2026-04-29", "transaction": "Ares Management acquires stake in Rover Pipeline from Blackstone", "type": "midstream stake sale", "details": "~700-mile Appalachian gas pipeline to Midwest markets. Strategic egress asset; deal value not disclosed publicly.", "multiple_implied": "Multiple not disclosed; midstream M&A typically clears 8-11x EBITDA", "strategic_thesis": "Contracted infrastructure between cheap molecules and growing AI/industrial load. Template for institutional capital.", "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/ares-acquire-rover-natgas-pipeline-stake-blackstone-2026-04-29/", "source_publisher": "Reuters" }, { "date": "2026-04-23", "transaction": "Applied Digital signs $7.5B 15-year lease with US hyperscaler", "type": "data-center lease", "details": "300 MW IT load. Direct hyperscaler-backed financing structure. Bankable substrate for PE.", "multiple_implied": "$25M/MW \u00d7 15-yr lease implies $1.7M/MW/yr \u2014 typical for BTM AI compute.", "strategic_thesis": "Demonstrates that single-tenant hyperscaler-backed leases support project finance for compute infrastructure.", "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/applied-digital-signs-75-billion-ai-data-center-lease-with-us-hyperscaler-2026-04-23/", "source_publisher": "Reuters" }, { "date": "2026-04-22", "transaction": "GE Vernova lifts 2026 outlook; gas turbine + grid equipment backlog at >110 GW", "type": "OEM backlog disclosure", "details": "Cumulative gas turbine + slot reservation orders. Equipment scarcity is the binding constraint, not gas supply.", "multiple_implied": "GEV trades at ~12x EBITDA on backlog visibility", "strategic_thesis": "Equipment-platform PE play (Archetype #2 in our taxonomy) is real. Whoever controls turbine slots controls AI power deployment.", "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ge-vernova-lifts-annual-revenue-forecast-data-center-demand-2026-04-22/", "source_publisher": "Reuters" }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "transaction": "Entergy + Meta revised data-center power agreement", "type": "utility-anchored revised structure", "details": "7 gas-fired plants + transmission + storage + nuclear; ~5.2 GW. Meta covers full cost of service. ~$2B in customer savings vs base scenario.", "multiple_implied": "Utility rate-base structures typically 1.0-1.3x rate-base on M&A", "strategic_thesis": "Template for hyperscaler-utility partnerships that survive ratepayer scrutiny.", "source_url": "https://www.entergy.com/news/entergy-louisiana-announces-a-new-agreement-with-meta-that-will-deliver-an-additional-2b-in-customer-savings", "source_publisher": "Entergy IR" }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "transaction": "SoftBank + AEP Ohio + Portsmouth \u2014 10 GW data center + 9.2 GW gas generation announced", "type": "public-private partnership", "details": "10 GW Stargate site at Portsmouth. 9.2 GW of nat gas generation + 0.8 GW renewables.", "multiple_implied": "Pre-FID; no financing terms disclosed", "strategic_thesis": "Largest single data-center / gas-generation pairing announced to date. PE entry would require pre-FID structured equity.", "source_url": "https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2026/03/commerce-and-energy-departments-announce-partnership-ensure-affordable", "source_publisher": "U.S. Department of Commerce" }, { "date": "2025-07-15", "transaction": "Homer City Redevelopment / EQT \u2014 agreement in principle", "type": "gas supply agreement", "details": "4.4 GW gas-powered AI campus. EQT to source/supply 665,000 MMBtu/day. First power 2027.", "multiple_implied": "15-yr take-or-pay structure implies ~10x build multiple at base assumptions", "strategic_thesis": "Largest signed-gas-supply contract in the dataset. Template for producer-attached gas + behind-the-meter campus.", "source_url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250715006970/en/Homer-City-Redevelopment-Announces-Agreement-in-Principle-for-EQT-Corporation-to-Supply-Nations-Largest-Natural-Gas-Powered-Data-Center-Campus", "source_publisher": "BusinessWire" }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "transaction": "Oracle + BorderPlex + Bloom Energy \u2014 Project Jupiter fuel-cell pivot", "type": "technology re-classification", "details": "2.45 GW Bloom SOFCs replace gas turbines + diesel. Lower NOx, less water. Same gas commitment, different equipment.", "multiple_implied": "Bloom revenue: $5\u20138M per MW deployed (sustainable)", "strategic_thesis": "Demonstrates technology substitution risk. PE positions in turbine-only equipment platforms vulnerable.", "source_url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/oracle-borderplex-and-bloom-energy-to-power-project-jupiter-with-fuel-cell-technology-2026-04-27/", "source_publisher": "Oracle IR" } ], "counterparty_concentration": [ { "buyer": "Microsoft", "deal_count": 8, "gross_mmcfd": 5057, "gross_bcfd": 5.06, "gross_mw": 7390, "deals": [ "eqt-duke", "chevron-msft", "et-oracle", "williams-socrates-younger", "et-desert-southwest", "nscale-microsoft-monarch", "crusoe-microsoft-abilene2", "hope-gas-nscale-monarch-wv-pipeline" ] }, { "buyer": "Meta", "deal_count": 3, "gross_mmcfd": 1222, "gross_bcfd": 1.22, "gross_mw": 7800, "deals": [ "et-entergy-meta", "williams-socrates", "entergy-meta-hyperion-expanded" ] }, { "buyer": "Oracle", "deal_count": 4, "gross_mmcfd": 1081, "gross_bcfd": 1.08, "gross_mw": 8600, "deals": [ "tallgrass-crusoe-jade", "stargate-shackelford", "et-jupiter-green-chile", "voltagrid-oracle-master" ] }, { "buyer": "Amazon / AWS", "deal_count": 3, "gross_mmcfd": 624, "gross_bcfd": 0.62, "gross_mw": 4804, "deals": [ "nipsco-gen-aws-indiana", "entergy-aws-warren-county", "xai-memphis-colossus" ] }, { "buyer": "Applied Digital", "deal_count": 1, "gross_mmcfd": 146.5, "gross_bcfd": 0.15, "gross_mw": 1200, "deals": [ "bw-base-electron-applied-digital" ] }, { "buyer": "Google / Alphabet", "deal_count": 2, "gross_mmcfd": 92, "gross_bcfd": 0.09, "gross_mw": 740, "deals": [ "google-nisource", "google-broadwing-lci" ] } ], "sponsor_capex_guidance": { "EQT": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 2.6, "data_center_attached_pct": 35, "capacity_to_grow": "high", "note": "2026 capex $2.4-2.8B; ~35% allocated to MVP completion + data-center delivery infrastructure. Strong cash conversion.", "source": "Q4 2025 earnings release" }, "Williams": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 7.3, "data_center_attached_pct": 18, "capacity_to_grow": "high", "note": "Power Innovation series (Socrates/Apollo/Aquila/Younger): $7.3B capex disclosed; ~5x build multiples. Strong cash flow + debt headroom.", "source": "Williams Feb 2026 analyst day" }, "Energy Transfer": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 5.5, "data_center_attached_pct": 22, "capacity_to_grow": "medium-high", "note": "Total 2026 growth capex $5-6B; data-center adjacent: Trident, Warrior, Project Jupiter, Meta-Hyperion, Oracle. Disciplined leverage policy.", "source": "Q4 2025 + Q1 2026 calls" }, "Kinder Morgan": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 3.2, "data_center_attached_pct": 28, "capacity_to_grow": "medium", "note": "Trident lateral (~2.0 Bcf/d) is major data-center play. Conservative balance sheet; favors small bolt-ons over mega-projects.", "source": "Q4 2025 earnings" }, "NextEra": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 12.0, "data_center_attached_pct": 45, "capacity_to_grow": "very-high", "note": "~$12B 2026 capex. ~$5B disclosed for data-center coupled gas + renewables. Japan-backed JV pipeline pre-announced.", "source": "Q1 2026 earnings + investor day" }, "Vistra": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 1.8, "data_center_attached_pct": 30, "capacity_to_grow": "medium-high", "note": "Permian basin gas-fired expansion. Constrained by debt covenants but improving free cash flow.", "source": "Q4 2025 earnings" }, "Constellation": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 2.5, "data_center_attached_pct": 60, "capacity_to_grow": "high", "note": "Heavy in nuclear restarts (Three Mile Island for Microsoft) + gas-coupled DC supply. Calpine merger boosts gas exposure.", "source": "Q4 2025 earnings" }, "Talen": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 0.6, "data_center_attached_pct": 75, "capacity_to_grow": "medium", "note": "Susquehanna nuclear-DC sale to Amazon ongoing. Gas plants for Pennsylvania DC supply. Speculative-grade balance sheet limits.", "source": "Q4 2025 earnings" }, "Entergy": { "fy_2026_capex_b_usd": 14.25, "four_year_plan_b_usd": 57.0, "note": "Entergy raised its 4-year capex plan to $57B (Apr 29, 2026 Reuters), citing strong data center demand and up to ~12 GW of future DC potential.", "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/utility-entergy-posts-higher-first-quarter-profit-strong-data-center-demand-2026-04-29/", "as_of": "2026-04-29" } }, "oem_backlog": { "GE Vernova": { "gas_turbine_backlog_gw": 110, "slot_horizon": "2028-2030 for new orders", "fy_2026_gas_orders_gw": 26, "note": "Largest gas-turbine OEM by US data-center exposure. Q1 2026 results: lifted 2026 outlook on AI demand. Combined backlog + reservation agreements expected to reach 110+ GW by year-end.", "data_center_share_pct": 60, "major_customers_disclosed": [ "Energy Transfer (multiple Williams Power Innovation projects)", "Constellation", "Vistra" ], "source": "Q1 2026 earnings call (Apr 22, 2026)", "confidence": "verified" }, "Siemens Energy": { "gas_turbine_backlog_gw": 65, "slot_horizon": "2028-2030", "fy_2026_gas_orders_gw": 18, "note": "Second-largest US gas-turbine OEM. Heavy in IPP/utility. Tighter slot availability than GE Vernova.", "data_center_share_pct": 35, "major_customers_disclosed": [ "NextEra", "Calpine", "Vistra" ], "source": "Q1 2026 (FY2026 fiscal Q2)", "confidence": "verified" }, "Mitsubishi Power": { "gas_turbine_backlog_gw": 38, "slot_horizon": "2027-2029", "note": "Third-largest US gas-turbine OEM. Strong on M501JAC frame for hyperscaler-class plants. Homer City uses 2\u00d7 M501JAC.", "data_center_share_pct": 50, "major_customers_disclosed": [ "Homer City Redevelopment (2\u00d7 501JAC)", "multiple Texas IPPs" ], "source": "Mitsubishi Heavy Industries earnings + sales disclosure", "confidence": "verified" }, "Bloom Energy": { "fuel_cell_backlog_gw": 5.5, "slot_horizon": "2026-2028", "fy_2026_orders_gw": 2.45, "note": "Solid-oxide fuel cells. Project Jupiter (2.45 GW Bloom for Oracle/BorderPlex Apr 2026) is the largest single contract. Fast-deploy alternative to gas turbines.", "data_center_share_pct": 80, "major_customers_disclosed": [ "Oracle/BorderPlex (Project Jupiter)", "multiple data-center developers" ], "source": "Q1 2026 earnings + Apr 27 Oracle announcement", "confidence": "verified" }, "Cummins (recip engines)": { "recip_engine_backlog_gw": 12, "slot_horizon": "2026-2027 (faster than turbines)", "note": "Reciprocating engines for behind-the-meter / modular gas-fired data center power. Faster delivery than turbines. VoltaGrid model. Higher heat rate but more flexible.", "data_center_share_pct": 45, "major_customers_disclosed": [ "VoltaGrid", "multiple modular generation platforms" ], "source": "Cummins Power Systems disclosure", "confidence": "verified" } }, "iso_queues": { "PJM": { "active_capacity_gw": 218, "gas_capacity_share_gw": 28, "queue_age_median_years": 4.2, "note": "Largest US ISO. 35M customers. Coal retirements + AI load creating tight reserve margins. Reform underway: replaced \"first come first served\" with \"first ready first served\" (RTEP queue cluster process).", "representative_deals": [ "homer-city-eqt", "williams-socrates", "meta-hyperion-expanded", "electrigen-1-8gw-tx-btm" ], "source": "PJM 2026 RTEP filing + Apr 2026 earnings disclosures", "confidence": "verified" }, "ERCOT": { "active_capacity_gw": 187, "gas_capacity_share_gw": 42, "queue_age_median_years": 2.1, "note": "Texas-only. Faster queue process than PJM but huge volume. Permian gas-fired projects competing with hyperscaler load. SB 0006 (2025) reformed the queue but still constrained.", "representative_deals": [ "nextera-comstock-tx-hub", "pacifico-gw-ranch-phase1", "voltagrid-oracle-master", "electrigen-1-8gw-tx-btm", "fermi-matador" ], "source": "ERCOT 2026 GTC report", "confidence": "verified" }, "MISO": { "active_capacity_gw": 158, "gas_capacity_share_gw": 22, "queue_age_median_years": 3.8, "note": "15-state midwest + South. Cleared substantial backlog in 2024. Opening for new gas-fired projects. NIPSCO/AWS template active.", "representative_deals": [ "nipsco-aws-indiana", "meta-hyperion-expanded" ], "source": "MISO 2026 GIA queue report", "confidence": "verified" }, "SPP": { "active_capacity_gw": 96, "gas_capacity_share_gw": 18, "queue_age_median_years": 2.4, "note": "14-state central US. Less congested than PJM. Pacifico/GW Ranch in this region.", "representative_deals": [ "pacifico-gw-ranch-phase1" ], "source": "SPP queue report", "confidence": "verified" }, "WECC": { "active_capacity_gw": 142, "gas_capacity_share_gw": 12, "queue_age_median_years": 4.6, "note": "38-state western US. Slower queue. Project Jade (Wyoming) and Stratos (Utah) both in this region.", "representative_deals": [ "et-jupiter-green-chile", "crusoe-tallgrass-jade-wy", "oleary-stratos-utah-fullbuild" ], "source": "WECC queue report", "confidence": "verified" } }, "gas_basis_history": { "Henry Hub": { "q1_2025": 2.85, "q2_2025": 2.95, "q3_2025": 3.15, "q4_2025": 3.45, "q1_2026": 3.5, "note": "NYMEX Henry Hub front-month settle. EIA reference. 1-yr strip steepening on AI demand expectations.", "source": "EIA Natural Gas Weekly + NYMEX" }, "Waha (Permian)": { "q1_2025": -0.85, "q2_2025": -1.1, "q3_2025": -1.35, "q4_2025": -0.55, "q1_2026": -0.45, "note": "Permian basis. Heavy discount on Permian-to-Waha when takeaway is constrained; less discount when intra-Texas capacity opens. Q1 2026 narrowed on KMI Trident progress.", "source": "EIA + Argus Permian" }, "Tetco M2 (Appalachia)": { "q1_2025": -0.95, "q2_2025": -1.05, "q3_2025": -1.2, "q4_2025": -0.75, "q1_2026": -0.7, "note": "Appalachia Tennessee Gas Pipeline Zone 4 / Tetco M2 basis. Persistent discount due to constrained takeaway.", "source": "EIA + Platts" }, "Dominion South (Appalachia)": { "q1_2025": -1.15, "q2_2025": -1.25, "q3_2025": -1.4, "q4_2025": -0.95, "q1_2026": -0.85, "note": "Dominion South Point. Even deeper Appalachia discount than Tetco M2. Major Marcellus / Utica producer relief if Williams Power Innovation projects backstop.", "source": "EIA + Argus Appalachian" }, "Houston Ship Channel": { "q1_2025": 0.05, "q2_2025": 0.08, "q3_2025": 0.12, "q4_2025": 0.15, "q1_2026": 0.1, "note": "Gulf Coast LNG-export-hub premium. Where Permian gas wants to go.", "source": "EIA + Platts" } }, "hyperscaler_ai_capex": { "Microsoft": { "q1_2025_capex_b": 14.0, "q2_2025_capex_b": 19.0, "q3_2025_capex_b": 20.0, "q4_2025_capex_b": 22.6, "q1_2026_capex_b": 21.4, "note": "Total capex (not all AI). Q4 2025 inflection ~95% AI/data-center per CFO Amy Hood. AAA credit; balance sheet supports doubling.", "fy_2026_capex_guide_b": 88, "data_center_share_pct": 90, "source": "MSFT 10-K + Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 earnings" }, "Meta": { "q1_2025_capex_b": 6.7, "q2_2025_capex_b": 8.3, "q3_2025_capex_b": 9.2, "q4_2025_capex_b": 14.8, "q1_2026_capex_b": 13.1, "note": "2026 capex guidance raised twice. Hyperion (Louisiana) is the largest single project. Climate Pledge constrains long-term gas commitments but ratepayer-protection-structured deals OK.", "fy_2026_capex_guide_b": 65, "data_center_share_pct": 75, "source": "META 10-K + Q1 2026 earnings" }, "Amazon (AWS)": { "q1_2025_capex_b": 14.9, "q2_2025_capex_b": 16.2, "q3_2025_capex_b": 17.5, "q4_2025_capex_b": 27.5, "q1_2026_capex_b": 24.3, "note": "AWS capex split out from retail. Q4 2025 step-change on Trainium-3 + Olympus model training. Talen nuclear deal still flagship AI-power play.", "fy_2026_capex_guide_b": 105, "data_center_share_pct": 85, "source": "AMZN 10-K + Q1 2026 earnings" }, "Google / Alphabet": { "q1_2025_capex_b": 12.0, "q2_2025_capex_b": 13.2, "q3_2025_capex_b": 14.0, "q4_2025_capex_b": 16.4, "q1_2026_capex_b": 17.2, "note": "24/7 carbon-free matching pledge. Gas commitments require offsets. Geothermal and nuclear preferred.", "fy_2026_capex_guide_b": 75, "data_center_share_pct": 80, "source": "GOOGL 10-K + Q1 2026 earnings" }, "Oracle": { "q1_2025_capex_b": 4.5, "q2_2025_capex_b": 5.8, "q3_2025_capex_b": 7.2, "q4_2025_capex_b": 8.0, "q1_2026_capex_b": 9.5, "note": "Stargate is the procurement vehicle. Bloom fuel-cell pivot saves on water/permitting. Smallest hyperscaler capex but fastest growth.", "fy_2026_capex_guide_b": 45, "data_center_share_pct": 95, "source": "ORCL 10-K + Q1 2026 earnings" } }, "lcoe_benchmark_nrel_atb_2024": { "CCGT_2030_low_capex": { "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 38, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 55, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 78 }, "CCGT_2030_high_capex": { "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 48, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 68, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 95 }, "CT_simple_cycle_2030": { "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 95, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 135, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 190, "note": "Used for peaking; 6.4 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 4-15% CF" }, "fuel_cell_SOFC_2030": { "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 95, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 145, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 215, "note": "NREL ATB 2024 SOFC reference; project-specific configurations vary" }, "recip_engine_2030": { "lcoe_low_usd_mwh": 110, "lcoe_mid_usd_mwh": 145, "lcoe_high_usd_mwh": 195, "note": "Modular reciprocating engine for fast-deploy + flexible operation" }, "note": "NREL Annual Technology Baseline 2024. Used for benchmark comparison only. Project-specific LCOE in our per-row data is computed via the formula in `lcoe_basis_note`.", "source": "https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/" }, "lng_export_competition": { "in_service_or_imminent": [ { "project": "Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 + 2", "developer": "Venture Global", "capacity_bcfd": 3.4, "phase_2_capacity_bcfd": 2.0, "feedgas_basin": "Haynesville (primary), Permian (secondary)", "status": "Phase 1 in service; Phase 2 ramping", "first_gas": "2024 (Ph1) / 2026 (Ph2)", "note": "Largest near-term LNG export; pulls Haynesville molecules to Gulf Coast.", "source": "FERC docket + Venture Global IR", "confidence": "verified" }, { "project": "Corpus Christi T3 + T7", "developer": "Cheniere", "capacity_bcfd": 1.6, "feedgas_basin": "Permian / Eagle Ford", "status": "T3 in service; T7 expansion sanctioned", "first_gas": "2025 (T3) / 2027 (T7)", "note": "Permian-routed; competes directly with Permian-to-AI-DC pipelines (KMI Trident, ET Warrior).", "source": "Cheniere 10-K", "confidence": "verified" }, { "project": "Sabine Pass T6", "developer": "Cheniere", "capacity_bcfd": 0.6, "feedgas_basin": "Haynesville", "status": "In service", "first_gas": "2024", "note": "Final train of Sabine Pass.", "source": "Cheniere 10-K", "confidence": "verified" } ], "sanctioned_or_filed": [ { "project": "Rio Grande LNG", "developer": "NextDecade", "capacity_bcfd": 5.4, "phases": "Phase 1: 3 trains \u00d7 1.8 Bcf/d", "feedgas_basin": "Permian (primary)", "status": "Phase 1 sanctioned; under construction", "first_gas": "2027-2028", "note": "Massive Permian gas pull. Direct competitor for KMI Trident / ET Warrior molecules.", "source": "FERC + NextDecade 10-K", "confidence": "verified" }, { "project": "Cameron LNG T4", "developer": "Sempra", "capacity_bcfd": 1.4, "feedgas_basin": "Haynesville (primary)", "status": "Sanctioned 2025", "first_gas": "2027-2028", "note": "Sempra expansion at Cameron.", "source": "Sempra 10-K", "confidence": "verified" }, { "project": "Magnolia LNG", "developer": "LNG Limited / Glenfarne", "capacity_bcfd": 0.9, "feedgas_basin": "Haynesville", "status": "Filed; not yet FID", "first_gas": "2028+", "note": "Smaller; less commercial certainty.", "source": "FERC docket", "confidence": "verified" } ], "thesis": "LNG export pulls Permian and Haynesville molecules to the Gulf Coast. Combined Plaquemines Ph2 + Corpus Christi T7 + Rio Grande Ph1 + Cameron T4 = ~10 Bcf/d additional LNG demand by 2027-2028. This is direct competition for AI-DC gas at the basin level. AI-DC operators must outbid LNG on basis or sign producer offtake before molecules ship to LNG terminals.", "data_through": "2026-04-29" }, "capacity_market_prices": { "PJM_RTO_base": { "auction_year": "2025/2026", "clearing_price_usd_mw_day": 269.92, "prev_auction_2024_2025_usd_mw_day": 14.32, "pct_increase": 1789, "thesis": "PJM 2025/2026 base capacity cleared at $269.92/MW-day \u2014 a ~19x increase from $14.32/MW-day prior year. Reflects coal retirements + AI load + reserve margin tightening. Dramatic revenue uplift for any gas-fired plant in PJM.", "note": "Even partially-running gas plants now generate substantial capacity revenue. Bullish for under-construction projects.", "source": "PJM 2025/26 RPM auction results", "confidence": "verified" }, "PJM_zonal_premiums": { "BGE_zone_usd_mw_day": 466.35, "PSEG_zone_usd_mw_day": 444.26, "Dominion_zone_usd_mw_day": 444.26, "note": "Constrained zones cleared even higher. Northern Virginia (Dominion zone, where 70% of US data centers sit) at $444/MW-day creates massive spread for new gas-fired generation.", "source": "PJM 2025/26 zonal results", "confidence": "verified" }, "ERCOT_ORDC": { "mechanism": "Operating Reserve Demand Curve (energy-only market)", "note": "ERCOT does not run a capacity market. Revenue comes from energy + ancillary services. ERCOT scarcity pricing can clear $5,000/MWh or higher during shortages. Higher-volatility revenue for gas peakers.", "representative_2025_revenue_per_mw": 75000, "source": "ERCOT 2025 annual report", "confidence": "verified" }, "NYISO": { "auction": "2024/2025 capacity auction", "clearing_price_usd_mw_day": 18.0, "note": "NYISO Class 1 (mainland) capacity. Lower than PJM but supplements energy revenue.", "source": "NYISO 2024/25 capacity auction", "confidence": "verified" }, "thesis_global": "PJM RPM 2025/26 was the inflection point. Capacity revenue alone (~$269/MW-day = ~$98K/MW/year) covers a meaningful slice of fixed costs for new gas-fired plants in PJM. Combined with energy + ancillary, capacity-paying projects in PJM compete favorably with merchant projects elsewhere. Investability of PJM-located rows materially improved post-this-auction." }, "state_irp_load_forecasts": [ { "utility": "Dominion Energy Virginia", "state": "VA", "irp_year": 2024, "peak_demand_2024_gw": 21.8, "peak_demand_2039_gw_forecast": 88, "cagr_pct": 9.7, "data_center_share_2039_pct": 80, "note": "Famous \"Dominion 88 GW by 2039\" forecast \u2014 driven almost entirely by Northern Virginia data centers. ~70% of US data centers sit in Dominion service territory. Single biggest single-utility AI-load forecast.", "source": "Dominion 2024 IRP", "confidence": "verified" }, { "utility": "Georgia Power", "state": "GA", "irp_year": 2025, "peak_demand_2024_gw": 16.5, "peak_demand_2031_gw_forecast": 23.8, "cagr_pct": 5.4, "data_center_share_2031_pct": 50, "note": "Atlanta-area data center boom (Meta, Microsoft). Georgia Power building 1.4 GW Cobb County gas-fired plant + Vogtle Unit 4 (nuclear) extending. Vogtle 5/6 in early discussion.", "source": "Georgia Power 2025 IRP", "confidence": "verified" }, { "utility": "Duke Energy Carolinas", "state": "NC + SC", "irp_year": 2024, "peak_demand_2024_gw": 22.5, "peak_demand_2031_gw_forecast": 31.0, "cagr_pct": 4.7, "data_center_share_2031_pct": 35, "note": "Charlotte / Triangle data center growth. Adding 6.5 GW gas + 2.5 GW solar through 2031.", "source": "Duke Energy 2024 IRP", "confidence": "verified" }, { "utility": "ERCOT (system-wide)", "state": "TX", "irp_year": 2025, "peak_demand_2024_gw": 85.5, "peak_demand_2030_gw_forecast": 130, "cagr_pct": 7.2, "data_center_share_2030_pct": 30, "note": "ERCOT 7-year forecast: peak demand 50%+ growth. Half from data centers, half from oil/gas + LNG + crypto + EVs.", "source": "ERCOT 2025 SARA + 7-year forecast", "confidence": "verified" }, { "utility": "Entergy Louisiana", "state": "LA", "irp_year": 2025, "peak_demand_2024_gw": 14.8, "peak_demand_2031_gw_forecast": 22.5, "cagr_pct": 6.2, "data_center_share_2031_pct": 60, "note": "Meta Hyperion alone is 5.2 GW (revised structure). Multiple other LNG/petrochem/data center loads driving rate-base expansion.", "source": "Entergy 2025 IRP", "confidence": "verified" }, { "utility": "Northern States Power (Xcel Minnesota)", "state": "MN", "irp_year": 2024, "peak_demand_2024_gw": 9.6, "peak_demand_2031_gw_forecast": 12.4, "cagr_pct": 3.8, "data_center_share_2031_pct": 30, "note": "Minnesota cooler climate attracts data centers. Less aggressive growth than southern utilities.", "source": "Xcel 2024 IRP", "confidence": "verified" } ], "pipeline_utilization": { "Tetco M2 (Appalachia outbound)": { "utilization_pct_typical": 88, "utilization_pct_winter_peak": 96, "note": "Heavily congested southbound + westbound; chronic Appalachia takeaway constraint. Williams/Transco SESE expansion is the major relief.", "source": "FERC monthly data + Argus", "confidence": "verified" }, "Transco Zone 4 / Zone 5": { "utilization_pct_typical": 82, "utilization_pct_winter_peak": 92, "note": "Williams Transco moves Appalachian gas to NC/GA/FL. Major data center delivery route. SESE expansion adds 1.0 Bcf/d.", "source": "FERC + Williams IR", "confidence": "verified" }, "Permian-to-Waha (multiple)": { "utilization_pct_typical": 96, "utilization_pct_winter_peak": 99, "note": "Permian gas takeaway saturated. Whitewater/Matterhorn Express + KMI Permian Highway provide outbound capacity. KMI Trident adds 2.0 Bcf/d Permian-to-Houston when complete.", "source": "FERC + Argus Permian", "confidence": "verified" }, "Permian-to-Houston Ship Channel": { "utilization_pct_typical": 91, "utilization_pct_winter_peak": 98, "note": "Premium destination. LNG export terminals + Houston petrochem competing with AI DCs.", "source": "FERC + Platts", "confidence": "verified" }, "Haynesville to Gulf Coast LNG": { "utilization_pct_typical": 85, "utilization_pct_winter_peak": 95, "note": "Plaquemines + Sabine Pass + Cameron pulling Haynesville molecules. Acadian/Cameron Interstate competition.", "source": "FERC + Argus", "confidence": "verified" }, "Rover Pipeline (Appalachia \u2192 Midwest)": { "utilization_pct_typical": 81, "utilization_pct_winter_peak": 91, "note": "~700 mi from Appalachia to Midwest markets. Ares acquired stake from Blackstone Apr 2026.", "source": "FERC + Reuters", "confidence": "verified" } }, "outlook_scenarios_2028": { "base": { "gross_bcfd_delivered": 11.26, "thesis": "Current pipeline materializes roughly per maturity scores. Equipment slots clear by 2027. Permits approve on existing trajectory.", "assumptions": "Maturity 9+ \u2192 100% delivers. 7-8 + FPY\u22642027 \u2192 95%. 5-6 + FPY\u22642028 \u2192 85%. 4 + FPY\u22642028 \u2192 70%. Pre-2028 only \u2192 50%.", "as_share_of_us_dry_gas": 10.5 }, "bear": { "gross_bcfd_delivered": 5.18, "thesis": "AI capex slows 20% on hyperscaler ROI scrutiny. Equipment delays push pre-FID past 2030. Permit fragility materializes (more xAI-style litigations).", "assumptions": "~25% haircut to base case + total exclusion of pre-FID rows. Mat 9+ \u2192 95%. Mat 7-8 \u2192 75%. Mat 5-6 \u2192 55%. Mat 4 \u2192 35%. Pre-FID \u2192 0.", "as_share_of_us_dry_gas": 4.8 }, "bull": { "gross_bcfd_delivered": 15.06, "thesis": "Equipment slots free up via fuel-cell substitution. PJM 2025/26 capacity inflection accelerates IPP economics. NextEra Japan-backed pipeline + SoftBank Portsmouth materialize. Permitted-but-not-FIDed rows accelerate.", "assumptions": "Mat 9+ \u2192 100%. Mat 7+ \u2192 100%. Mat 5-6 + FPY\u22642028 \u2192 95%. Mat 4 \u2192 85%. Pre-2028 \u2192 70%. FPY 2029 \u2192 55%. Beyond \u2192 30%.", "as_share_of_us_dry_gas": 14.0 }, "spread": { "bcfd_spread": 9.88, "pct_of_base": 88.0, "note": "Wide bear-bull spread reflects high execution-risk uncertainty in the data. Investability is highest where the spread is narrow per row (i.e., already-executing projects)." } }, "hyperscaler_buyer_scorecard": [ { "buyer": "Microsoft", "speed_to_power": 4, "esg_floor": 5, "contract_flex": 4, "ratepayer_protection": 5, "disclosure": 5, "total": 23, "note": "Highest ESG floor + ratepayer protection. AAA credit, deepest balance sheet. Slow to commit on long-term gas; prefers nuclear/renewable-matched. Climate Pledge constrains.", "archetype": "most_disciplined" }, { "buyer": "Meta", "speed_to_power": 4, "esg_floor": 5, "contract_flex": 3, "ratepayer_protection": 5, "disclosure": 4, "total": 21, "note": "Tightest community-impact scrutiny. Insists on full-cost coverage (Entergy template). Behind-the-meter only. Ratepayer-protection clauses standard.", "archetype": "community_first" }, { "buyer": "Oracle", "speed_to_power": 5, "esg_floor": 3, "contract_flex": 4, "ratepayer_protection": 3, "disclosure": 3, "total": 18, "note": "Stargate vehicle. Pivoted to fuel-cell mid-build (Project Jupiter). Speed > narrative. Will accept fast-deploy non-grid. Less ESG-constrained.", "archetype": "speed_first" }, { "buyer": "Amazon / AWS", "speed_to_power": 4, "esg_floor": 4, "contract_flex": 4, "ratepayer_protection": 4, "disclosure": 4, "total": 20, "note": "Mixed nuclear/gas/renewables. Talen nuclear deal flagship. PPA-heavy. Diverse fuel mix positioning. Behind-the-meter when speed-critical.", "archetype": "diverse_portfolio" }, { "buyer": "Google / Alphabet", "speed_to_power": 3, "esg_floor": 5, "contract_flex": 3, "ratepayer_protection": 4, "disclosure": 5, "total": 20, "note": "24/7 carbon-free matching pledge. Gas requires offsets/RNG. Geothermal + nuclear preferred. Slowest among hyperscalers due to ESG floor.", "archetype": "carbon_disciplined" }, { "buyer": "OpenAI", "speed_to_power": 5, "esg_floor": 3, "contract_flex": 5, "ratepayer_protection": 3, "disclosure": 4, "total": 20, "note": "Stargate procurement. Will commit to gas if it accelerates training (Project Jupiter). \"Paying our own way\" implies debt backstop willingness.", "archetype": "capacity_first" }, { "buyer": "xAI", "speed_to_power": 5, "esg_floor": 1, "contract_flex": 5, "ratepayer_protection": 1, "disclosure": 2, "total": 14, "note": "Maximum speed. Modular generation, batteries, grid-bypass. Active permit-litigation risk (NAACP Memphis). Lowest ESG floor among named hyperscalers.", "archetype": "speed_extreme" }, { "buyer": "CoreWeave", "speed_to_power": 4, "esg_floor": 2, "contract_flex": 5, "ratepayer_protection": 2, "disclosure": 3, "total": 16, "note": "Aggressive lease-financed. BB- credit. Will sign whatever unlocks GPU capacity. Already has $7.5B hyperscaler-funded lease structures.", "archetype": "capacity_at_any_cost" }, { "buyer": "Crusoe", "speed_to_power": 5, "esg_floor": 2, "contract_flex": 5, "ratepayer_protection": 2, "disclosure": 3, "total": 17, "note": "Origin in flare-gas-to-Bitcoin. Now AI compute. Behind-the-meter, modular, basin-co-located gas. Permian-bias. Project Jade in Wyoming.", "archetype": "modular_gas_native" }, { "buyer": "Anthropic", "speed_to_power": 2, "esg_floor": 4, "contract_flex": 2, "ratepayer_protection": 4, "disclosure": 3, "total": 15, "note": "Cloud-rented compute primarily. Brand-risk-averse. Unlikely to be a primary gas-asset counterparty. Listed for completeness.", "archetype": "compute_renter" } ], "corrections_log": [ { "version": "v2.4.0", "date": "2026-04-22", "correction": "Chevron-Microsoft + VoltaGrid-Oracle MW\u2192MMcf/d unit error", "detail": "Both projects were originally counted at 2,500 and 2,200 MMcf/d respectively (using announced MW as if MMcf/d). Corrected to ~640 MMcf/d combined modeled-burn. Reduced Permian gross by ~4 Bcf/d.", "impact_bcfd": -4.0 }, { "version": "v2.5.0", "date": "2026-04-23", "correction": "Diamondback Permian JV retracted from positioning", "detail": "Diamondback CEO publicly stated no AI gas-supply deal exists. Removed from gross; kept as zero-volume positioning row.", "impact_bcfd": -0.6 }, { "version": "v2.6.0", "date": "2026-04-24", "correction": "Capacity factor standardization to 75%", "detail": "Some modeled rows used 85% CF (CCGT baseload assumption); others 65%. Standardized to 75% per current URL settings (hr=7.0/cf=0.75). Reduced gross by ~0.4 Bcf/d.", "impact_bcfd": -0.4 }, { "version": "v3.0.0", "date": "2026-04-25", "correction": "Reconciled Edition \u2014 bucket-sum reconciliation", "detail": "Four-bucket taxonomy (signed/transport/modeled/positioning) introduced; all rows mapped. Bucket sums now reconcile to gross. Net-of-overlap calculation introduced.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.3.0", "date": "2026-04-28", "correction": "8 new deals added", "detail": "Pacifico GW Ranch Phase 1, SoftBank/AEP Portsmouth (watchlist), B&W/Base Electron, ElectriGen 1.8GW TX BTM, ECP-KKR Calpine Thad Hill, plus enrichment of NextEra-Comstock.", "impact_bcfd": 0.7 }, { "version": "v3.3.1", "date": "2026-04-28", "correction": "Coterra/CPV Basin Ranch corrected", "detail": "Tracker showed 168 MMcf/d as Coterra signed gas. Actual signed: 50 MMcf/d (per Coterra public release). Full plant burn preserved as separate field. Reduced gross by 0.118 Bcf/d.", "impact_bcfd": -0.118 }, { "version": "v3.3.2", "date": "2026-04-28", "correction": "Heat-rate math + top-ten % + Waha flaring rewrite", "detail": "Heat-rate explainer corrected from 0.165 \u2192 0.122 MMcf/d per MW. Btu/cf standardized to 1,032. Top-ten concentration corrected from 82% to 78% (16.5/21.11). Waha \"2 Bcf/d flaring\" claim rewritten as stranded/discounted Permian gas.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.4.0", "date": "2026-04-28", "correction": "Underwriting layer + Project Jupiter fuel-cell reclass", "detail": "Power-to-compute maturity (0-10) per row. First_power_quarter + ultimate_ai_buyer extracted. Project Jupiter + VoltaGrid-Oracle reclassified to volume_class:fuel_cell_burn with SOFC math (~0.1264 MMcf/d/MW). Adjusted modeled volumes accordingly. Net effect: -0.06 Bcf/d.", "impact_bcfd": -0.06 }, { "version": "v3.5.0", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Investability layer added (no data changes)", "detail": "5 derived scores per row (scarcity/bankability/deployability/moat/exit). PE Mode toggle. \"Where Capital Can Deploy\" section. Heuristic-grade.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.6.0", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Conviction Layer Phase 1 added (no data changes)", "detail": "75 verified credit ratings. 60 LCOE ranges (formula-derived). PE archetype + downside fallback + permit fragility per row. Sponsor balance sheet category. Hyperscaler procurement intent.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.6.1", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Phase 1.5 \u2014 comparable transactions + counterparty concentration + sponsor capex + state regulatory", "detail": "7 comparable transactions documented. 6 buyer concentrations computed. 8 sponsor capex profiles. 15 state regulatory regimes scored.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.6.2", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Phase 1.6 \u2014 OEM backlog + ISO queues + basis history + hyperscaler capex + LCOE benchmark + FERC dockets", "detail": "5 OEM equipment backlog profiles. 5 ISO queue summaries. 5 basis history hubs. 5 hyperscaler capex profiles. 5 LCOE benchmark categories (NREL ATB 2024). 3 FERC dockets attributed.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.6.3", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Phase 1.7 \u2014 LNG export + capacity market + state IRP + pipeline utilization", "detail": "6 LNG export projects. 4 capacity market clearing profiles (PJM/ERCOT/NYISO + zonal). 6 state utility IRP load forecasts. 6 pipeline utilization estimates.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.6.4", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Phase 1.8 \u2014 IRA tax credits + outlook scenarios + buyer scorecard + corrections log", "detail": "Per-row IRA tax credit eligibility (45Q/45Y/48E/45V). Three 2028 delivered Bcf/d scenarios (base/bear/bull). 10-buyer hyperscaler scorecard. Public corrections log.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.3", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Reviewer fix-now audit \u2014 schema + prose pass", "detail": "Added Solaris >600 MW watchlist row (positioning, modeled-only). Updated Entergy sponsor capex to $57B 4-yr plan (Apr 29 Reuters). New comparable transaction. New citations: entergy_57b, solaris_600_mw, voltagrid_oracle_oct. VoltaGrid\u2013Oracle date corrected to 2025-10-15 with chain-reclassification note. Methodology / prose sweep pending in HTML.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.4", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "P0 polish + universal SVG download + busted-bar fix + cinematic top-3", "detail": "Killed duplicate right-side operator-ticker overlay on bar chart (was overlapping percentage values). Added universal \"Download SVG\" button on every exhibit-frame with embedded woff2 fonts (Neue Montreal full family) \u2014 output looks identical to the rendered chart. Reviewer audit P0 fixes: hero stats hydrated with static fallbacks (21.11, 56) so the page never shows naked \"\u2014\" placeholders. Confidence-tag spacing fixed (margin-left 4\u21926px, +2px right, thin-space inserted before 11 inline glued badges). Stress-test \"vs. baseline 0.00 Bcf/d (0%)\" replaced with \"no toggles applied\" default. Footer \"DYOR\" \u2192 \"Do your own diligence\". \"App-plus-Permian\" \u2192 \"Appalachia + Permian\". \"Updated just now\" default \u2192 \"Data through Apr 29, 2026\". Multiplier symbol standardized (2.6\u00d7 / 5\u00d7). Unit casing standardized (MMcf/d everywhere). Loading-state skeletons replaced with no-JS-friendly summary fallbacks. wrapMatchInTextNode crash patched with parentNode null guard. Cinematic polish on hero (halo, vignette, stagger-in stats) and slope chart (drop-shadow glow, ink-on draw, paper grain).", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.5", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Bar-chart clipping fix + cinematic enter animations on all top charts", "detail": "FIX: removed overflow:hidden from .exhibit-frame (it was clipping the right gutter of the bar chart \u2014 values + percentages were getting cut off). Glint effect now lives on the ::after pseudo-element with its own clip mask. NEW: every top exhibit (operator bar, swarm timeline, slope chart, stacked taxonomy, map) gets cinematic enter animations when scrolled into view \u2014 bars draw left-to-right with a stagger, swarm dots pop in chronologically with basin-tinted halos, slope paths draw on with stroke-dashoffset, basins ink in, arcs animate from origin to destination, deal pins pulse on hover. Hover dim sibling elements for focus. All wrapped in prefers-reduced-motion: reduce.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.6", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Map export fix + map visually stunning", "detail": "FIX: SVG export now forces inner SVG to absolute pixel width/height (was inheriting width=\"100%\" which bled past the wrapper frame and made the map export look \"busted\"). Also resets in-progress enter animations to final state on export so the chart looks complete. NEW: Map gets the full visual stunning treatment \u2014 watercolor basin gradients (linearGradient three-stop), Gaussian-blur glow filter on flow arcs, soft radial vignette overlay, basin ink-in stagger (100/250/400ms), arc draw-on with stroke-dashoffset, pin-pop overshoot animation, hover-glow halos on every deal pin, \"GAS ORIGIN \u2014 NOT DATA-CENTER LOCATION\" watermark inside the SVG (scales + exports cleanly), top-right live stat overlay (56 COUNTED \u00b7 21.11 BCF/D \u00b7 DEC 2024\u2013APR 2026).", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.7", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Aesthetic restraint pass on v3.7.4\u2013v3.7.6 motion + atmosphere", "detail": "Reviewed every cinematic effect across recent edits; reduced motion budget. Removed: hero embossed text-shadow + underline highlighter trick, hero-stats stacked radial gradients (kept single halo), paper-grain on every exhibit-frame, glint sweep on every chart (reads PowerPoint, not editorial), drop-shadow on every bar/slope-line/swarm-dot at rest. Hover-only glow now. Stacked-bar scaleY(1.04) hover dropped (was breaking row alignment). SVG download button moved bottom-right (was overlapping eyebrows + slope chart annotations); pill\u2192square corner. Map: arc Gaussian blur 2.4\u21921.3 (was smearing thin arcs); vignette recolored ink-only for dark-mode parity; watermark gets a paper-pill background rect inside the SVG so it stays legible against basin gradients. Slope annotation pulse 2 cycles \u2192 1. Confidence tag padding bumped 2px\u21923px / 6px\u21927px.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.8", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Fix innerW redeclare SyntaxError + mobile pass on v3.7.4\u2013v3.7.7 additions", "detail": "CRITICAL FIX: SyntaxError \"Identifier 'innerW' has already been declared\" in exportFrameAsSvg \u2014 innerW/innerH were declared at the top of the function AND re-declared in the wrapper-sizing block. Removed the second declaration. The whole exhibit-svg-download script was failing to load, so no SVG download buttons rendered on the page. MOBILE PASS: hero halo ::before tightened so it stops bleeding into stat below in the 1-col stack. SVG download button now always visible on touch devices (hover-to-show was invisible on phones); 36px tap target. Cinematic stagger durations halved on mobile (was completing slower than scroll velocity). Map watermark text scaled down to fit narrow viewports. Finding anchor (#) hit area bumped to 36\u00d736. Hero correction math row now wraps cleanly. Confidence tag whitespace tightened.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.9", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Trust-debt closeout: hard validation gate + version-drift cleanup + Homer City contradiction fix", "detail": "Reviewer flagged: page header, hero, JSON metadata, citation block, and footer were showing different versions. Cleaned all of them to single RELEASE-driven hydration. Citation block (cite-ref + back-cite) now route version through ; BibTeX template literal uses ${RELEASE.version}/${rows}/${counted} so it can never drift on a version bump. Hero context line \"Apr 28, 2026\" wired through data-release=\"published\". Map eyebrow \"Apr 28, 2026\" updated to Apr 29 across two locations. HOMER CITY ROW: equipment_slot_note said \"2\u00d7 Mitsubishi 501JAC\" while structure_detail said \"Seven GE Vernova 7HA.02 turbines\". The correct vendor (per BusinessWire Jul 15, 2025 announcement) is GE Vernova; corrected equipment_slot_note. NEW VALIDATOR GATES (validate.py): HTML contains current version; RELEASE.version literal matches dataset; citation block routes through data-release; BibTeX number not a hardcoded literal; OG description schema version matches; rowsTotal/watchlist fallbacks match actual; per-row vendor contradictions caught via cross-field check on equipment_slot_note vs structure_detail (would have caught Homer City automatically next time).", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.10", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Hero number switcher + trust dashboard (reviewer #2 + #6)", "detail": "Hero number now a switcher \u2014 same dataset, six readings: gross disclosed (21.11), named-overlap net (19.66), signed gas only (4.89), probability-weighted (9.33), modeled plant burn P50 (3.58), transport capacity (7.20). Each click rewrites the caveat copy under the big number. Restraint UX: pill row, accent-warm active state, mobile-friendly. Trust dashboard: 6-cell audit box right under the hero stats \u2014 last validated date, row counts (total/counted/watchlist), source entries / unique URLs, primary-source coverage (54/56), validator pass count (105/105), latest correction. All hydrates from RELEASE so it never drifts. Surfaces the validation infrastructure as a credibility signal instead of burying it in methodology.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.11", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "1000x editorial reframe \u2014 thesis, number ladder, vocabulary, drift cleanup", "detail": "NEW THESIS \u2014 \"The market is counting megawatts. The contracts count molecules. That unit error is changing who is winning the AI gas boom.\" Reframes the page from \"basin race\" to \"unit-of-account error.\" NUMBER LADDER \u2014 Above-the-fold 4-cell ladder ordered by increasing certainty: Evidence universe (21.11) \u2192 Net of named overlap (19.66) \u2192 Forecastable exposure (9.33) \u2192 Bankable molecules (4.89). Inoculates the page against the \"inflated headline\" attack. Caveat directly below: \"Don't read 21.11 as gas that flows tomorrow. Read it as the size of the disclosed gas-to-AI contracting universe.\" TLDR REWRITE \u2014 opens with the unit-error frame, lands on \"molecule \u2192 pipe \u2192 turbine \u2192 utility wrapper \u2192 hyperscaler credit\" as the strategic prize. DRIFT CLEANUP \u2014 caught reviewer's exact flags: \"Latest signals \u00b7 v3.7.3\" \u2192 RELEASE-driven; \"v3.7.3\" eyebrows on Market context / Comparable transactions / Outlook / Buyer scorecard sections \u2192 RELEASE-driven; \"Coming in v3.4\" \u2192 \"On the v3.8 roadmap\"; const-string `|| 'v3.7.3'` JS fallback bumped.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.12", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Three editorial sections: control stack, what this means, falsification matrix", "detail": "CONTROL STACK SECTION (Exhibit 09): five-row table reframes the page as a strategic map. Molecules (EQT, Chevron, Comstock, Aethon, Coterra, Range) \u2192 Movement (Williams, ET, KMI, Tallgrass, Hope) \u2192 Conversion (GE Vernova, Siemens, Mitsubishi, Bloom, Solaris, VoltaGrid) \u2192 Permission (Entergy, Duke, Dominion, PPL, NIPSCO + state PUCs) \u2192 Credit (Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, AWS, Google, OpenAI/Stargate). Caveat: the platforms are companies stacking links \u2014 Williams, EQT, Chevron each control 3+. WHAT THIS MEANS SECTION (Decision frame): six stakeholder cards \u2014 Appalachian producers, Permian producers, midstream, hyperscalers, utilities, private capital. Each card is one take + one decision. Lands the \"so what\" for the reader at every desk. FALSIFICATION BOARD: stress-test renamed \"What would change our mind.\" Two-column matrix \u2014 would-weaken (6 specific scenarios that would invalidate the thesis) vs would-strengthen (6 scenarios that would sharpen conviction). Skepticism as a feature, not a footnote.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.13", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Buyer reveal exhibit + vocabulary swap + brand statement + section title rewrites + quote-wall fix", "detail": "NEW EXHIBIT 10 (Buyer reveal): four-row table separating Legal buyer (utilities sign) / Economic buyer (hyperscalers pay) / Asset owner (balance-sheet duration) / Risk owner (where execution failure lands). Closing line on asymmetric risk. VOCABULARY SWAP: hero switcher buttons relabeled in reviewer's terms \u2014 Evidence universe / Net of overlap / Bankable molecules / Forecastable exposure / Derived burn / Pipes, not demand. Reader leaves with the vocabulary. BRAND STATEMENT: \"The contract ledger for America's AI power buildout \u2014 separating press-release megawatts from bankable molecules\" added above the H1 in small caps. SECTION TITLE REWRITES: 4 H2 rewrites in takeaway form \u2014 \"The ranking flips when you count contracts\" / \"Appalachia committed; the Permian announced\" / \"What 21.11 Bcf/d is \u2014 and is not\" / \"Every correction, in public.\" QUOTE-WALL: empty-state copy improved + 3 default quotes hard-coded as no-JS fallback (Toby Rice / Lanham Napier / Mahesh Thiagarajan) so crawlers and reduced-JS readers see real content, not \"No quotes match that filter.\"", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.14", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "2\u00d72 scoreboard, slope chart annotation, closing brand paragraph", "detail": "NEW EXHIBIT (Decision matrix): 2\u00d72 scoreboard \u2014 Track / Underwrite / Ignore / Watchlist \u2014 promotes the methodology evidence classes into the product UI. Each cell carries real example deals: Underwrite quadrant = EQT Homer City, Shippingport, Duke, KMI Trident, Project Jupiter; Watchlist quadrant = Chevron\u2013Microsoft exclusivity, VoltaGrid\u2013Oracle, PPL\u2013Blackstone, Diamondback in talks, SoftBank/AEP. Closing line: \"Most of the press lives in the bottom-right. Most of the bankable economics live in the top-right.\" SLOPE CHART ANNOTATION: takeaway sentence written directly on the chart \u2014 \"This is where Appalachia flips the race \u2014 July 2025, EQT\u2013Duke\" \u2014 restraint UX, paper-pill overlay with backdrop-blur. CLOSING BRAND PARAGRAPH: final landing block before the footer with the reviewer's 1000x-in-one-paragraph statement and the brand tagline. Highlighted phrases use an underline-trace gradient.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.15", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Trust-drift round 2 cleanup + sentence-level rewrites + key one-liner", "detail": "JSON META RECONCILED: deal_count, deal_count_in_total, tracker_count, watchlist_count, total_count, gross_mmcfd, gross_bcfd all recomputed from actual deals[]. published and data_through bumped 2026-04-28 \u2192 2026-04-29. Eliminates the count drift the reviewer caught (watchlist_count: 4 vs actual 5; total_count: 60 vs actual 61). VALIDATOR COUNT DRIFT: footer \"91 substantive checks\" \u2192 \"105 substantive checks\" \u2014 matches the trust dashboard. Reviewer was right: validator-count drift weakens the very audit box meant to create trust. CHANGELOG \"LATEST\" DRIFT: lower v3.4.0/v3.7.0/v3.3.0 historical blocks were each tagged \"Latest\" in warm-accent. Now only the v3.7.15 block carries Latest; older blocks read \"Historical\" in muted gray. CTA REWRITE: \"One email when v3.4 ships\" \u2192 \"Send a deal. Get the next ledger before it ships.\" Sharper operator/investor framing per reviewer. EXHIBIT RENUMBER: bibliography was a duplicate Exhibit 09; now Exhibit 12. BRAND LINE UPGRADE: \"The contract ledger for America's AI power buildout\" \u2192 \"The Gas-to-AI Tracker separates press-release megawatts from bankable molecules \u2014 and shows who controls the bottlenecks between gas supply and AI compute.\" KEY ONE-LINER added under number ladder: \"21.11 Bcf/d is the size of the chase. 4.89 Bcf/d is the part already underwritten by signed gas supply.\" SENTENCE REWRITES (3): Waha stranded-gas line; utility rate-base risk line; \"rest are renting\" \u2192 \"Everyone else is renting one layer of the stack.\"", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.16", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Validator green again + investor default = bankable molecules + buyer-rollup caveat next to chart", "detail": "VALIDATOR FIX: meta.gross_mmcfd and bucket-sum reconciliation checks now tolerate float-precision noise (<0.01 Bcf/d) instead of demanding exact match. 21108.4 vs 21108.399999999998 was a Python float-sum artifact; both are 21.11 Bcf/d to 2 decimals. Tightening was making the build red on a non-issue. INVESTOR DEFAULT: hero number switcher now defaults to BANKABLE MOLECULES (4.89 Bcf/d, operator-signed gas-supply only) instead of Evidence universe (21.11 Bcf/d, gross). Reviewer was right: 21.11 is the attention number; 4.89 is the underwriting number. The hero now leads with the defensible figure. Reader can still flip to Evidence universe / Net of overlap / Forecastable / Derived burn / Pipes-not-demand. BUYER-ROLLUP CAVEAT moved from footer-only to directly under the hyperscaler capex chart: \"Buyer rollups are Sunya-attributed based on named counterparties, tenants, or explicit project association. They are not self-disclosed aggregate Bcf/d commitments by Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, or Google.\" Protects against the most predictable Big-5 IR objection.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.17", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Per-row decision labels + market-context verdicts + jaw-drop pass on top 5 visuals", "detail": "PER-ROW DECISION LABEL added to ledger \u2014 every counted row gets one of four labels computed from volume_class \u00d7 evidence_class \u00d7 binding \u00d7 MMcf/d size: Underwrite (signed gas + \u2265250 MMcf/d + Class A); Track (signed but smaller, or modeled with primary source); Option value (positioning \u2265500 MMcf/d); Do not count yet (watchlist or low-evidence). New \"Decision\" column in the ledger, sortable, with restraint-pill styling. Reader sorts by Decision and gets the underwriting cut in one click. MARKET-CONTEXT VERDICTS \u2014 five cards (Equipment / Grid / Basis / Hyperscaler capex / LCOE) now lead with a one-line verdict in warm-accent under the eyebrow. \"Turbine slots, not gas molecules, are the near-term delivery constraint.\" \"Behind-the-meter is a response to queue failure, not a permanent business model.\" Etc. JAW-DROP PASS on the top 5 visuals: hero number ladder gets dimensional shadow + cell-hover lift + ambient arrow drift + permanent depth treatment on the active Bankable cell; trust dashboard gets soft elevation shadow + per-cell hover lift; hero stat gains an accent baseline rule that fades in after the number lands; stacked taxonomy gets hairline 1px dividers between segments so the bar reads as a real bar instead of stitched colors; slope-chart takeaway annotation gets warm drop-shadow.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.18", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Tallgrass row aggregation fix + map top-right overlay collision fix", "detail": "TALLGRASS ROW FIX: the Stratos / O'Leary deal had op = \"Tallgrass Energy (Ruby Pipeline) / West GenCo\" \u2014 too long for the bar chart label (truncated to \"Tallgrass Energy (Ru...\") and breaking the ticker-monogram fallback (computed \"TE(\" by taking first 3 chars of operator name including the open paren). Now op = \"Tallgrass Energy\" so it aggregates with the Project Jade row; structure_detail preserves the Ruby Pipeline + West GenCo context; op_ticker = \"TGE\" (the public ticker before Blackstone took it private). Project Jade ticker also bumped from \"Private (Blackstone-backed)\" to \"TGE\". MAP OVERLAY COLLISION: the v3.7.6 top-right corner stat overlay (CONUS \u00b7 56 COUNTED \u00b7 21.11 BCF/D / DEC 2024 \u2014 APR 2026) was painting on top of the map's existing \"DEAL SIZE \u00b7 MMcf/d\" legend \u2014 same coordinate space, both right-aligned at the top. Removed the overlay; the trust dashboard above the map already surfaces these counts.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.19", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Five visual moves + slop-detector copy cleanup", "detail": "FIVE VISUAL MOVES: (1) Hero number ladder count-up \u2014 IntersectionObserver triggers ease-out-cubic count-up from 0 to 21.11/19.66/9.33/4.89 with 140ms stagger, 1.2s duration each. (2) Operator bar chart gradient bars \u2014 4 SVG linearGradients (olive dark\u2192light, tan dark\u2192light) injected on render so the bars carry depth instead of flat fills. (3) Time-scrub glow \u2014 pulse animation tagged on circles when scrubber is active. (4) Slope chart annotation dot-trail \u2014 two faint warm dots fading off the left of the takeaway pill so it reads as the endpoint of a trail. (5) Findings ghosted ordinal numerals \u2014 large 800-weight 110px tabular-nums ordinal numerals at 5% opacity sit behind each finding card. Bloomberg Graphics trick. COPY CLEANUP from slop audit: (a) Varied \"AI's gas boom is not being misread because people missed the demand. It is being misread because they counted the wrong thing\" \u2014 broke the parallel \"is not / it is\" structure. (b) \"the strategic prize becomes clear\" \u2192 \"the prize is clear.\" (c) \"This is not a data-center siting story. It is the birth...\" \u2192 \"Not a data-center siting story. The birth...\" (d) \"That leaves the core result\" \u2192 \"Net result.\" (e) Diluted one em-dash chain to three sentence fragments. (f) \"Control stack \u00b7 The strategic map\" \u2192 \"Control stack \u00b7 Who owns what.\" Slop score should drop from 22 to ~12.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.20", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Mobile sweep on v3.7.10\u2013v3.7.19 additions", "detail": "Audited every new section/component shipped after v3.7.8 mobile pass. Two had NO mobile rules: WTM stakeholder cards (.wtm-grid) and ledger decision pill (.ledger-decision). Plus defensive tightening at \u2264720px on: hero number ladder (4-cell 2\u00d72 with smaller numerals + tighter padding so all 4 fit on 380px); hero switcher chips (smaller font); trust dashboard (2-col grid at \u2264720, 1-col at \u2264380); closing brand paragraph (font 1.18 \u2192 1.02rem); control stack cells (tighter padding, smaller winner pills); buyer reveal cells; falsification matrix list spacing; scoreboard 2\u00d72 (1-col stack at mobile); findings ghost ordinals (size capped at 48px); slope chart takeaway annotation (pill shrunk + dot-trail hidden so it doesn't fight the chart at narrow widths). New \u2264380px rule for iPhone SE / very narrow viewports collapses trust dashboard to 1-col and tightens switcher chips further.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.21", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Round-3 + round-4 reviewer audits: fabricated quotes, math errors, classification, polish", "detail": "CRITICAL FACTUAL FIXES from round-3 audit: (a) Mahesh Thiagarajan was misattributed as \"EVP, Energy Transfer\" \u2014 he is EVP, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. The Lanham Napier quote called him \"CEO, Lancium / VoltaGrid\" \u2014 he is Chairman, BorderPlex Digital Assets; Nathan Ough is VoltaGrid CEO. Both quotes were fabricated paraphrases. Replaced all three quote-wall fallback blockquotes with paraphrased company-language with correct attribution + \"paraphrased from release\" tag. No paraphrase claimed as direct quote. (b) Math: 19.8% headline \u2192 19.6% (21.11\u00f7107.7=19.60%). (c) Methodology: \"MW \u00d7 heat rate \u00f7 utilization\" \u2192 \"\u00d7 utilization.\" (d) \"52 of 56 rows have a specific year\" \u2192 \"53 of 56.\" (e) Capacity-factor policy: stress-test note tightened so 85% CF is clearly the AI-baseload exception, not the default; canonical default stays 75%. CLASSIFICATION FIXES: (f) 2\u00d72 scoreboard: EQT Homer City moved from Underwrite (Bankable molecules) to Watchlist (AIP, not yet definitive). KMI Trident moved from Underwrite to Watchlist (transport capacity, not commodity supply). Project Jupiter dropped from Underwrite (fuel-cell, separate sub-tier). Underwrite cell now has only true bankable rows: EQT Shippingport/Duke/Southern, Comstock Jones, Coterra CPV. Excluded note added directly under the cell explaining why each was moved. METHODOLOGY: 4-bucket split \u2192 5-bucket split with fuel_cell_burn (0.54 Bcf/d) added so 4.89 + 7.20 + 3.58 + 4.90 + 0.54 = 21.11 reconciles. ROUND-4 POLISH: (g) Footer \"Data as of: April 28\" \u2192 data-release-driven Apr 29. (h) \"17 months\" \u2192 \"16 months\" (Dec 2024 \u2192 Apr 2026 is 16). (i) Notify-me form text \"Notify me Used once, then deleted\" run-on \u2192 \"Notify me\" + small print \"Email used once, then deleted. We won't add you to anything else.\" (j) Aethon-Mitsubishi deal had operator_credit.name_resolved: \"Energy Transfer\" (data error) \u2192 corrected to \"Aethon Energy.\"", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.21", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Reviewer round-3 + round-4 audit cleanup; operator chart filter caveat", "detail": "Reviewer round-3 (33-item) + round-4 audit fixes shipped together: CRITICAL FACTUAL: Mahesh Thiagarajan misattributed as \"EVP, Energy Transfer\" (actually Oracle Cloud Infrastructure); Lanham Napier called \"CEO, Lancium / VoltaGrid\" (actually Chairman, BorderPlex Digital Assets \u2014 Nathan Ough is VoltaGrid CEO). Both paraphrased quotes were fabricated. Replaced all three quote-wall fallback blockquotes with paraphrased company-language with verified attribution + \"paraphrased from release\" tag. MATH: 19.8% \u2192 19.6%; \"\u00f7 utilization\" \u2192 \"\u00d7 utilization\"; 4-bucket \u2192 5-bucket split with fuel_cell_burn (~0.54 Bcf/d) so 4.89 + 7.20 + 3.58 + 4.90 + 0.54 = 21.11. validate.py engine extended to expose fuel_cell_bcfd metric. CLASSIFICATION: 2\u00d72 scoreboard reclassified \u2014 Homer City moved from Underwrite to Watchlist (AIP not definitive); Trident moved out (transport); Project Jupiter moved out (fuel-cell sub-tier). Underwrite cell now has only true bankable rows. POLISH: footer \"Apr 28\" \u2192 data-release-driven Apr 29; \"17 months\" \u2192 \"16 months\"; Notify-form text fixed; Voltagrid \u2192 VoltaGrid; \"Project Jupiter .\" period spacing; Aethon credit name_resolved corrected from Energy Transfer \u2192 Aethon Energy. METHODOLOGY: modeled-burn 3.25/3.58 reconciled (was P-point confusion); Project Jupiter 2.0 vs 2.45 GW reconciled; Homer City 2027 \u2192 2028 first-power caveat added; \"through April 26\" \u2192 \"through Apr 29.\" CHART CAVEAT: operator bar chart caption now explicitly states it does not respond to the hero number switcher and routes filtered views to analyst-mode universe-filter bar.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.22", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Forensic error pass: bucket math reconciled; print cover unstaled", "detail": "Forensic sweep on v3.7.21 caught 4 real issues: (1) Print stylesheet cover was stale \u2014 \"v3.4 \u00b7 Reconciled Edition \u00b7 April 28, 2026\" \u2014 now data-release-driven (v3.7.22 + Apr 29). Cover headline updated from old \"Texan/Appalachian\" thesis to new \"market is counting megawatts\" thesis. (2) THREE bucket values in the methodology 5-cell split were stale relative to actual computed totals from the dataset: modeled-burn shown as 3.58 Bcf/d (actual 2.92); positioning shown as 4.90 (actual 5.43); fuel-cell shown as 0.54 (actual 0.66). All three corrected. New reconciliation: 4.89 (signed) + 7.20 (transport) + 2.92 (modeled) + 5.43 (positioning) + 0.66 (fuel-cell) = 21.10 \u2248 21.11 \u2713. (3) Investigated apparent <script> open/close mismatch (33/31) \u2014 false positive from naive counter; the HTML parser confirms 31/31 balanced (the extra \"<script\" substrings live inside the embedded JSON narrative). (4) Confirmed: HTML embedded JSON parses cleanly; v3.7.22 is the only \"Latest\" version; no doubled-word typos in prose; 19.6% math reconciles 21.11\u00f7107.7. Validator: 105/105 still green.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.23", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Forensic round-2: source counts, operator name dupes, probability-weighted recompute", "detail": "Forensic sweep on v3.7.22 caught 4 real drift items: (1) Source counts stale: actual 200 entries / 180 unique URLs; HTML claimed 197 / 178. Updated 4 mentions across HTML. (2) Operator name dupes (same family as Tallgrass fix): \"ExxonMobil (CCS partner) / NextEra Energy (developer)\" \u2192 \"ExxonMobil\"; \"Range Resources (w/ Liberty Energy + Imperial Land)\" \u2192 \"Range Resources\"; \"VoltaGrid / Vantage Data Centers\" \u2192 \"VoltaGrid.\" Partner detail moved to partners[] array. Eliminates split bars in the operator chart. (3) Probability-weighted Bcf/d stale: page claimed 9.33, actual computed 9.14. Updated 7 hero/switcher/skeptic-test references. (4) Stress-test \"% of US dry gas\" stale: 19.8% \u2192 19.6% (math: 21.11\u00f7107.7=19.6%, already corrected elsewhere but skeptic panel was missed). OK / acceptable: TBD/placeholder mentions are all input-form attributes, not stale prose; date formats 100% YYYY-MM-DD; lat/lon all CONUS; no orphan source URLs; encoding clean. Validator: 105/105 still green.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.7.24", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Filter-sentence ledger + hero switcher reshapes operator chart (the math moves the page)", "detail": "From the v4 PRD critique \u2014 three highest-leverage moves that don't require redesign: (1) LEDGER FILTER SENTENCE: ledger row counter (\"14 of 56 deals\") replaced with full context sentence \u2014 \"14 of 56 deals \u00b7 4.89 Bcf/d \u00b7 91 sources \u00b7 all types matching 'EQT'.\" Reader gets the slice they're looking at in plain English. (2) HERO SWITCHER \u2192 OPERATOR CHART: clicking the hero number switcher now physically reshapes the operator bar chart. Click \"Bankable molecules\" \u2192 tan transport bars fade to 0.18 opacity. Click \"Pipes, not demand\" \u2192 olive producer bars fade. Click \"Derived burn\" \u2192 all bars dim to 0.30 (modeled is small). Click any of \"Forecastable\" or \"Net of overlap\" \u2192 all bars stay full. Theme: \"When the math changes, the page moves.\" Also wires map pins to the same data-hero-filter root attribute so they co-fade. Single CSS attribute switch + 320ms ease transition. Skipped: \"exhibit rooms\" PRD restructure (would kill SEO + scroll + corrections culture); \"full-viewport hero map\" (kills mobile + thesis-first reading); skeuomorphic stamps. Held for next product cycle: \"Build the AI Power Stack\" hyperscaler-pick interactive \u2014 ~1 week, real product feature, not a polish move.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.8.0", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Build the AI Power Stack \u2014 hyperscaler-pick underwriting interactive", "detail": "NEW SECTION: \"Build the AI Power Stack\" \u2014 pick a hyperscaler (Microsoft / Meta / Oracle/OpenAI / AWS / Google / Applied Digital), and the 5-link control-stack chain assembles from actual ledger rows: Molecules \u2192 Movement \u2192 Conversion \u2192 Permission \u2192 Credit. Each link classifies as OK / Partial / Blocked / Gap based on the buyer's rows: signed gas + binding status (Molecules); transport-capacity rows or integrated operator partners (Movement); equipment-ordered rows + OEM mentions (Conversion); utility wrappers + critical_path_constraint (Permission); definitive count (Credit). Outputs: deliverability score (0\u201310) = bankable share \u00d7 0.4 + definitive share \u00d7 0.3 + average maturity \u00d7 0.3, computed live from the ledger. Bankable gas total. Primary constraint (most common critical_path_constraint with detail on tied/secondary). Deal count. All numbers computed at runtime from DEALS \u2014 nothing hardcoded per buyer. Cinematic enter animation: 5 links cascade in 130ms apart on each buyer change. This is the underwriting-terminal feature the v4 PRD called for \u2014 real product, not polish.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.8.1", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Killed fabricated v3.8 roadmap block + SVG export bug fixes", "detail": "CRITICAL FABRICATION REMOVED: the \"WITHDRAWAL MOVE v3.4 preview\" / \"On the v3.8 roadmap\" block contained fabricated forward-looking metrics: \"+8 Tier-1 deals already drafted\" / \"3 Operator P&L deep-dives behind paywall\" / \"May 15 public release \u00b7 subscribers get it 14d earlier\" / \"2 sponsor slots remaining for the next edition.\" None of those numbers were grounded in actual roadmap or commitments. Replaced with a simple, honest reader prompt: \"Working on a deal we should be tracking? Spotted an error in a row? Send it.\" Direct mailto link to hello@sunyascoop.com. SVG EXPORT FIX (the user reported \"other charts busted on preview\"): two real bugs in exportFrameAsSvg. (1) hero-filter dimming was leaking into exports \u2014 when \"Bankable molecules\" was active and a user clicked SVG download, tan midstream bars were exported at 0.18 opacity. Now we temporarily clear data-hero-filter on documentElement before reading computed styles. (2) cinematic enter animations mid-flight: if a user clicked SVG before the bar drawIn / dot pop / path drawOn finished, those mid-state transforms/opacities/dashoffsets got inlined. Now we strip is-cine and is-visible classes, animation/transition properties on live elements, reset stroke-dashoffset to 0, force a reflow, then read computed styles. Live state restored after the export so the page isn't left broken. Belt-and-suspenders post-reset on the clone catches any remaining scale(0)/opacity:0/dashoffset>0 stragglers.", "impact_bcfd": 0 }, { "version": "v3.8.2", "date": "2026-04-29", "correction": "Killed ghost-numeral CSS that was breaking the sharecard area on every finding", "detail": "User reported \"sharecard stuff looks busted.\" Diagnosis: in v3.7.19, I added a Bloomberg \"chapter page\" ghost-numeral treatment to .finding .finding-num \u2014 making the ordinal absolute-positioned at top-right of each card at clamp(64px, 9vw, 110px) and 5% opacity, behind the body via z-index:0. BUG: the .finding card uses display:grid with grid-template-columns: 88px 1fr \u2014 the original ordinal was meant to sit in the LEFT 88px column inline. position:absolute pulled it out of the grid flow, leaving the left column visually empty AND parking a giant translucent \"01\"/\"02\"/\"03\" in the top-right where the .finding-share button lives. The button was still clickable (pointer-events:none on the numeral) but the sharecard preview area visually was a mess. FIX: removed the v3.7.19 ghost-numeral CSS override + matching mobile rule. Original inline left-column ordinal at line 1240 takes back over (font: 600 2.4rem var(--serif), accent color, opacity 0.75 \u2014 the small green numeral that was working). The chapter-page trick was a polish move that didn't fit this 2-column grid; killing it cleanly.", "impact_bcfd": 0 } ], "corrections_log_total_impact_bcfd": -4.48, "eia_aeo_2024_gas_demand": { "reference_case_2025_bcfd": 89.5, "reference_case_2030_bcfd": 96.0, "reference_case_2040_bcfd": 102.5, "reference_case_2050_bcfd": 105.8, "sectors_2030": { "electric_power_bcfd": 36.5, "electric_power_share_pct": 38, "industrial_bcfd": 25.0, "industrial_share_pct": 26, "lng_export_bcfd": 22.5, "lng_export_share_pct": 23, "residential_commercial_bcfd": 12.0, "residential_commercial_share_pct": 13 }, "note": "2030 reference case: 96 Bcf/d total demand. AI data center share: ~10-15% under our base scenario (vs reference case which under-projected DC growth). Tracker base case (11.3 Bcf/d delivered) = ~12% of 2030 reference power-sector gas demand.", "source": "EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2024", "confidence": "verified" }, "large_load_interconnection_rules": { "PJM_LLI": { "rule": "Large Load Customer Tariff (Schedule 19)", "threshold_mw": 75, "requirements": [ "12-month load forecast", "capacity reservation fee", "transmission upgrade cost responsibility", "right of first refusal for incremental capacity" ], "note": "PJM 2025 reform: tightened cost-allocation for new large loads. AI data centers >75 MW required to commit to capacity reservation.", "source": "PJM Manual 14, Schedule 19", "confidence": "verified" }, "ERCOT_LLI": { "rule": "Section 39 ERCOT Protocols + new \"Large Loads\"", "threshold_mw": 100, "requirements": [ "ERCOT registration", "load forecasting requirements", "firm transmission service" ], "note": "Texas SB 0006 (2025) added oversight for >100 MW loads. Reform under SB 6 sequel pending in 2026 legislative session.", "source": "ERCOT Protocols + Texas legislation", "confidence": "verified" }, "thesis": "Both PJM and ERCOT have moved to charge new large loads for the transmission and capacity costs they impose. This shifts cost allocation from existing ratepayers to AI customers \u2014 a key ratepayer-protection mechanism." }, "federal_executive_actions_2025_2026": [ { "order": "EO 14154 \u2014 Unleashing American Energy", "date": "2025-01-20", "effect": "Reverses Biden EO restrictions on oil/gas leasing + LNG export pause + EV mandates. Restores leasing on federal lands. Streamlines pipeline approvals.", "impact_on_tracker": "Tailwind for new pipeline construction (Trident, Warrior, Williams Power Innovation). Reduces some permitting friction.", "confidence": "verified" }, { "order": "EO 14156 \u2014 Declaring National Energy Emergency", "date": "2025-01-20", "effect": "Invokes emergency authorities to expedite energy infrastructure permits. Targets pipelines, gas plants, transmission.", "impact_on_tracker": "Major tailwind for permitting speed. Affects FERC, EPA, BLM coordination. Specifically called out gas-fired AI generation.", "confidence": "verified" }, { "order": "NEPA Reform Phase 1", "date": "2025-04-15", "effect": "Trump admin streamlined NEPA environmental review. 2-year cap on EIS process. Categorical exclusions broadened.", "impact_on_tracker": "Reduces permit fragility for federal-land or interstate projects. Faster EIS reviews.", "confidence": "verified" }, { "order": "FERC Permitting Reform Memorandum", "date": "2025-09-12", "effect": "Trump admin appointees at FERC issued reform memo: streamlined CP filings, expedited blanket certificates, reduced environmental review for natural gas pipelines.", "impact_on_tracker": "Direct tailwind for ET Project Jupiter / Green Chile, KMI Trident, Williams projects.", "confidence": "verified" }, { "order": "IRA Section 45Q + 45Y/48E Status", "date": "Ongoing 2025-2026", "effect": "IRA tax credits remain in place. Several efforts to repeal/modify failed in 2025 reconciliation. Treasury issuing implementation guidance.", "impact_on_tracker": "IRA credits remain available for CCS-attached and clean-electricity-qualifying projects. Most gas-fired data center plants not directly eligible without CCS.", "confidence": "verified" }, { "order": "EPA NSPS / Mercury Air Standards Update", "date": "2025-11-01", "effect": "Trump admin proposed rollback of Biden-era New Source Performance Standards on gas turbines. Lower NOx and CO2 emissions thresholds for new gas plants.", "impact_on_tracker": "Reduces emissions-control capex burden on new gas-fired plants. Tailwind for IPP construction equity.", "confidence": "inferred" } ], "glossary": [ { "term": "gross_bcfd", "definition": "Sum of disclosed MMcf/d across counted deals (excludes watchlist).", "category": "volume", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "net_bcfd", "definition": "Gross minus identified named-chain overlap (~1.45 Bcf/d in EQT-Duke/Southern via Williams Transco SESE).", "category": "volume", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "volume_class", "definition": "One of: signed-gas-supply / transport-capacity / modeled-burn / fuel_cell_burn / positioning. Determines what the MMcf/d figure actually represents.", "category": "volume", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "ai_demand_attribution", "definition": "strict / adjacent / speculative \u2014 how strongly the demand is tied to disclosed AI/data-center buildout.", "category": "volume", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "contract_binding_status", "definition": "definitive / agreement_in_principle / exclusivity / tariff_or_regulatory_filing / positioning \u2014 the legal state of the underlying contract.", "category": "contract", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "power_to_compute_maturity", "definition": "0\u201310 score: 0\u20132 rumor; 3\u20134 gas source identified / AIP; 5\u20136 permits filed\u2192approved; 7\u20138 equipment ordered / FID; 9\u201310 under construction / energized.", "category": "execution", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "first_power_quarter", "definition": "Best-effort expected first-power quarter, derived from first_power_year + binding status.", "category": "execution", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "ultimate_ai_buyer", "definition": "Named hyperscaler / AI buyer behind the deal (e.g., Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, OpenAI, xAI).", "category": "counterparty", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "scarcity_score", "definition": "1\u20135: does this row control a scarce/permissioned asset (gas, pipe, equipment, permits, water, interconnection).", "category": "investability", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "bankability_score", "definition": "1\u20135: based on contract binding + named buyer credit. Definitive + investment-grade hyperscaler = 5.", "category": "investability", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "deployability_score", "definition": "1\u20135: based on first_power_year + maturity score. Under construction with FPY\u22642027 = 5.", "category": "investability", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "moat_score", "definition": "1\u20135: based on contract longevity, integrated chain, locked permits, pipe-capacity exclusivity.", "category": "investability", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "exit_score", "definition": "1\u20135: based on operator role + named buyer + contract definiteness. Pipeline + hyperscaler-named + definitive = 5.", "category": "investability", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "investability_total", "definition": "Sum of 5 scores (1\u201325). >18 high; 13\u201317 medium; <13 low.", "category": "investability", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "pe_archetype", "definition": "One of: permitted_dev_rights / equipment_platform / midstream_brownfield / pre_fid_structured_equity / compliance_infra / hyperscaler_owned / producer_balance_sheet / utility_rate_base / ipp_construction_equity / pre_announcement_avoid / unclassified. Editorial classification.", "category": "investability", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "capital_need_category", "definition": "Whether external capital is actually needed (and accessible to PE).", "category": "investability", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "counterparty_credit / operator_credit", "definition": "S&P plus Moodys issuer ratings + tier classification (highest_grade / investment_grade / crossover / speculative_public / speculative / private_*).", "category": "credit", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "lcoe_low/mid/high_usd_mwh", "definition": "Public-formula LCOE range: heat_rate \u00d7 (HH + basin basis) + capex (Lazard 2024) + O&M. Range, not point estimate. Confidence: estimate.", "category": "economics", "confidence": "estimate" }, { "term": "permit_fragility_score", "definition": "0\u20135: derived from risk_flags + critical_path_constraint + binding status. Active litigation = +3.", "category": "risk", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "sponsor_balance_sheet_category", "definition": "public_investment_grade / public_speculative / private_disclosure_dependent / unknown. From operator name match.", "category": "credit", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "hyperscaler_procurement_intent", "definition": "Per-buyer summary of procurement preferences from public statements / Climate Pledge / 10-K disclosures.", "category": "counterparty", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "downside_fallback_use", "definition": "What the asset becomes if AI demand pauses. Editorial reasoning per volume_class + operator_role.", "category": "risk", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "state_regulatory_regime", "definition": "4-axis state regulatory profile: permit_speed / ai_political / queue_health / community_floor (1\u20135 each).", "category": "regulatory", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "ferc_docket", "definition": "FERC docket attribution where confidently identifiable. Status: pre-filing / under_construction / filed / final.", "category": "regulatory", "confidence": "verified" }, { "term": "equipment_slot_status", "definition": "disclosed_secured / disclosed_in_negotiation / disclosed_uncertain / reclassified_to_fuel_cell / n_a_pipe_only / not_disclosed.", "category": "execution", "confidence": "verified-where-disclosed" }, { "term": "ira_tax_credits", "definition": "Per-row applicable IRA credit eligibility: 45Q (CCS), 45Y/48E (clean electricity), 45V (hydrogen).", "category": "economics", "confidence": "inferred" }, { "term": "fuel_cell_math", "definition": "For volume_class:fuel_cell_burn rows: SOFC effective heat rate ~6.8 MMBtu/MWh \u00d7 ~80% effective CF (storage swap) \u00f7 1,032 Btu/cf \u2248 0.1264 MMcf/d per MW.", "category": "volume", "confidence": "verified" } ], "confidence_labels": { "verified": "Public-record-confirmed fact (credit ratings, named buyers, equipment orders, regulatory dockets). Sourced.", "inferred": "Derived from existing fields via deterministic rule (PE archetype, downside fallback, permit fragility, maturity score).", "estimate": "Formula-derived range (LCOE; project-specific costs can shift \u00b120%).", "low_confidence": "Honest default when no public source is available (most equipment slots without specific disclosures).", "not_disclosed": "Explicitly marked as unknown." }, "citations_index": { "gross_bcfd_21_11": { "claim": "21.11 Bcf/d gross disclosed gas-to-AI exposure", "source": "Sunya Research deal database", "url": "#ledger", "date": "2026-04-29", "confidence": "verified", "note": "Sum of mmcfd across 56 counted deals. See ledger for per-deal sources." }, "net_bcfd_19_66": { "claim": "19.66 Bcf/d net after named-chain overlap", "source": "Sunya Research methodology", "url": "#method", "date": "2026-04-29", "confidence": "verified", "note": "21.11 - 1.45 (EQT-Duke/Southern via Williams Transco SESE overlap)" }, "us_dry_gas_107_7": { "claim": "US 2026 dry gas production 107.7 Bcf/d", "source": "EIA STEO", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/", "date": "2026-04-15", "confidence": "verified" }, "pjm_269_92": { "claim": "PJM RTO 2025/26 base capacity cleared at $269.92/MW-day", "source": "PJM 2025/26 RPM auction results", "url": "https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/rpm", "date": "2025-07-30", "confidence": "verified" }, "pjm_dom_444": { "claim": "PJM Dominion zone $444.26/MW-day", "source": "PJM 2025/26 zonal capacity results", "url": "https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/rpm", "date": "2025-07-30", "confidence": "verified" }, "gev_110_gw": { "claim": "110+ GW combined gas turbine + slot reservation backlog", "source": "GE Vernova Q1 2026 earnings call", "url": "https://www.gevernova.com/news/press-releases", "date": "2026-04-22", "confidence": "verified" }, "msft_capex_88b": { "claim": "Microsoft FY26 capex guide $88B", "source": "MSFT 10-Q + Q1 2026 earnings call", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor", "date": "2026-04-25", "confidence": "verified" }, "amzn_capex_105b": { "claim": "Amazon FY26 capex guide $105B", "source": "AMZN 10-K + Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com", "date": "2026-04-30", "confidence": "verified" }, "meta_capex_65b": { "claim": "Meta FY26 capex guide $65B", "source": "META 10-K + Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://investor.fb.com", "date": "2026-04-25", "confidence": "verified" }, "goog_capex_75b": { "claim": "Alphabet FY26 capex guide $75B", "source": "GOOGL 10-K + Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://abc.xyz/investor", "date": "2026-04-25", "confidence": "verified" }, "orcl_capex_45b": { "claim": "Oracle FY26 capex guide $45B", "source": "ORCL 10-K + Q1 2026 earnings", "url": "https://investor.oracle.com", "date": "2026-03-12", "confidence": "verified" }, "dominion_88_gw_2039": { "claim": "Dominion Energy Virginia: 88 GW peak demand by 2039", "source": "Dominion 2024 IRP", "url": "https://www.dominionenergy.com/projects-and-facilities/electric-projects/integrated-resource-plan", "date": "2024-05-01", "confidence": "verified" }, "ercot_130_gw_2030": { "claim": "ERCOT: 130 GW peak demand by 2030 forecast", "source": "ERCOT 2025 SARA + 7-year forecast", "url": "http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource", "date": "2025-12-01", "confidence": "verified" }, "plaquemines_3_4_bcfd": { "claim": "Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 capacity 3.4 Bcf/d", "source": "Venture Global IR / FERC docket", "url": "https://venturglobal.com", "date": "2024-09-01", "confidence": "verified" }, "rio_grande_5_4_bcfd": { "claim": "Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 capacity 5.4 Bcf/d", "source": "NextDecade 10-K + FERC docket CP19-67", "url": "https://nextdecade.com", "date": "2025-Q4", "confidence": "verified" }, "eo_14156_emergency": { "claim": "EO 14156 \u2014 National Energy Emergency", "source": "White House", "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/", "date": "2025-01-20", "confidence": "verified" }, "ares_rover_2026_04_29": { "claim": "Ares acquires Rover Pipeline stake from Blackstone", "source": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/ares-acquire-rover-natgas-pipeline-stake-blackstone-2026-04-29/", "date": "2026-04-29", "confidence": "verified" }, "applied_digital_7_5b": { "claim": "Applied Digital signs $7.5B 15-year hyperscaler lease (300 MW)", "source": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/applied-digital-signs-75-billion-ai-data-center-lease-with-us-hyperscaler-2026-04-23/", "date": "2026-04-23", "confidence": "verified" }, "homer_city_eqt_665k": { "claim": "Homer City: EQT to source/supply 665,000 MMBtu/d", "source": "BusinessWire / Homer City Redevelopment", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250715006970/", "date": "2025-07-15", "confidence": "verified" }, "et_cloudburst_450k": { "claim": "Energy Transfer / CloudBurst: 450,000 MMBtu/d firm gas (10+ years)", "source": "Energy Transfer IR", "url": "https://ir.energytransfer.com/news-releases/news-release-details/energy-transfer-and-cloudburst-sign-agreement-natural-gas-supply", "date": "2025-02-10", "confidence": "verified" }, "pacifico_7_65_gw": { "claim": "Pacifico GW Ranch 7.65 GW permitted", "source": "Pacifico Energy", "url": "https://www.pacificoenergy.com/post/pacifico-energy-secures-7-65-gw-power-generation-permit-for-gw-ranch-project", "date": "2026-01-26", "confidence": "verified" }, "jupiter_2_45_gw": { "claim": "Project Jupiter: up to 2.45 GW Bloom fuel cells (replaces gas turbines)", "source": "Oracle Newsroom", "url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/oracle-borderplex-and-bloom-energy-to-power-project-jupiter-with-fuel-cell-technology-2026-04-27/", "date": "2026-04-27", "confidence": "verbatim_verified" }, "naacp_xai_apr_2026": { "claim": "NAACP filed lawsuit alleging unpermitted gas turbines at xAI Southaven/Colossus 2", "source": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/naacp-sues-musks-xai-alleging-illegal-operation-gas-turbines-2026-04-14/", "date": "2026-04-14", "confidence": "verified" }, "meta_entergy_5_2_gw": { "claim": "Meta-Entergy revised structure: 7 plants totaling >5.2 GW", "source": "Reuters / Entergy IR", "url": "https://www.entergy.com/news/entergy-louisiana-announces-a-new-agreement-with-meta-that-will-deliver-an-additional-2b-in-customer-savings", "date": "2026-03-27", "confidence": "verified" }, "softbank_aep_9_2_gw": { "claim": "SoftBank/AEP Portsmouth: 10 GW data center + 9.2 GW gas", "source": "U.S. Department of Commerce", "url": "https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2026/03/commerce-and-energy-departments-announce-partnership-ensure-affordable", "date": "2026-03-20", "confidence": "verified" }, "nextera_japan_10_gw": { "claim": "NextEra: agreements expected within 3 months on ~10 GW gas-fired DC projects (PA + TX)", "source": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nextera-energy-beats-first-quarter-profit-estimates-2026-04-23/", "date": "2026-04-23", "confidence": "verified" }, "nrel_atb_2024": { "claim": "NREL Annual Technology Baseline 2024", "source": "NREL", "url": "https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/", "date": "2024-08-15", "confidence": "verified" }, "lazard_lcoe_2024": { "claim": "Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy v17 (2024)", "source": "Lazard", "url": "https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energyplus/", "date": "2024-06-01", "confidence": "verified" }, "williams_power_innov_7_3b": { "claim": "Williams Power Innovation series ~$7.3B capex; 5x build multiples", "source": "Williams Feb 2026 analyst day", "url": "https://investor.williams.com", "date": "2026-02-15", "confidence": "verified" }, "gev_q1_2026_outlook": { "claim": "GE Vernova lifts 2026 outlook on AI demand", "source": "Reuters / GEV", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ge-vernova-lifts-annual-revenue-forecast-data-center-demand-2026-04-22/", "date": "2026-04-22", "confidence": "verified" }, "homer_city_corey_hessen_2025_07_15": { "claim": "Homer City Redevelopment & EQT agreement-in-principle (4.4 GW)", "source": "BusinessWire", "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250715006970/", "date": "2025-07-15", "confidence": "verbatim_verified" }, "entergy_57b_2026_04_29": { "title": "Entergy posts higher Q1 profit on strong data center demand; raises capex", "publisher": "Reuters", "date": "2026-04-29", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/utility-entergy-posts-higher-first-quarter-profit-strong-data-center-demand-2026-04-29/", "context": "Entergy raised its 4-year capex plan to $57B, citing data center demand and up to ~12 GW of pipeline." }, "solaris_600_mw_2026_04_28": { "title": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure Q1 2026 results \u2014 >600 MW behind-the-meter commentary", "publisher": "Solaris Energy Infrastructure (NYSE: SEI)", "date": "2026-04-28", "url": "https://investors.solarisenergy.com/", "context": "Solaris flagged >600 MW of behind-the-meter mobile/modular gas-fired generation tied to data center customers; watchlist (no signed gas-supply MMcf/d)." }, "voltagrid_oracle_oct_2025": { "title": "VoltaGrid lands 1+ GW Oracle data center power deal", "publisher": "Reuters", "date": "2025-10-15", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/voltagrid-lands-1-gw-data-center-power-deal-with-oracle-2025-10-15/", "context": "Original VoltaGrid\u2013Oracle 1.4 GW gas turbine deal announced Oct 15, 2025; later expanded into the Energy Transfer Project Jupiter green chile reclassification (Apr 27, 2026)." } } }